Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
After very deep thought, I have decided to take up my full allocation of the offer, costing a princely £22. It was either that, or buy a few lottery tickets; KMK came out marginally on top!
Today's RNS is bad news but not unexpected. I think the BOD have been pretty straightforward for months about the options. I knew this was a gamble to get back in and I foolishly bought at the recent peak. I've sold now as I don't think trading will be practical for PIs once re-dom has happened and although this is a solid business, it's been shafted by the geo-political situation (as have EVR and POG) and that doesn't look to be changing soon.
My loss has eaten into all profits here apart from 20 quid, so I may celebrate with a Nando's.
For those remaining, I wish you all the best but for me the horizon here just looks bleak.
Good and positive half-year results, plus a broker buy rating last month, but oddly no price movement today. Hope to see some movement beyond 700p very soon.
Or Joules - Tom Joules, major shareholder remains involved in the company while retail shareholders are all wiped out. Shameful
I suppose the gold price holding up at about $2000 must be giving us a tailwind. This is nosebleed territory for LEX, surely?
Or is it a PI waiting for suspension to be lifted?
A positive set of results and RNS, considering the economic backdrop. Also, a proposed final divi of 4.5p shows they are continuing the progressive divi policy.
I've been in this share since 2017 and it hasn't got above about 170p. I'm out with a tiny loss after divis, as I doubt a better offer will emerge. Good luck if you're holding on.
Not invested here yet but keeping an eye on it. Jefferies has downgraded to underperform - presumably causing the drop in SP today - and quotes concern about debt and financing of the Arqiva acquisition. Total debt is now 519m or 55% of NAV, quite a bit more than the 40%ish current NAV discount. I wonder if future dividends are secure?
Just woken up to this, was feeling ill, now worse. So glad I sold out for "only" a 75% loss a couple of weeks ago. I am genuinely sorry for other LTHs who stuck it out till today.
BoDs handling of this has been awful - I still haven't really heard a decent argument why they needed the full £45m now. They have been supine as far as I can see.
It does seem this industry is now in terminal decline when you consider that AMGO had just reached the point of becoming the cleanest player in the market and yet has been unable to secure what is really quite small funding. A combination of the funding issue and withdrawal of the guarantor product, plus difficulty in getting enough new business with the stringent new rules, along with lower interest rates in Reward Rate made me think the writing was probably on the wall.
The FCA has also played another blinder by constantly dragging its heels and the late intervention in SOA1. Waiving the absurd £79m fine has perversely made wind-down an easier option.
The irony of the situation is that we need this type of lender more than ever since the pandemic. I suspect a lot of claimants have just chanced their arm with the lure of free cash and egged on by the likes of debt dromedary. Now what will they do when they need their next loan and the only lenders are pawn brokers and loan sharks - good luck with that!
At the same time I have to take responsibility as an investor. I knew this was very risky and was expecting a big reward when this came good. It was about understanding the risk and not allocating too much into one share/ industry. Everybody has lost out here - I hope the BoD is barred from running another company.
I've no idea how much longer trading will continue but I won't be touching this with a bargepole.
I've been thinking following the meeting. I am heavily overweight in this share already (my own fault). While there might be a big buyer in the background this is all speculation. The fact they haven't raised a penny more since 23/02 is concerning. The RI will force me to add more money into this share (I am not sure there will be enough demand to allow tail-swallowing).
Yes, the BOD does keep banging on about wind-down and I feel this is becoming a more likely outcome by the day.
So, I decided to sell my whole holding. It's a massive 75% loss and my second biggest ever share loss in money terms - it bloody hurts.
Sod's law says an RNS tomorrow with more than full funding and a teensy RI!!
Anyway, for everyone else still in, wish you all the best. If things turn out well and Amigo 2 becomes a profitable prospect, I would look to re-invest, though you will all be rich and catching a few rays somewhere exclusive ;)
Now, where's that red wine?
I only managed to attend the final 10 minutes, so thanks to Novice for the updates. Is it fair to say the current situation is:
1) SOA can only be changed by the court. There is no time for this and why would the judge agree to changing the terms to anything less than the current scheme.
2) Out of the 45m needed, they have, quote "non-binding, indicative interest for between £10m to £15m of equity and £10m of exchangeable notes" . This hasn't changed since 23rd Feb. If all of that became firm agreements, we would have a max of £25m, leaving a further £20m to raise.
During the meeting was the issue raised that if they can't raise £45m this way, could the balance attempt to be raised through the RI? Or, did they suggest that without the £45m in advance, it will go straight to wind-down?
3) There still has to be a RI with a dilution of 19:1 and there are currently about 475m shares. Usually, RI are issued at a discount to the current SP of roughly 2.4p. If they offered it at 2p, then 475m x 19 x 2p would raise £1.8m (please check this for schoolboy errors), which is very little towards the total. If the RI was offered at a premium, how much take-up would there be for such a risky business.
4) The FCA Consumer Duty legislation is new to me but if this is going to restrict AMGO in any way, it doesn't look good on top our existing problems.
5) It seems we are relying on a white knight to ride in and save our capital position. Without that, I suspect the other IIs won't make binding agreements.
Bearing all this in mind, I feel really pessimistic about the future and can't help but think we will go into wind-down and we will all be wiped out. Sorry to be down but...
I can't see a link for the webcast in the Feb RNS or in https://www.amigoplc.com/investors.
Does anyone know where to find it. Hopefully. I'll be able to listen and pass on anything useful. Anybody else hoping to go/listen in?
The RNS says 'intends' to pay a divi and then goes on to quote RY stating they 'will' pay it. Havin already lost half my investment even with today's bounce, excuse a little scepticism!
I don' think they could get away with backing out of this but I thought when a divi is paid, the SP has to reduce by the same amount? If that happens while the Ask is 1.665, does the SP go negative and they have to pay us for taking shares??? Only kidding of course but does anyone know?
Olly, maybe onion tears today. Hoping for tears of joy tomorrow??
Peregrine, we have IMO an extremely poor settlement and no commitment to shareholder return of a slice of that even in 2024.
On the positive side, SteakAndAle makes an interesting point about dual supply and the re-comm of Runcorn would suggest something is happening whether from Samsung or a commercial order.
Unfortunately, we have zero visibility of this, just like the low settlement model Nano suddenly announced which has never been communicated publicly.
So, as it has done for many years, NANO remains a jam tomorrow company but has managed to provide itself with future funding for several years.
For me, it was all about the litigation - and the outcome of that for PIs is complete failure. I cannot see the SP moving positively in the near future, nor can I trust the tone of likely future RNS. In the light of all this, I have sold my entire holing for a tiny profit.
I won't rule out investing here again, if commercial orders that have true visibility come to fruition and the SP is at a 'reasonable' level. However, I feel I have some emotional baggage (still angry and frustrated with the settlement) which makes me ultra-cautious here and mistrustful of the BoDs likely attitude to PIs.
Best of luck to those who are still holding.
This must have been an in-house damages model. I certainly don't recall anything like that being published.
I am utterly disappointed with this very poor settlement. It is potentially transformational for NANO considering how small it is, but at the same time, what a tremendous opportunity missed. Had they persisted in legal action my own belief is that the court case would have succeeded. Even with delays caused by appeals, if we compare that with this deal, the money is being paid in two tranches, the second in 2024 and so very delayed for such a small sum anyway.
My reason for investing was always the litigation, so my investment case has failed! From a business viewpoint, NANO has generally failed to deliver anything meaningful and although the landscape looks more positive for the technologies to be used in multiple products, it is still jam tomorrow. The spin on the litigation given mainly by BT and the extremely poor and misleading RNS comms of January also undermines everything the top management have to say. Although the activity in Runcorn suggests production soon, rolling over to Samsung (as I see it) has produced a settlement equivalent to cents per TV. Is the BoD even capable of making a commercial deal in this light?
The last para of the litigation RNS today says
"The Group expects to have net negative distributable reserves in a number of subsidiary companies and in the parent company itself after the impact of the transactions noted above. The Group will therefore review options for its future capital structure prior to the receipt of the second tranche of proceeds around February 2024 in order to facilitate a possible return of funds to shareholders."
In other words, there may be a special divi but not until 2024 - and no firm commitment even. We could wait until then and the BoD announce retention of funds for further investment.
I shall wait a little in the hope of an SP rise after today's crash and then sell.
Yes, it is odd. Can't see a reason: no new director buys or broker upgrades and no RNS for the past 3 days. The last one was about the CFO being poached, which is (a) now old news and (b) probably not good for the SP. Maybe there'll be an RNS after the close?
Mixed RNS. As usual - and they have to keep repeating this - if they can't raise enough, it's wind-down and ordinary shareholders will be wiped out.
They have to raise £15m as per the scheme and need the rest of the £45m to help build the business. IIs are prepared to take some of this, so far. I'm a bit confused about the reasoning here, though. If the IIs have, say, committed to 1/3 of what's needed, that covers the SOA requirement of £15m , leaving £30m needing to be raised from IIs and PIs?
Is the management saying that leaving the balance of the raise to the usual RI process is too risky without the II commitment beforehand and raises the spectre of not being able to be a going concern?
Also, didn't they say they have debt facilities arranged that could be drawn on? Could that be a fallback if the £45m total raise can't be achieved? It would meet the SOA needs of £15m and SH 19:1 dilution.
My average is just over 10p, so huge loss at the mo. Must confess my glass is half-empty, though it will be full of red wine in the evening.
OK, so they have to raise 45m by 26/05, otherwise the wind down option becomes the only one. That 45m has to be raised from an II, or from current shareholders as the RI. Currently, they can't get one II to take all 45m so are trying to find several who will.
If not, does that mean the whole 45m will have to be raised via the RI?
RI are normally issued at a discount to the current SP to encourage us to invest more, but how will they manage to raise that much at such a low SP. I would think that if they can't get several IIs to take at least the bulk of the 45m, there will be another big SP drop, making it harder still to raise the balance needed.
My big worry is that this chain of events will result in wind down and us PIs being wiped out.
Have to confess I am thinking of selling now - will be a huge loss but better than losing it all.
Appreciate I might be missing some crucial points here?