RE: Upstream23 Jan 2025 14:28
Damon: Everything appears to be going nowhere fast regarding hashtag#TimorLeste's hashtag#gas, hashtag#upstream, hashtag#energy industry ambitions, meanwhile, the country's funds are running out. Is the young population being shortchanged by its leaders?
Alex: thereβs a lot of downside risk with these projects. Based on MSCI data the O&G sector has delivered less value than any other over 5-15 years. Most Australian LNG projects also lost money. To me it seems very sensible to not rush into a multi billion dollar investment - especially if the country doesnβt have the cash flow to deal with potential losses and the results of the study seem equivocal at best.
Damon: the Timorese leadership appears to continually pursue/prioritize the least competitive development options for Greater Sunrise - a greenfield LNG project in East Timor. Various studies over the past 10 years point to using Sunrise as a backfill for existing brownfield LNG plants in Northern Australia as the most economical development option. "As the saying goes "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." At this rate, Greater Sunrise will remain stalled and undeveloped, meanwhile, Timor Leste keeps spending its previous petroleum windfalls in an unsustainable manner and fails to build a diversified economy to support its young population.
Damon: if most Australian LNG Projects lost money, why would developers invest in them? Which ones specifically lost money (the Queensland projects?)? Timor Leste did pretty well from Bayu Undan and Darwin hashtag#LNG. Elsewhere, Chevron's Australia business is a major part of its global portfolio and it continues to prioritize it. Chevron's share price performance does not look too shabby.
Alex: We published a report on it. And I should have been clearer sorry - by lost money I mean that they didnβt generate enough to cover their their cost of capital.
Based on Rystad data we found that DLNG and NWS generated value, but of the 8 βLNG growth waveβ projects only Gorgon met a 10% IRR and even that didnβt meet typical contemporary hurdle rates.
I have wondered long and hard why they did it. This isnβt the only example of the oil and gas sector eroding a lot of value - so itβs a more generalised problem than I ever would have expected when I worked in the sector.
I suspect part is optimism bias - they have a credible looking plan to make money but the project doesnβt go to plan. Thatβs certainly the case for every one of Australiaβs last 8 LNG projects - and we list some specific problems of each project in the report. Part may be ego, or split incentives between executives and shareholders.
Youβve followed the sector for a long time. Have you got any other ideas?
Alex: in terms of share price. Weβve put sector tsr data in our latest shell report
you love to drink from half empty glass. π₯