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Barclay’s mounts legal challenge over car finance claim

Barclays has launched a legal challenge over a ruling that it unfairly paid commission to a car finance broker, underlining growing anxiety among Britain's biggest lenders about the potential scale of an industry-wide compensation bill.

Sky News has learnt that Barclays is mounting a judicial review against the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) over a decision last June that the bank "failed to act fairly and reasonably" in the case of a customer - known only as Miss L - who was not made aware that a loan agreement she entered into included a commission payment worth nearly £1,600.

City sources said on Monday that Barclays had recently decided to launch a legal fight but insisted that its challenge was isolated to the specific case of Miss L because of what it believed were a number of misinterpretations of the law.

According to the FOS, Miss L's case involved a commission paid by Barclays Partner Finance to a credit broker when she took out a loan to buy a car in 2018.

The case was one of two highlighted by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in January when it announced that it was responding to a large number of complaints by reviewing historical motor finance commission arrangements and sales "across several firms".

While this is far from an impressive ROA and is still below the WACC, it is a significant shift away from the past history of destroying a lot of shareholder value and fully justifying a large price-to-book discount. If Barclays can reliably make a return that is close to its cost of capital, the basis for the large discount begins to evaporate and there is a case for the share price to move closer to the NAV as value stops being destroyed. In addition, the NAV itself is forecast to reverse a decade-long period of decline, providing a double driver for the share price – a smaller discount to a larger value. If the discount could be reduced from the current 40 per cent to, say, 25 per cent (which would not be unreasonable on an EVA basis) the shares could be worth 275p against the current 185p, pricing off the forecast 2022 NAV of 365p.

Not exciting but a strong technical story

This is not an especially exciting story and any bull case on the stock is largely a technical one, but one that is nonetheless well-founded. The board is clearly convinced that there is scope to sustain a much higher ROA even if still below the WACC, and the analyst community appears similarly on-side.

The problem is that many fund managers remain cautious and are somewhat jaded after watching poor performance for much of the past decade. Several more quarters of improved performance are likely to be needed to change hearts and minds. So, any rerating of the stock does not appear imminent. It does feel as though it will come in time, but any private investor looking at buying Barclays does need to proceed with their eyes wide open.

Banks are still inherently risky, geared cyclical businesses and Barclays has had the additional burden of losing three chief executives following a string of scandals. The dividend is forecast to rise from last year's 1p to 6p this year. A payout of more than 5 per cent then on to more than 9p by 2023 looks to be on offer at this point, which should be something of a cushion for the risk.

There are still a lot of questions over the pace, extent and sustainability of recovery here and relying on a largely technical argument for buying a share is not the most compelling. While it does feel as though there are many stronger buy cases in the market today, there is certainly some allure in a potential c50 per cent capital gain and a 5 per cent yield, but Barclays is still only one for the less risk-averse.

Costs: There is very little that banks can safely control in their trading but operating costs is one of the few. While Covid has pushed up the ratio of costs to revenue in the near term, they are forecast to fall to their lowest levels in a decade following a concerted drive to manage expenses. Although revenues are only forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2 per cent, this drop in the cost ratio should help drive net margins up more quickly.

Other than cost controls, it is hard to see that Barclays is itself driving the positives and its growth and improving returns have a lot more to do with good fortune than good strategy. Stock markets tend to reward good strategy much more highly than good luck, suggesting that the share price may not automatically follow the improving EPS.

How are banks valued?

Barclays' EPS are rising sharply, but is that what drives the valuation? Not really, as banks are not valued on trading multiples. Rather, the valuation depends on the net asset value (NAV) and the return achieved on those assets relative to the bank’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC). WACC is the average after-tax cost of a company’s different capital sources: ordinary shares, preference shares, bonds and long-term debt. Using economic value added (EVA) calculations, the broad principle is that if a business makes a return above its WACC, the share price should be above its NAV: this is called creating shareholder value. If returns are below the WACC, the fair value for the shares is below NAV: this is called destroying shareholder value.

For Barclays, the market sees the WACC being around 10 per cent, yet its return on assets since 2008 has averaged only 1.7 per cent, with many years having shown a negative return. This means that the current valuation, with the shares trading at 40 per cent below NAV, looks to be fully supported by the group’s trading history. The shares have traded below NAV for almost all of the past 10 years.

However, one of the core adages in investment is not to lean too heavily on the past when trying to predict the future. Barclays’ valuation might be right if you look back, but is that still the case looking forwards?

So, is Barclays cheap or not?

While Barclays does look to be on an improving trend, 2021 is likely to prove a spike, with profits dropping back in 2022, so is this all just a flash in the pan? While profits are forecast to stay below those of 2021 until at least 2024, they are importantly forecast to stay well above the average levels for the preceding 10 years. But, as above, the key factor to look at here is not profitability but the return on assets (ROA). Against the average ROA for the past 10 years of 1.7 per cent, the outlook for this measure is to average nearer 9 per cent between 2019 and 2024 (taking an average of the 2020 slump of 3 per cent and 2021 spike of 12 per cent into account).

Marcus from Goldman Sachs and Chase from JPMorgan could prove materially more disruptive to what has been a stable core for Barclays.

Impairments: Changes in banks’ provisions against bad loans are always a significant part of the movement in annual profits. It was initially feared that Covid would lead to many loans going bad and that rising provisions would hit profits. However, enforced forbearance and generous handouts (avoiding the term ‘bailout’ here) by governments to businesses of all sizes meant the worst of troubles were avoided. In Barclays' first half of FY2021, its pre-tax profits rose by £3.7bn largely due to provisions dropping by £4.4bn to a net release of £700m. This is likely to reverse, but impairments are expected to remain below long-run averages.

Covid-19: Ironically, this has been more of a positive for the banks. Lower impairments as above, unexpected value created by weak share prices driving M&A and a large influx of deposits as household outgoings fell have all been beneficial.

Rising interest rates: Bond yields have been rising and central banks are set to raise prime interest rates to combat the global surge in inflation. Barclays predicts that every 10 basis point increase in interest rates can add £150m to earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) by 2023 due to expansion of its net interest margin – economists currently believe interest rates will have increased by 40 basis points by the end of 2022. This could bump Ebit up by 7-8 per cent. Rising rates are a double-edged sword, however, as credit risk will increase.

Barclays Bank – a cheap stock, technically

Is Barclays finally on the cusp of a long-awaited rerating? Former City analyst Robin Hardy runs the numbers

Investors in Barclays have been waiting a long time for its share price to outperform, but is an about-turn in the offing?

Barclays (BARC) has been out of favour for a long time, since the financial crisis in 2008 in fact. The share price has gone nowhere in the past 10 years, underperforming the FTSE All-Share by 25 per cent. Investors' total return has been just 3 per cent a year – the FTSE 100 has delivered 6.3 per cent and global equities 13.5 per cent in that time. But on most valuation measures, the shares look cheap and in FY2021 Barclays is expected to report a near-fourfold increase in earnings per share (EPS). Could it be on the cusp of a rerating, or are there still too many warning signs telling private investors to steer clear?

Profits are rising: good management or good fortune?

This is the billion-dollar question and sits at the heart of whether or not Barclays’ discounted share price makes the shares a bargain or correctly valued. If good fortune is the catalyst, then improvements may not be sustainable and returns may be of too low quality to justify a change in valuation. Barclays is forecast to report EPS of 34p this year (to December 2021), a level to which it has not come remotely close since 2008. But what is driving this sudden and substantial surge in profit forecasts?

Investment banking storm: There has been a surge in private equity buyouts, merger & acquisition (M&A) activity and initial public offerings leading to a strong increase in fees at Barclays' investment banking operations. However, the current rate of equity market activity is not sustainable and this typically feast-and-famine market is likely to slow. Lower activity also usually leads to lower fee rates, compounding any slowdown in market momentum. Barclays is currently making positive returns in this historically poorly regarded segment (it is volatile and requires a lot of capital) but how long can that last?

Market share gains: Further to the broader surge in equity market activity, Barclays has benefited from other European banks pulling out of the game, leading to much higher market share. The likes of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank have substantially scaled back investment banking on the continent, which is likely to be playing a large part in the board’s confidence that Barclays can avoid a major collapse in investment banking fees – there is no else left in Europe with whom the US banks can look to partner. While there are market share positives in investment banking, there are potential threats in personal banking. Challenger banks such as Metro, Starling, Virgin Money and Monzo have already nibbled some market share, but there is a much bigger threat from US banks coming to the UK.

Nice divi banked £9669.69

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/barclays-agl-launch-private-credit-174112156.html?contentType=VIDEO

One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Barclays PLC BCS. This is because this security in the Banks - Foreign space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity, and is in great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective.

This is important because, often times, a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry, as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board. This is arguably taking place in the Banks - Foreign space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 56 out of more than 250 industries, suggesting it is well-positioned from this perspective, especially when compared to other segments out there.

Meanwhile, Barclays is actually looking pretty good on its own too. The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month, suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm’s prospects in both the short and long term.

Barclays PLC price-consensus-chart | Barclays PLC Quote

In fact, over the past month, current quarter estimates have risen from 49 cents per share to 54 cents per share, while current year estimates have risen from $1.60 per share to $1.62 per share. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is also a favorable signal. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

So, if you are looking for a decent pick in a strong industry, consider Barclays. Not only is its industry currently in the top third, but it is seeing solid estimate revisions as of late, suggesting it could be a very interesting choice for investors seeking a name in this great industry segment.

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.

While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.

Below, we take a look at Barclays (BCS), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.

It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Barclays currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.

You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>

Set to Beat the Market?

In order to see if BCS is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this financial holding company holds up.

Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.

For BCS, shares are up 1.9% over the past week while the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry is up 0.13% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 10.64% compares favorably with the industry's 4.44% performance as well.

Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Shares of Barclays have increased 18.63% over the past quarter, and have gained 40.75% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 10.82% and 32.56%, respectively.

Investors should also take note of BCS's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, BCS is averaging 15,577,282 shares for the last 20 days.

Earnings Outlook

Vim Maru is the new CEO of Barclays UK, while Matt Hammerstein, the previous holder of that role, is now leading the UK corporate bank. Sasha Wiggins is leading the private bank and wealth management division.

Loan Growth

The bank also said last month that it sees risk-weighted assets climbing by £50 billion in the coming years. The company is planning to allocate £30 billion of that to its UK-focused businesses, which include a consumer bank, a corporate bank and a private bank and wealth management division. The remaining £20 billion will be allocated to the US consumer bank.

Part of that is tied to the company’s confidence in the health of the UK and US economies even as the company has seen delinquencies among its consumer customers tick up slightly in recent months, Venkatakrishnan said on Monday.

“The economy is stabilizing, it looks like on both sides of the Atlantic you’re having a softish landing,” he said. “Generally, we are constructive towards lending.”

Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc is seeking to expand its relationships with sovereign wealth funds and private equity giants as part of its efforts to improve the profitability of its investment banking division by expanding in advisory and equity underwriting.

Those firms — which are sitting on trillions of dollars of dry powder for deals — are the kind of key clients Barclays is hoping to secure as it looks to move beyond the debt underwriting for large, multinational corporations that it’s long been known for, Chief Executive Officer C.S. Venkatakrishnan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The bank already has the talent it needs to accomplish that shift, he said.

“We still work with corporations in a very big way, but, in addition to that, you’ve got the financial sponsors and the sovereign wealth funds,” Venkatakrishnan said. “The growth of concentrated pools of capital makes it important to have that full relationship with those players in the market.”

Barclays and its rivals are betting that sovereign wealth funds will continue to deploy billions of dollars to get private equity takeovers across the line amid a broader dearth in deals by corporations. Sovereign wealth funds spent a record $17.2 billion on such co-investments in the first half of last year, which was up 24% from the same period in 2022, Bloomberg has previously reported.

Read more: Private Equity Titans Tap Sovereign Wealth to Get Deals Done

Barclays shares have struggled in recent years and the bank has long faced questions about the viability of its investment bank because of the amount of capital it consumes relative to other, higher-returning parts of Barclays’s business.

But Venkatakrishnan has said that is because it has a larger footprint in debt capital markets relative to peers. That is why he’s now focused on expanding in merger advisory and stock underwriting.

“When you move into advisory fees you start getting a better return on your capital — I think it is an important part of the shift,” he said on Monday. “Our job is to, having created the plan, is to execute it and the share price hopefully will follow.”

Barclays last month announced it would go on a £2 billion ($2.55 billion) cost-cutting drive and reorganize its reporting structure in order to boost profits. The bank vowed to return at least £10 billion to shareholders in the coming years, while it boosts revenue to £30 billion.

Shares of Barclays have surged 9.3% since it unveiled those plans on Feb. 20, making it one of the best performers in the FTSE 100 Index.

As part of the changes, Venkatakrishnan also shuffled his top managers. Adeel Khan was appointed sole head of the global markets division, while his former co-head Stephen Dainton became president of Barclays Bank Plc and head of investment bank management. Cathal Deasy and Taylor Wright are continuing in their current roles as co-heads of banking.

Three Black bankers lose UK race discrimination claim against Barclays

Three Black bankers, who sued Barclays (BARC.L) for a combined 52.8 million pounds ($66.7 million) in London over allegations that included race discrimination, harassment, victimisation and whistleblower detriment, have largely lost their case.

In a near 460-page judgment, the East London Employment Tribunal dismissed the bulk of claims brought by Louis Samnick, a former vice president, vice president Christian Abanda Bella and Henry-Serge Moune Nkeng, an assistant vice president.

The three men of Cameroonian background, who represented themselves in the lengthy case, had alleged they had been bullied, harassed and denied promotion and appropriate support, in part because of their race.

Samnick, a former vice president in the bank's credit risk model validation team, and Abanda Bella, a quantitative analyst, succeeded with a claim that Barclays had failed to make reasonable adjustments for their disabilities during a 2019 performance review.

In a judgment made public on Wednesday, the judge said health issues faced by Samnick and Abanda Bella were sufficiently significant to allow them compensation for this part of the claim. All other complaints failed.

Barclays did not immediately reply to a request for comment and Reuters was unable to reach the claimants.

Abanda Bella joined Barclays in 2017 but has been signed off work with depression since 2019. In his 2019 appraisal, carried out in his absence, his performance was assessed as "needs improvement". Samnick, who received the same 2019 performance rating, had been on sick leave since September 2019.

Ranked as a vice president for 10 years, Samnick resigned in 2021 after securing another bank job at executive director grade, the judgment showed.

A remedy hearing will be called if the parties cannot agree compensation for the single failure to make reasonable adjustments for disabilities.

Qube Research & Technologies, the London-based quant hedge fund firm spun out of Credit Suisse in 2018, has built the largest ever short position against Barclays, representing 0.73% of the bank’s stock, according to a report by The Times.

Qube’s short wager comes despite a recent uptick in the bank’s stock price after Chief Executive CS Venkatakrishnan unveiled a turnaround plan aimed at reviving the lender’s fortunes, and suggests that Qube, or its algorithms, believe the rally will be temporary.

Venkatakrishnan, who has been under pressure to boost Barclays’s stock market valuation to bring it more inline with its European and US peers, pledged on 20 February to return at least £10bn to shareholders over three years, cut costs and lift annual revenues to £30bn by 2026.

Shares have since surged by 20% to 177.5p, the stock’s highest level in a year.

The report cites regulatory fillings as revealing that Qube has been increasing its short wager against Barclays during the course of the share price rally, after reaching the 0.5% threshold that triggers disclosure of short bets to City watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), on 27 February.

The report also quotes a Qube spokesman in saying that the company’s trading did not reflect a “fundamental view on any individual name” and that the firm had “no specific view on Barclays”.

To infinity and beyond

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-plcs-dividend-analysis-141126321.html

Barclays to sell $1.1bn of US credit card debt to Blackstone

Barclays (BARC.L) has agreed to sell about $1.1 billion of credit card debt in the United States to Blackstone , in a deal the British bank said would free up capacity to expand lending and reduce balance sheet risk.

Barclays said the agreement reflected its recently-announced strategy to prioritise growing lending to consumers, and would reduce the bank's risk weighted assets by around 1 billion pounds.

Banks globally have been making greater use of credit risk transfers to shed risk from loan portfolios, Reuters has reported, with investors sharing the risk of losses.

Blackstone's investment has been made through insurance accounts managed by the company's asset-based finance group. Barclays will continue to service the accounts for a fee.

Barclays' investment bank acted as an advisor to Blackstone on the transaction.

"During our Investor Update, we said that we would leverage strategic partnerships to execute risk transfer agreements to reduce capital requirements. I am delighted to announce this first agreement in our U.S. cards book," Barclays Finance Director Anna Cross said.

Barclays PLC (LON:BARC) will increase its dividend on the 3rd of April to £0.053, which is 6.0% higher than last year's payment from the same period of £0.05. Although the dividend is now higher, the yield is only 4.9%, which is below the industry average.

See our latest analysis for Barclays

Barclays' Earnings Will Easily Cover The Distributions

The dividend yield is a little bit low, but sustainability of the payments is also an important part of evaluating an income stock.

Having distributed dividends for at least 10 years, Barclays has a long history of paying out a part of its earnings to shareholders. Past distributions do not necessarily guarantee future ones, but Barclays' payout ratio of 29% is a good sign as this means that earnings decently cover dividends.

Over the next 3 years, EPS is forecast to expand by 47.1%. The future payout ratio could be 29% over that time period, according to analyst estimates, which is a good look for the future of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was £0.065 in 2014, and the most recent fiscal year payment was £0.08. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.1% a year over that time. The dividend has seen some fluctuations in the past, so even though the dividend was raised this year, we should remember that it has been cut in the past.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. Barclays has impressed us by growing EPS at 25% per year over the past five years. Earnings have been growing rapidly, and with a low payout ratio we think that the company could turn out to be a great dividend stock.

Barclays Looks Like A Great Dividend Stock

Overall, we think this could be an attractive income stock, and it is only getting better by paying a higher dividend this year. Earnings are easily covering distributions, and the company is generating plenty of cash. Taking this all into consideration, this looks like it could be a good dividend opportunity.

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Over the last decade,

c.£16bn litigation and conduct addressed?