Member Info for BouncyDeadCat

I run 2 businesses and I have never done a deal or have had another business enter into a partnership with my business only to then try and 'weaken' my business against theirs. It simply doesn't make business sense to act like this.

Chariot have a very good relationship with ONHYM and the Moroccan government, these two entities want gas asap. For a partner to come in, only to then drag their feet with stalling tactics just won't wash with the Moroccans. Also, all of the noises coming out of Energean to its own shareholders regarding Anchois is that they want to crack on with developing it asap. So I think Mrplow is just fear bating.

Mrplow,

It's also correct to point out that all is not lost even if Loukos were to come up short. There are other backstops such as offshore Anchois (farmed in) with drilling happening 6 months after Loukos (H2 2024).

I believe Project Nour - that Chariot founded - is the 2nd largest proposed Hydrogen project in the world, there's also the green energy business that's likely being paired off with the clean energy trading platform as well.

Buying in post-Loukos results (providing the drill results are positive), even at say +45% on the day, may be the better risk/reward option for some.

However, for me, SDX have already proved there's commerical gas under Loukos, Chariot have just defined better drilling targets and extraction locations. So I think the odds are very good, especially at the current SP.

I could be wrong, but being wrong is not going to financially ruin me, sure it'll sting. Like a lot. But not ruin. Position size accordingly.

Gooner,

The fact that the company are already talking about Loukos in terms of production, suggests they know exactly where the gas is located, or rather, exactly where enough of the easily extractable gas is to be found. In conjunction, they also have a very gas-hungry industrial sector who is crying out for more gas. This market it literally on their doorstep - an instant ready & willing customer base to immediately sell in to.

If they are wrong about Loukos, then short term, look out below, all hopes would then have to be placed on the offshore AE drill and our deal/relationship with Energean.

Gooner,

Go back and read my original message. 18p on spud day AE offshore drilling which is post-Loukos onshore drilling.

Gooner,

Yep, still think if drilling onshore Loukos is a success then we go into AE offshore drilling at around 18p.

The best buys of my investing life have been done when I felt slightly sick making the trade. They've always been the ones that have made me the most amount of money.

Must admit, I felt more than a little queezy buying another tranche @ 7.57p this morning.

The drill bit will be moving into our Loukos licence within 4-5 weeks and Duncan Wallace & David Brecknock are two of the best in the business when it comes to finding & drilling for hydrocarbons (especially in proven fairways).

In 2020 I bought a good chunk of RR. @ 80p (not quite the absolute bottom, but close). This was during a time when everyone was saying it was going to go bust because of the pandemic-induced financial distruction of RR's balance sheet. It was an uncomfortable purchase at the time, but RR. is now @ £3.59. The demand for flight isn't/wasn't suddenly going to dry up forever, nor is the demand for gas as a source of energy and fuel. The uncomfortable periods just need to be waited out.

I've found myself in discussion(s) with bad faith actors on here before. Best thing to do is quickly correct any misinformation with facts and links and then end the discussion.

Never wrestle with pigs.

The pig enjoys it.

You get dirty.

If through drilling AE, we get offshore Anchois above 1Tcf that's able to produce 200mmscfd, then sure 100p is possible in a few years.

But first we need to walk before we can run. Onshore has the potential to make the company self-sustaining and profitable. I think onshore has the potential to cover all of our G&A as well as fund more future onshore wells that will further build up the company's balance sheet, and I see Anchois as this massive royalty asset that we have a decent stake in. I think developing onshore production quickly and cheaply is the right strategy to get the company to positive cashflow.

Cavendish believe the upscaled development of Anchois could support production rates in excess of 150MMscf/d. And assuming Energean exercise their option to acquire the additional 10%, they value Chariot’s net 20% carried interest in Anchois at US$595m or 71p per share.

So, if production is increased to 200MMscf/d come FID, then 100p fits Cavendishes existing model.

Mrplow,

See slide 12.

High historic success rate of 80-85%.

Geological similarity to Chariot’s offshore portfolio.

https://chariotenergygroup.com/app/uploads/2023/09/AGM_070923_Presentation_Final_noapp.pdf

Can't remember where I saw 65%-85% specific to Chariot's Loukos targets (Maybe it was RNS or the post-partnering presentation, can't remeber), but Chariot's upcoming targets have similar CoS as historic drills in the same region.

Henry,

I don't think Chariot would have applied (and received) EIA and permit approval to drill and produce from up to 20 onshore wells within the next 5 years if they weren't planning to expand Loukos onshore gas production further.

If Gaufrette and Dartois are successful and they start producing circa US$25m per well per year, then I think they'll just keep drilling. At $3m per well for $20-25m per year in revenue, it's a no-brainer for Chariot to keep expanding onshore and probably why Auctus has taken such a positive view on the stock.

It's always good to get different perspectives, but let's try and agree to disagree in good faith, both on the positive side as well as the negative.

According to Auctus, each of the two wells being drilled (next month?) could be brought on stream this year (2024) and could produce 5 mmcf/d each in 2025.

From Auctus dated Jan 29, 2024.

The first prospect to be drilled will be Gaufrette (in line with previous indications). A success could unlock 26 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.06 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.

The most likely second prospect to be drilled will be Dartois. A success could derisk 20 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.05 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.

A successful discovery could be brought on stream by YE24. We currently forecast that Gaufrette or Dartois could produce ~5 mmcf/d in 2025, generating US$24 mm of after tax operating cashflow per year with overall development capex of US$28 mm (including exploration drilling). We re-iterate our target price of £0.50 per share.

“everything is riding on the back of the next offshore drill now”.

Not true. If onshore is a success (and with 65%-85% CoS, there is a high chance that it will be), then Chariot head on to offshore drilling later in the year in a much stronger position.

It's my guess that if March's onshore drilling campaign is a success, we approach offshore drilling later in H2 2024 at around the 18p mark. Just my view.

Yes, there is risk. There is always risk when it comes to O&G drilling. Chariot's onshore drilling, even at a whopping 65%-85% CoS could still disappoint. However unlikely that is, it could happen.

However, what's also just as likely to happen is that one or both of the wells finds way more gas than anticipated.

To me, Chariots onshore drilling is 2/3 odds on. Which are very good odds.

Scenario 1. As expected. 5 mmcf/d per well.

Scenario 2. Unexpected downside. Duster/non-commercial.

Scenario 3. Massive unexpected upside (Dartois?).

Etana are buying the power from renewable sources and selling it to the commercial/Industry/residential sectors.

Essentially, Etana is to the Hydroelectric plant as Vivo is to Chariot.

If Chariot were to spin this off into a separate business as has been hinted to in the past; what I suspect they would do is roll Etana and the renewables business together into one so that they're able to trade their own excess renewable energy supply, as well as facilitating the trading of other sources they don't own. You can easily see how this could be a very scalable business in its own right, not just in the country of South Africa, but across the entire continent. AP has a wealth of contacts across the whole of Africa.

But first they need to build the business up, hopefully we see a lot more of these trade agreements being announced. The beauty of this business is that it's very low capex.

It's actually 5 out of 6 Directors that have bought in the past 2 weeks.

Adonis Pouroulis (CEO)

George Canjar (Non-Exec Chariman)

Julian Maurice-Williams (CFO)

Duncan Wallace (CTO)

Chris Zeal (Non-Exec)

Fernan,

The futures market was created for the sole purpose of buying & selling a commodity you don't yet have, that's deliverable at some specified date in the future.

I'm not saying Chariot will sign a supply contract with Vivo until the wells have been drilled, the gas found and the pipes are in the process of being connected to industry. By the time Chariot is at the stage whereby it's about to start laying the connecting pipes to industry, the future delivery of said gas is no more at risk than gas that's deliverable via any other pipeline that's been in situ for a decade or more that still remains at risk of a random terrorist strike or natural disaster etc.

If the contract was for Chariot to supply Vivo with say $25m worth of gas in 2026, Chariot could borrow against that contract going into 2025.

It would be Vivo that would hedge the (future) price which they agree to pay Chariot for its gas in 2026.

Auctus give the figure of $28m as the total cost to get to operating cashflow for onshore, which includes exploration drilling as well as development capex.

Chariot have the $19m from July's fund raise, $10m coming in this quarter from Energean and $15m at FID (expected 2nd half of 2024) = $44m total.

I imagine that in order to cover G&A and have enough ongoing liquidity going into 2025, Char will likely forward-sell its gas on the futures market through its Moroccan partner Vivo Energy.

From Auctus

The first prospect to be drilled will be Gaufrette (in line with previous indications). A success could unlock 26 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.06 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.

The most likely second prospect to be drilled will be Dartois. A success could derisk 20 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.05 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.

A successful discovery could be brought on stream by YE24. We currently forecast that Gaufrette or Dartois could produce ~5 mmcf/d in 2025, generating US$24 mm of after tax operating cashflow per year with overall development capex of US$28 mm (including exploration drilling).  We re-iterate our target price of £0.50 per share.

Almost impossible to prove spoofing as there's no execution trail to follow.

Anyone else notice the 400k sell spoofing that's been happening on level 2?

Big sells on the order book that magically vanish against matching buy orders which then reappear at an even lower price once the price drops a little to fill.

It's called spoofing and the intent is to frighten the buy side.

Probably because the strategy is programmed to not raise the offer (yet) or to not add to the offer on any rise (no matter how small) until a certain quota is achieved. Read the article, it's amazing the amount of variables that can be programmed into an automated trading system program.

"Traders and investors can turn precise entry, exit, and money management rules into automated trading systems that allow computers to execute and monitor the trades. One of the biggest attractions of strategy automation is that it can take some of the emotion out of trading since trades are automatically placed once certain criteria are met."

"Once the rules have been established, the computer can monitor the markets to find buy or sell opportunities based on the trading strategy's specifications. Depending on the specific rules, as soon as a trade is entered, any orders for protective stop losses, trailing stops and profit targets will be automatically generated."

A trading strategy can take weeks or months to achieve an objective and multiple objectives can be deployed over a number of years.