Are you seriously that stupid Thornback? Read your own words man.
Is the rights issue underwritten? What happens of the Dr and Pension Fund dont take up their entitlement?
Assuming they do, then there would be approx 1.75 billion shares in issue on a fully diluted basis (Dr and Pension Fund have convertible note instruments). There are people still posting here that previously said dilution didn't matter - do they still think this way.
Whoever TG thinks he has pre-agreed to sell the licences to had better not drive too hard a bargain - Africa has a way to squeeze you when the cards are not dealt in your favour. There is also the potentially significant matter of Tenement Risk - hopefully it is nothing more than a supposed new computer system glitch. 6 months and counting to fix a glitch - hmmm, well lets hope Ministry of Mines are being truthful. If so, it speaks to incredible incompetence.
These funds are stated on the announcements as for use to finish off the pilot project 10MW, tx line and sub-station connection. 13m aussie dollar to finish off the remainder of the project. If this rights issue falls flat, GG might be the one turning off the lights rather than other way round.
Of course, none of this matters in the slightest to most who post here.
Https://www.chronicle.co.zw/government-pushes-for-development-of-lupane-coal-bed-methane-gas-fields/
Orapa buying power from the grid - most stupid thing i ever read here;
BPC want gas heading north - next most stupid thing i ever read here;
Mamba - of course i dont kow, but i doubt Tlou will ever drill a well on Mamba. If current pilot works, they expand from localised infrastructure. Would not surprise me if they relinquish Mamba - but either way, it isnt important any time soon;
Gas pipeline - unlikely to ever happen; certainly not in the next 5, maybe 10 years;
The future could be big, elephant big - goodness how many times in the last 10 yers have we heard that. Bring back Tidd;
Sorry, couldnt help myself. You are back talking nonsense.
Paid influencer - that made me laugh. Tell me how you think I earn my money ?
Https://youtu.be/ye3zEYQR3BE
What do people make of this pitch from Ben? I think the potential here is verging on incredible - but it is still exploration and the outcome of that is always always binary (yes or no). And no amount of positive energy from Ben can change that. I find it a little strange that Ben keeps saying they have not been talking about things until they can demonstrate drill success, yet here he is talking it all up. For sure he is on a very orchestrated pitch to promote the company (which is his job).
Wide of the mark - you are basically on the wrong planet. But sod a dog, see you later guys. You have all convinced yourselves that you actually know something about something to do with Tlou and CBM and Botswana. 95 per cent of what you all post is what Brad hopefully picks up when walking the adorable Poppy.
Orapa - will never be fuelled by CBM. More likely CNG or LNG.
Bye bye. Am taking a one year Tlou sabatical. Lets see what has changed between now and then.
Last thought - 50p share price is A$1 price x current 1.040 billion shares issued plus Dr converting his A$5m loan at 3.5 cents is another 150m shares. So around 1.2 billion shares in issue x A$1 is market cap of A$1.2 billion. Not ever in your wildest dreams poppets !!
So who would be better off / less worse off today - those who followed you or Donks over say the past 5 years?
And you worried about my stocks of Andrex. Another Brad classic.
Your negativity speaks as you behaving like a spoilt brat child. But i suspect you know this and are just repeat posting like this to see who you can wind up. Not me chum - i just have a 'raised eyebrows' emoji reaction each time.
Last point on slide 11 says:
US consumption and production of natural pozzolan willincrease from 1.2 mtpa currently to nearly 6 mtpa by 2030.
And there, right there, is why we are all going to have to wait for greater pozzolan acceptance in the cement and concrete supply chains. Nothing new in this for those that knew why they were investing here (ie for the CS Project) - but that wont stop you know who bleating that his Rome is taking too long to build......
I think the 500/- shares is more likely market makers moving stock around v a retail punter selling.
Wrong again Brad (as usual) - it was never ever my aim to drive share price down. And more fool you if you think i had that capability. For someone that talks as knowledgeably as you often (seem to think you) do, it really does show you complete lack of understanding on how markets work in recent times. Old dog, same tricks - are you sure you didnt provoke the other doggie into taking a nibble .......
The impact of the gold rush in Zimbabwe
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, the work of artisanal miners and small-scale gold prospectors is the world’s largest source of mercury pollution. Gold prospectors from the Odzi River near the town of Mutare in Zimbabwe – unregistered artisanal miners – sift rocks from the river bed and colour the sediment with drops of mercury that sticks to the gold. Then, they use fire to separate the two metals. There are around 500,000 such unlicensed miners in Zimbabwe, supplying more than 60% of the gold mined in the country. It is Zimbabwe’s number one export commodity of critical importance to the crisis-ridden economy – in 2020, profits from the sale of this metal bullion amounted to US$2.14 billion.
Sorry - yes agree. WIll connect to the grid reasonably soon so i see little reason for the current share price to be any worse than it has been for past 3 years. Ergo - it should move up.
Maybe Brad has been a genius with his consistent dollar cost averaging ..... Oh my, we will never hear the end......
Change your record Brad. I am not killing this board. If others decide not to post, then its because there is nothing worthwhile to post. Unlike you, who seems to think we find your monthly 3 frequent flier trades update interesting. It isn't; the others are just too polite to tell you to stay on task.
Those of you thinking a tweet or post on X about progress is likely to move a stock that has disappointed re share price for near 10 years (and with 1 billion shares in issue) really need to have a talk with yourselves.
But at some point ahead, something hopefully will happen to make Tlou pop out of this multi year induced slumber. That said, there will be a serious number of sellers to take out on the way up !
Morupule continues to be a basket case of a power generation plant. Lots of remediation work has been done over they years and still it is not reliable. And likely never will be - because the Govt (under Khama) allowed the Chinese to deliver a plant apparently equipped with second hand gear. Plus the lining of the bottom of the furnaces kept failing, i think from memory because the Chinese misunderstood the nature of Botswana coal (compared to what they were used to). All of this should have been picked up in plant commissioning - but wasnt. Why? Because contract clauses re commissioning were incredibly stacked in favour of the Contractor, and commissioning was run on short term basis and signed off before the problems were apparent (ie bungs were quickly paid and Contractor was largely able to walk away).
One of the first things Masisi did when he assumed power was visit China, point this out and try negotiate the Contractor make good their work. Not particularly successfully as again from memory Korean or Japanese were engaged for certain repair work thereafter.
The Chinese are not particularly loved in Botswana - they made a hash of a large water tender project. They are getting smaller and smaller allocation of public sector work nowadays.
Morupule problems is a large part of reason why Jindal were awarded intital 300MW coal burning plant, quickly increased to 600MW. Jindal are a large Indian Group with big balance sheet, meaning Govt does not need give soverign guarantee over PPA. Very important in projects involving Govt or Ministries in Botswana nowadays.
No problem with your point of view Winni - but since it is a pilot project to prove to Govt that gas to power works, that is what makes me think the tariff is nothing special.
Icebank - what news are you expecting in the next few months ?
And DTE, when the Minister himself says ..... we will give the IPPs 'some cashflow' to help ,,,,,,,, Well I take that as being more at the rubbish end of tariff than the high end. We will never know of course; jsut as we wont ever know sustained flow rates and composition levels. But eventully the financial numbers will give us some insight.
If TG already has a Buyer for the gas fields lined up once pilot power generation is proven - wonderful. it cant happen quickly enough. I dont however see it as being Chinese buyers - Govt wont want being beholden to them for significant power generation. Or if it is Chinese buyers, they will drive CBM feedstocks in a different direction. But the possibility of environmental damage for CBM wells scattered across large tracts of Botswana under Chinese control - no, i dont see that happening. Not that it is presently relevant.
Winni - take from my posts wht you will. But i dont for a second believe many here think I am stating the obvious - or if they do, then they really dont understand what often I am saying.
DTE - I am not speculating the tariff will be rubbish. I am simply saying it wont be a fantasticly supportive tariff demonstrating Govt support to private sector IPPs trying to help Govt with their power supply deficits. Part of Pension Fund investment is via convertible note - I didnt know / remember that. There you go - even i dont know everything ......
Do you think TG thought when listing in 2012 they would still be issuing equity and convertible debt to complete the company's first pilot gas to power project in 2024 ?
How many times do you want me to say - well done Tlou for sticking with it. But that came with considerable cost. And the hard yards quite possibly are only just starting, as opposed to many here thinking their finish line is in sight with first power injection to the grid next year......
Maybe I should just post everything is going to be swell and dandy next year once first power is delivered; that the margins are likely going to be awesome; that the company will be cash flow positive within 3-6 months of commercial operations; that no more equity will need be issued; that the Dr will convert his debt to equity and dilute shareholders but at least save on interest costs; that revenues from first pilot will be sufficient to borrow the capex needed to next projects (whatever they may be); ........
Maybe you should start thinking ,,,,,,,,,
Again what I think (not know) is - selling to SAPP isnt the simple alternative often quoted. BPC own the distribution grid which means the Govt really own it (as BPC is insolvent) and no doubt they could quite easily make connection 'difficult' for IPPs to bypass them. If normal BAU in Botswana is anything to go by, Ministry will want all the cheap power they can get (to offset the more expensive foreign imported power purchased (although that might mean somebody's offshore envelope is reduced) and no doubt the next problem will be BPC delaying payments to IPPs. This has been ongoing with BPC suppliers for past few years - and is a real and current problem in Botswana now (I posted something about this couple months back).
Pension Fund owning a slice of Tlou - this has probably helped Tlou stay the course in Botswana and keep CBM alive. But the amount involved is relatively small and I personally dont think a big enough driver to motivate Ministers and civil servants and BERA and the rest to throw collective weight behind Tlou to accelerate its success. In any event, it was the Asset Manager that invested the Pension Fund's money in Tlou, so therefore it is on the Asset Manager to harangue Tlou management about share price performance. And I imagine the size of Tlou investment in the overall portfolio of Asset Manager is relatively small (accepting it is badly under water and been long time non-performing - and also market to market, so they only way for portfolio performance from here is hopefully up).
On dewatering - still early days to declare victory on how quick this is, especially relative to previous wells. Call me a cynic, but I always suspected dewatering was a convenient reason to pass the time until the other more definitively timebound aspects were actioned and progressing.
What if Govt through BPC said this is a pilot project and the onus is on you (the wannabe IPP) to prove that CBM gas to power actually works. And this is the price or tariff we are prepared to pay you, and on these terms. Take it or leave it guys.
Regardless of the agreed tariff, i cannot see it being at great profit margin to Tlou, or now Sekaname and now Sturdee Energy (4MW solar). BPC is insolvent; has been for years and will continue many more years to be dependent on Govt for funding. The locals dont want to pay for their power, and all parties need the votes so dont want to disturb the voting base too much (couldnt because of covid and certainly not pre-elections this time next year).
As someone said to me years ago about doing business in Botswana (and no slur intended to anyone) - "stop thinking like a white man". And believe it or not, the guy that aid this was a Batswana guy himself. So go figure.
But I keep coming back to my now position, the CBM landscape there has finally turned positive. And that has to be largley due to Tlou persistence in not running away when the going got tough. But it has come at a disgracefully heavy cost to shareholders, as everyone here well knows.
Even Brad - if he can bring himself to admit i been saying this for years. (There was another poster way back, not Brad, who said that dilution didnt matter - idiot !)