Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Barclays continues to offer an upbeat outlook in my view. The company has now largely finished its restructuring and may be in a position to deliver excess capital returns to shareholders. This could mean a further extension in the size of its dividend, with the stock already due to yield 3.8% next year. With Barclays having a single-digit forward PE, I feel upbeat about its investment appeal.
What's in Store for Barclays (BCS) This Earnings Season? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-store-barclays-bcs-earnings-125912677.html
Barclays is expected to go from a relatively unappealing dividend stock to one that could generate an impressive income return. The company is due to yield almost 4% next year, which puts it in the upper echelons of FTSE 100 yielders. The bank has been able to successfully restructure in the last few years, and this could mean that it is able to maintain a fast-growing dividend. Therefore, I feel upbeat about the investment potential of Barclays.
https://www.ft.com/video/6af0b857-ac16-47fe-a8a2-262141f1c8ce
7 have held down the business�s returns on average equity (ROAE), which declined to 8.4 per cent during the first nine months, yet accounted for almost half its allocated tangible equity. That�s compared with a ROAE of 9.4 per cent by retail-focused Barclays UK � such is the high-cost risk of investment banking. Analysts expect fourth quarter investment banking income to decline year-on year. Given the lacklustre growth of net interest income on the retail side, plus the underperformance of its investment bank, management�s guidance for returns on tangible equity � of north of 10 per cent by 2020 and 9 per cent by 2019 (excluding litigation and conduct costs) � seem like a stretch. IC View It may seem that we are siding with the bears when it comes to investing in Barclays. In fact, we reckon the buy case is arguably the strongest it has been in almost three years. Much progress has been made improving its common equity tier one ratio, which stood at 13.1 per cent at the end September, up from 11.6 per cent the previous year. That�s been driven by reducing its risk-weighted assets, but it�s the main reason most analysts are forecasting a return to dividend growth in 2018. Shore Capital estimates a DPS of 7p in 2018. At 194p, that would give the shares a decent potential yield of 3.6 per cent. They�re trading at of 0.65 times 2018 forecast net tangible assets � the lowest of all the major five lenders and only a slight premium to when the shares hit a five-year low following the EU referendum. That also prices in the risk it won�t achieve its 2019 targets. Buy. Last IC view: Buy, 181p, 26 Oct 2017
Tip Update: Buy at 194p Tip style VALUE Risk rating MEDIUM Timescale MEDIUM TERM Our previous tip We said BUY at 237.6p on 08 Jan 2015 Tip performance to date -18% By Emma Powell The performance of Barclays� (BARC) shares during the past 12 months has been conspicuously poor compared with its UK-listed peers. Shareholders would have been glad, then, that news the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) is extending the scope of charges relating to the bank�s 2008 capital raising failed to disturb its share price. BARC:LSE Barclays PLC 1mth Today change 1.40% Price (GBP) 195.70 The SFO has brought a charge of unlawful financial assistance against Barclays Bank over the $3bn loan Barclays made to the state of Qatar in November 2008. That was around the time the banking group�s second fundraising � aimed at preventing a government bailout � was closing. UK companies are generally disallowed from lending money to third-parties if the purpose is to buy shares in that company. The SFO had already charged Barclays PLC with two counts of conspiring to commit fraud by false representations relating to two so-called advisory services agreements with Qatar Holding � part of the state�s sovereign wealth fund � in June and October 2008, and a further count of unlawful financial assistance relating to the November loan. Barclays Bank and its parent company said they intend to defend the respective charges brought against them and that they don't �expect there to be an impact on its ability to serve its customers and clients as a consequence of the charge having been brought�. Investor reaction may have been muted but the charge levelled against the Barclays Bank is concerning, given that that subsidiary must pass the �fit and proper� test to keep its banking licence. Still, the UK lender is no stranger to litigation. More perturbing for shareholders, Barclays � along with two of its executives � is also being sued by the US Department of Justice over allegedly fraudulent mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007. That�s a complaint that Barclays has rejected as "disconnected from the facts", and said it would "vigorously defend". Investec analyst Ian Gordon has accounted for a settlement of $2bn in his 2018 forecasts, to be taken as a provision that year. But legal disputes are not the only matter holding down the share price. The weak performance of the investment banking operations during the past three-quarters is helping to prove the naysayers right. Historically low levels of volatility in 2017 have held down the business�s returns on average equity (ROAE), which declined to 8.4 per cent during the first nine months, yet accounted for almost half its allocated tangible equity. That�s compared with a ROAE of 9.4 per cent by retail-focused Barclays UK � such is the high-cost risk of in
What: Its fair to say that Barclays has had a pretty horrible year. The stock is down around 11% since January and is still trading a good 14% lower than where it was 5 years ago. Any hopes of a meaningful sustained turnaround from this bank have been dashed time and time again through the year. Furthermore, there isn�t even a high dividend yield to compensate investors for the disappointments. Barclays is the least loved of the UK banks right now, HSBC is seemingly going from strength to strength, optimism is returning to Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland has rallied over 25% through the course of the year. Global banking stocks (not just the UK) have rallied in 2017 and Barclays hasn�t. Making matters worse, Goldman Sachs have confirmed their sell rating on the stock and have even included it on their �List of sell ideas for 2018�. Goldman�s highlighted Barclays lower margins on mortgages and increased competition on deposits, which were reflected in their third quarter results, as the reason for the bearishness. Furthermore, they see those same pressures remaining in 2018. The there is the small matter of the dividend or perhaps better put, the matter of the small dividend. Barclays dividend yield is just 1.5% which compares poorly to Lloyds, which has a yield of 2.5% and HSBC, which has a yield of an inflation busting 5.4%. Adding to the dividend woes was Barclay�s weak performance in the Bank of England Stress test. The stress test showed that Barclays had the lowest margin of error. There are some concerns that they may see increased pressure to increase capital, which could impact on the banks ability to raise its dividend. Finally, looking at the bank�s results, earning per share has fallen in three of the last 5 years. This included a headline grabbing drop of 60% in 2013 and another heavy 22% drop last year as a slew of one-off adjustments, write-down and charges have played havoc with the banks profitability. How: Barclays is trading down 11% on the year although, the price has picked up in recent weeks. The share price is up 4% this month, lifted in line with a broad rise in the FTSE 100 which could present a good entry point. Barclays continues to trade below its 200 sma confirming a bearish trend.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- After three months of intensive product development, mentoring and networking, nine companies will today showcase their innovative FinTech propositions at a demo day in New York. Barclays has taken an equity investment as part of the program in each of the participating companies. The demo day marks the culmination of the third New York cohort of the Barclays Accelerator powered by Techstars - a leader in the venture capital and accelerator space. With over 5,000 applications across 11 cohorts, the Barclays Accelerator, powered by Techstars, has become the largest single-bank-powered portfolio globally. The nine companies that comprise the current New York cohort are driving innovation in new age banking, alternative investments and corporate bonds amongst other new business propositions. Leveraging the vast resources of Barclays and Techstars, these companies are empowered to shape the future of financial services. �It�s exciting to witness the progress and growth these companies have achieved over the course of our intensive 13 week program,� said John Stecher, Group Head of Innovation, Barclays. �Each has developed their business model, many are rapidly growing their teams, and all have defined their unique market fit. Barclays is devoted to these companies as long-term investments and is committed to providing each set of founders with a partner to help them navigate as they grow and mature their businesses.� Across a series of demo day events, more than 500 industry leaders, entrepreneurs, senior executives and corporate partners will attend presentations from the nine companies. Each of the companies will share their propositions on how they are shaping the future of financial services, and outline the progress they have made over the 13 weeks since the start of the program. The companies from the current Accelerator cohort have engaged with a variety of Barclays' businesses to investigate the implementation of new technologies. For example, the following companies are engaged with the Corporate and Investment Bank: Barclays� FIG LatAm Corporate Banking team is supporting Sigma Ratings in making key introductions to entities in the emerging markets space, as well as providing Sigma Ratings with access to conferences and speaking engagements to elevate industry visibility. Barclays� Credit business is supporting 7Chord with product analysis to identify use cases for their predictive pricing and alpha signals tool. 7Chord plans to launch a beta version of their predictive bond pricing tool on a credit trading desk for evaluation and feedback. �Thanks to the networks of both Barclays and Techstars we have been introduced to leaders and practitioners across many different sectors of the financial services industry,� said Gabrielle Haddad, Chief Operating Officer, Sigma Ratings. �Barclays has helped us refine our products and
What happens to Barclays if Jes Staley goes? by Daniel Davies Jes Staley Barclays values The Bank of England�s Enforcement Decision Making Committee is scheduled to be rolled out by the end of March and one of the first decisions on its to-do list may be a big one � the question of whether to require Barclays to sack Jes Staley as CEO. Although the share price has stabilised and the immediate pressure from shareholders seems to have abated, the PRA/FCA investigation into Staley�s actions in trying to find the identity of a whistleblower has yet to complete. The risk is that regulators may feel that the Senior Managers� Regime will not have credibility unless it takes some big scalps early on. So what would a Staley-less Barclays look like if the worst comes to the worst? The first question to answer would be whether the replacement of a chief executive would trigger any major strategic change at Barclays. It is hard to believe that it would, however. The board has endorsed the move back into investment banking and supported Jes over a quite tough period in terms of earnings; it would be strange to reverse course now. And with the Anthony Jenkins experience still fresh in investors� minds, everyone is aware both that �focus on retail� is not a magic solution for profitability, and that rapid switches in strategy have their own substantial cost in terms of morale and effectiveness. An investment bank needs someone to lead it, and a replacement for Jes would need to be able to fill that role. But Barclays is not exactly short of ex-JP Morgan investment bankers, with Tim Throsby (head of investment banking), CS Venkatakrishnan (chief risk officer), Paul Compton (chief operating officer) and Tushar Morzaria (CFO) all fitting this description. Morzaria, who was apparently on the shortlist last time might be considered the more natural successor if the board chooses an internal candidate, simply because he has been at Barclays longer and has more familiarity with the rest of the business. But any new CEO would face a challenge; having inherited Staley�s strategy of bringing Barclays back to investment banking, how do you make it work? Perhaps the clue is in the most recent league table results, which showed that Barclays was regaining a dominant position in UK domestic markets while still struggling to get back into the bulge bracket internationally. Post-Brexit the UK will continue to be a big capital market, even if big international banks choose to locate elsewhere. It will certainly be big enough to support a dominant domestic player. Maintaining a commitment to investment banking as an industry while scaling back its ambitions geographically would represent an evolution rather than a revolution for Barclays, and could even deliver acceptable returns on equity. So perhaps the employees with least to fear from a post-Jes future might be the rece
Morning Coffee: The bubble could be about to burst for bankers at Barclays. Weird requests upon moving to Paris by Sarah Butcher Jes Staley FCA Barclays� investment bankers have had a good time of it since the departure of their previous ex-retailing banking CEO Antony Jenkins and Jenkins� replacement by Jes Staley, a red-blooded ex-J.P. Morgan man with a trading bent, but all this fun could all be about to come to an end. As Patrick Jenkins points out in the Financial Times, Staley�s judgement is now due. The judgement in question relates to the UK Financial Conduct Authority�s investigation into Staley�s misguided attempt to unearth the identity of a whistleblower earlier this year. To be reached by Andrew Bailey. the FCA�s �firm but fair� chief executive, the judgement has the potential to unseat Staley and give Barclays its fourth chief executive in just five years. The outcome matters for both men: Bailey could succeed Mark Carney at the Bank of England and may be looked upon unfavourably if he�s seen as too easy on Jes; if it goes badly, Jes may decide to go back to America and his artisan crafted boat. People working in Barclays� investment bank should view the upcoming judgement with trepidation. If Jes is exonerated, their Christmases will be merry and the plan for returning Barclays to its former risk-taking glory will proceed as intended. If Jes is jilted, there�s a risk that Barclays will undergo yet another change of strategy under a boss less amenable to the investment bank. If so, it would come at a bad time: the return on equity in the investment bank was just 5.9% in the third quarter, well below the cost of capital. Staley intends to grow his way out of this; another CEO could just as easily decide to cut. The only upside is that Barclays� share price, down 13% this year, is expected to rise if Staley goes. This could benefit anyone with deferred bonuses, although Barclays cut deferrals last year � so even this slender benefit could well be negligible. Separately, people ask for some strange things when they move to Paris. The New York Times has been looking at how the city of light is changing in its attempt to woo post-Brexit bankers. The contortions include a room in the French finance industry which has been bedecked to look like a start-up and includes a sign saying, �On your mark, get ready, innovate!� There�s also an agency you can call when you�re an international company pondering your move. Someone called it and asked where the executive �dancing clubs� (��Kind of a social club for executives and their wives.�) One was unearthed in Western Paris.
https://www.ft.com/content/fac9bd48-db43-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482
Fun banking facts: you can pick up Barclays shares cheaper than Royal Bank of Scotland�s in terms of valuation. That�s right, the stock market thinks less of a bank that turns a profit (mostly) and pays a small dividend, than it does of Royal Bank of Scotland, which hasn�t made money in nearly ten years. Optimists think it might pay its first divvy this year, but only if the fates align. Poor Jes Staley. Upon the release of the half-year numbers, the Barclays CEO said that the bank�s �restructuring is complete�. READ MORE Barclays suffers �1.2bn loss for first half of the year Former senior Barclays bankers in court over fraud charges Qatar owns Canary Wharf and Heathrow � now Barclays is a problem �From 1 July we are the bank that we want to be,� he boldly declared. If you forgive the thumping paper loss he made on pulling out of Africa, which marred the numbers, he also had a pre-tax profit of �2.34bn to talk about. And yet he still wasn�t able to find any love in the heart of the city. Why is there so little faith in this transatlantic super bank �with global reach�, particularly when compared with the industry�s problem child? Perhaps it�s because, as far as the City is concerned, RBS is fixing its problems. It has one more really big nasty to get out of the way. That would be the packaging up and sale of dodgy mortgages that went on in the run up to the financial crisis. It will cost RBS (and therefore we taxpayers) several billion pounds. 6 Early Signs Your Liver Is Damaged ILoveFacts Revealed: Brilliant Way To Check If You Had PPI Quick PPI SUV Dealerships Offering Unsold Inventory For Up To 70% Off The Listed Prices. SUV | Sponsored Links by Taboola Sponsored Links Once that�s done, however, the worst should be out of the way. I�d personally be a little more sceptical than London�s institutional investors are. RBS for many years looked like a rogue bank. To my mind, it has a lot still to prove. But if you look closely at Barclays, you start to see why the City might have a point with its unflattering comparison of the two. Barclays is the banking industry�s geezer! It�s a little bit fly. No bothersome British Government bail outs for us. We�ll get our clever chaps to rustle up some Qatari cash to keep the Treasury�s hands off us. The consequences of that decision can be seen within the pages of legal disclosures that make the life of a banking reporter easy. When there�s nothing much to say about the results, you can always, but always, find some fun in the Barclays small print. Forget the �700m tossed on to the PPI pile that made all the headlines. That�s just a common or garden misdeed that every one of the industry�s big guns have got a piece of. It�s Barclays more esoteric tr
Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley called on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to cut taxes and relax regulations on British banks after Brexit, according to a person familiar with his comments. Staley told May and other industry executives meeting in London earlier Thursday that high taxes and burdensome regulation were making it hard for U.K. financial-services firms to compete against their U.S. rivals, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the meeting was private. Jes Staley on Jan. 11.Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg It was the most constructive discussion between the government and bankers in some time, another person briefed on the talks said. Other executives invited to the meeting included Deutsche Bank AG CEO John Cryan, HSBC Holdings Plc Chairman Mark Tucker and UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber. �The prime minister gave an overview of the U.K.�s position and updated on Brexit negotiations -- including the U.K.�s aim to agree an implementation period by the end of March,� according to a statement from May�s office. �The business leaders were united in emphasizing the need for as much certainty as possible,� and also �gave their views on how to maximize the benefits of an implementation period.� One of the EU rules that has chafed on lenders and British regulators alike is the post-2014 limit on bonuses to twice fixed pay. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in November that the U.K. could review the cap after Brexit. Negotiations on the future trading relationship between the EU and U.K. are due to resume in March, with the position of banks a major discussion point. Germany will demand the U.K. make substantial contributions to the EU budget for the privilege of its financial firms having access to the single market after Brexit, officials familiar with their thinking said Wednesday. U.K.-EU talks to date �were deemed to have provided reassurance� to the executives who attended the meeting, the statement from May�s office said.
HomeNewsArticlesLON:RBS Bank swaps: Morgan Stanley upgrades RBS, downgrades both Lloyds and Barclays Share 11:24 10 Jan 2018 The US investment bank raised its stance on RBS to �overweight� from �equal-weight� with an increased target price of 330p from 265p, with the shares trading at 288.6p RBS sign Meanwhile, both Lloyds and Barclays� saw their ratings cut back to �equal-weight� from �overweight� by Morgan Stanley Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (LON:RBS) topped the FTSE 100 leader board in late morning trading, boosted by an upgrade from Morgan Stanley in a review of the UK banking sector which also saw them downgrade both Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY) and Barclays PLC (LON:BARC). The US investment bank raised its stance on RBS to �overweight� from �equal-weight� with an increased target price of 330p from 265p, with the shares trading at 288.6p, up 8.1p or 2.9% on last night�s close. READ: RBS has reportedly agreed the sale of Lombard Finance's offshore leasing business for �150mln Meanwhile, both Lloyds and Barclays� saw their ratings cut back to �equal-weight� from �overweight� by Morgan Stanley, with their targets reduced to 75p from 80p and 215p from 230p, respectively. Lloyds shares slipped 0.02p lower to 68.38p, while Barclays shed 1.1%, or 2.2p at 199.6p. In the note to clients, the Morgan Stanley analysts said: �We believe RBS offers better earnings visibility vs. peers as market share wins in mortgages will make it less vulnerable to ongoing asset spread compression in the segment.� They added: �At the same time, substantial deleveraging in its corporate book and less exposure to consumer should see more resilient asset quality performance if macro were to deteriorate.� The analysts also estimate that, with a lower increase in capital requirements than its peers, RBS could afford share buybacks equivalent to 15-20% of its market cap over time on top of dividend payments. Litigation risks remain They said litigation costs remain the biggest risk in 2018, with RBS expected to settle with the US Department of Justice on mortgage-backed securities mis-selling soon, with Morgan Stanley factoring-in a �2.5bn provision top-up in the fourth quarter of 17, which is the average of the fines it has tracked. For Lloyds, the analysts said that, despite higher capital requirement, it is more optimistic on the margin outlook than consensus; however, with the stock trading at 1.3 times estimated tangible book value they see less room for a re-rating. For Barclays, the analysts said they believe investors would need to assume �750mln-�1bn higher market revenues versus the bank�s estimates to buy the stock - 20% upside.
US Court denies Barclays� request for rehearing in �dark pool� case Barclays had sought to overturn a class certification decision which the bank saw as creating a dangerous precedent that may undermine the US capital markets. In a brief Order issued on January 5, 2018, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit denied a petition by Barclays PLC (LON:BARC), its United States subsidiary Barclays Capital Inc., as well as three (former) senior officers of those companies � Robert Diamond, Antony Jenkins, and William White, for a rehearing of the Court�s decisions in a �dark pool� case. The one-page order, seen by FinanceFeeds, does not provide any explanation of the Court�s decision. It simply states that Barclays� petition for panel rehearing or, in the alternative, for rehearing en banc, is denied. The action, captioned Strougo v. Barclays PLC (0:16-cv-01912), was brought by Joseph Waggoner, Mohit Sahni, and Barbara Strougo, who had purchased Barclays� American Depository Shares (ADS). According to the plaintiffs, Barclays had violated � 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, 15 U.S.C. � 78j(b), and the Securities and Exchange Commission�s Rule 10b‐5.4� 10(b) by making false statements and omissions about LX and Liquidity Profiling. The Plaintiffs alleged that Barclays� statements about LX and the Liquidity Profiling system were materially false and misleading by omission or otherwise because, contrary to its assertions, Barclays did not in fact protect clients from aggressive high frequency trading activity, did not restrict predatory traders� access to other clients, and did not eliminate traders who continued to behave in a predatory manner. The result of these fraudulent statements, the plaintiffs asserted, was that the price of Barclays� ADS had been maintained at an inflated level that reflected investor confidence in the integrity of the company until the New York Attorney General�s lawsuit was filed on June 25, 2014. That lawsuit alleged that Barclays was violating provisions of the New York Martin Act in operating its dark pool. The launch of the lawsuit led to a steep drop in the price of Barclays� ADS. The Plaintiffs had sought class certification for investors who purchased Barclays� ADS between August 2, 2011, and June 25, 2014. The New York Southern District Court granted the certification. In its petition for rehearing, which was just denied by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, Barclays says that the problem lies in the need (or its lack thereof) for the plaintiffs to present any direct empirical evidence of �market efficiency� (i.e., that the price of the security reacted to material, new information) to build a case against a public company. According to the bank, the Court rulings create a A
U.K. regulators investigating Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley�s attempts to unmask a whistle-blower have pushed back their decision a second time, with the probe now expected to be concluded early 2018, people with knowledge of the process said. The delay comes as investigators at the Financial Conduct Authority are taking longer than expected to complete their review, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified speaking about a current case. The FCA had originally indicated it was targeting an October verdict, then pushed this back to December, Bloomberg News has previously reported. Spokesmen for the bank and the FCA declined comment. The whistle-blowing scandal is one of a series of unresolved issues hanging over the lender and its top executive, who may have to step down if the regulator deems him unfit to lead a financial institution. The British bank is in discussions with the U.S. Justice Department over a potential multi-billion-dollar fine for its role in selling toxic mortgage bonds that contributed to the financial crisis. In the U.K., four former Barclays executives will stand trial in 2019 on allegations they conspired to commit fraud over the bank�s 2008 fundraising with Qatar. Probes of this nature can take years to complete. While banks usually hire law firms to conduct their own internal investigation into wrongdoing, the FCA can�t accept any report wholesale and must conduct its own inquiries. If the target agrees to settle with the FCA at an early stage, the parties can often take weeks going back and forth on the wording of a penalty notice. Since the scandal broke, the FCA has interviewed the CEO twice, as well as other officials including Mike Ashley, the board member who supervises whistle-blowing complaints and Chief Operating Officer Paul Compton, Bloomberg News has reported. It�s not known what precisely is causing the repeated extensions of the probe. Barclays reprimanded Staley in April after discovering he�d repeatedly tried to identify a whistle-blower, even after colleagues said it was inappropriate. The CEO may forfeit his entire 1.3 million-pound ($1.7 million) bonus. The probe is the first test of the U.K.�s Senior Managers Regime, a set of rules introduced last year to restore personal liability to financial executives for bad or irresponsible behavior. The FCA has also placed an increasing emphasis on the importance of internal complaints, requiring firms to nominate a top executive or board member as a "whistle-blowers� champion." The whistle-blower controversy dates back to June 2016, when Barclays� board received an anonymous letter raising concerns about one of Staley�s former JPMorgan Chase & Co. colleagues, Tim Main, Bloomberg News previously reported. The letters flagged issues of a personal nature about him and Staley�s role in dealing with those concerns at JPMorgan.
Barclays PLC (ADR) (NYSE: BCS) shares have underperformed the EU bank sector by 29 percent in 2017, with the stock stuck below $10. The underperformance has prompted Bank of America Merrill Lynch to upgrade the shares of Barclays by two notches. The Analyst BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Helsby upgraded shares of Barclays from Underperform to Buy. The Thesis The reflation exuberance of the second half of 2016 reversed in 2017, with the bank's investment banking business suffering from low volatility and some self-imposed mishaps, Helbsy said in a Monday note. (See Helbsy's track record here.) The analyst said he believes the British bank's low earnings expectations and depressed share price make for a buying opportunity. The Price Action Barclays shares are down over 9 percent year-to-date. The stock closed Monday's session at $9.97, up 2.15 percent.
Oliver Haill WebFG News 20 Nov, 2017 16:42 20 Nov, 2017 16:42 Barclays Can Beat Low Expectations In Coming Quarters, Merrill Upgrades Barclays 189.15 08:46:10 21/11/17 0.21% 0.40 FTSE 100 7,387.70 08:46:11 21/11/17 -0.02% -1.76 FTSEurofirst 300 1,518.17 08:46:00 21/11/17 -0.03% -0.41 Banks 4,377.86 07:45 21/11/17 -0.32% -14.21 FTSE 350 4,107.65 08:46:11 21/11/17 -0.04% -1.66 FTSE All-Share 4,056.64 08:46:09 21/11/17 -0.03% -1.42 Banking 0.00 16:17 25/09/06 0.00% 0.00 Barclays shares have lagged the European banking sector in 2017 and for Bank of America Merrill Lynch sit at a low enough level to beat exceptions in the coming months and have been upgraded to 'buy'. Merrill, which moved its recommendation up from 'underperform' previously and upped its price objective to 220p from 180p, acknowledged that Barclays has had a difficult 18 months, with the 'reflation' of last year reversing as its investment bank was hit by lower volatility and "suffered from some self-imposed mishaps" as the previously productive IB balance sheet was shrunk and ineffective. Analysts at Merrill think sentiment is "back at a low-ebb" such that consensus earnings per share forecasts for the current year "has finally rebased". Looking at Barclays' plan to boost return on tangible equity 10%, around half of the increase is from "low hanging fruit, 10% from plausible growth, with the remainder coming from turning around the IB". While Merrill is not currently forecasting that Barclays will achieve its goals, the rebased fourth-quarter expectations, an easy comparative to beat in the first quarter of 2018 and Barclays shares "at a post crisis relative low", the shares were felt to merit their upgrade. "Barclays IB enters 2018 with a re-invigorated strategy, bigger balance sheet and new leadership team. Based on historic returns we think it is reasonable to assume that greater productive assets will drive revenues higher. With volatility back at lows, we think it also reasonable to expect a pick-up in volumes too," analysts wrote in a note on Monday. The forecast for adjusted EPS falls by 19% in 2017 to 13.1p and 10% in 2018 to 18.1p. "2017 should mark the trough and by 2020 we think it is plausible to believe that Barclays has 25p of earnings power, rising to 28-30p if management can deliver on its plans."
This article first appeared on SumZero, the world�s largest research community of buyside investment professionals. In some cases Barron�s edits the research for brevity; professional investors can access the full version of this thesis and tens of thousands of others at SumZero.com. Disclaimer: The author�s fund had a position in this security at the time of posting and may trade in and out of this position without informing the SumZero community. Barclays trades at a significant discount to book value. Significant costs associated with running down and selling non-core assets and outsized litigation costs have produced low returns and even outright losses in recent periods, largely masking the earnings power of the core franchise. But while Barclays (ticker: BCS) has struggled coming out of the financial crisis with low returns, good underlying core businesses and returns are just now starting to see the light of day as the clouds of the past slowly recede. Returns moving to and beyond 10% will drive valuations to and above book value and a simple return to book value in the coming years portends a doubling of value. Until recently, Bank of America (BAC) had been languishing at valuations well below book value beset by legacy conduct costs, low to minimal returns hampered by such legacy costs, and investor perspective that could not or would not see the underlying earnings power being masked by historic headwinds. Barclays (BCS) TARGET PRICE: $20.50 INITIAL PRICE: $10.05 Oct. 16 CLOSING PRICE: $10.15 Oct. 18 Like Bank of America a little over a year ago, Barclays today trades at roughly 60% of book value. Its recent annual earnings and returns have been frustratingly low. Legacy fines and costs, low interest rates and a generally anemic banking environment have led to elevated costs and low returns masking the earnings power of its two enduring business: the UK consumer and business bank (Barclays UK); and the transatlantic corporate and investment bank (Barclays International). If we can look past the elevated costs, headwinds and noise surrounding Barclays today, we stand positioned to earn outsized returns in the coming years as headwinds abate and the bank returns to higher, more normalized returns and a more normalized valuation. Moving just to book value in the coming years would double our money. Moving beyond book value to more historically reasonable valuations would bring yet more in the way of financial rewards. Since the arrival of Chief Executive Jes Staley in late 2015 after spending more than 30 years at JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Barclays has been on an accelerated restructuring path. The core businesses have posted strong underlying results while many noncore aspects of the business have been sold or run down. While there is still significant work to be done, much has already been accomplished, particularly in reducing and restructuring the myriad of noncore assets and businesses from l