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Petrol price at my local shell was £129 on Saturday, on the Tuesday it was £133 to day it’s £136.9

What are your stock picks for Monday (regarding Iran vs USA)?

To be honest all good picks seem to be priced in. As if some rich friends of someone very important knew beforehand what to invest it back in Q4 of 2025 :D

Chevron, XOM, LMT, ITA, GLD <-- I'd buy this if not for an already big upwards trend. I'm always hesitant to buy at such prices, even if there are strong news on it.

The only bet I want to place now is shorting UAL on 5x with some beer money, but that's just for fun.

What are your speculations? Have you decided on buying anything specific yet?

EDIT: here's some AI slop analysis (on extended thinking paid GPT model) - you may comment on that as well:

I already have a list. The most important conclusion: this is not a setup for “buy everything related to the war,” but rather for selective trading on three channels: oil/energy, gold, and defense. The biggest trap on Monday will be chasing the gap at the opening if there is even a partial de-escalation on Sunday or if OPEC+ surprises with a larger increase in supply.

For Monday, March 2, 2026, I would set up a watchlist around three baskets: energy/oil, gold, defense. The reason is simple: after Saturday's strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's response, the market is most likely playing it safe due to possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Reuters also reports that some companies and shipowners have already suspended shipments through Hormuz, but at the same time, OPEC+ is expected to consider a larger increase in supply on Sunday, which may limit further oil rallies.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2% of global demand.

While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi pipeline, said Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens.

The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies.

Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.

"We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait," Parmar said.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Barclays analysts also said prices could hit $100.

LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.

"While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz," said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.

Oil prices jump as Middle East tensions escalate

Oil prices climbed sharply as tensions in the Middle East escalated following the launch of US and Israeli military action against Iran in the early hours of Saturday.

Brent crude was trading between $72.5 and $72.9 per barrel, while US benchmark WTI hovered around $67 per barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets.

Even before the latest developments, crude prices had risen more than 15% since the start of the year amid growing concerns about potential conflict in the region, counterbalancing wider expectations of global oversupply.

The surge follows reports that Israeli forces carried out a pre-emptive strike on Tehran, with multiple explosions reported across the Iranian capital. The operation represents a significant escalation in regional tensions and has reverberated through global energy markets, with traders reassessing supply risks across the Gulf.

Https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/finterra-2026-2-10-the-pragmatic-pivot-a-deep-dive-into-bps-strategy-and-stock-outlook-for-2026?utm_source=copilot.com



https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/bp-plc-nysebp-short-interest-down-342-in-january-2026-02-14/

FinancialContent - BP Shares Defy Oil Slump as Investors Bet on Meg O’Neill and a High-Stakes 'Efficiency Reset'

https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-2-6-bp-shares-defy-oil-slump-as-investors-bet-on-meg-oneill-and-a-high-stakes-efficiency-reset

BP Share Price Near £5—Should You Buy Ahead of Quarterly Earnings?

Renewed oil demand and Venezuela energy news have fueled a surge in BP stock.

Read in Morningstar UK: https://stocks.apple.com/AEH0YnaS4QZOomJe4effcVQ

While BP continues to try to sell its Russian asset, it continues to generate profits. Where is that money going? In the company’s statement today it said that “from the first quarter of 2022, BP has no longer reported oil and gas production from Russia”, pushing its total production down by 40 per cent compared with 2019. But Rosneft is doing well: its most recent results show its net income rose 13.1 per cent to 432bn roubles (£5bn) in the first half of 2022, with shareholders (“including BP”, Rosneft pointedly remarked) receiving over 441bn roubles in dividends. That money has to go somewhere. If not onto BP’s balance sheet, then where?

In a December update on its plans to exit Russia, BP announced that it written off $24bn following its decision, and insisted that it had “not received any dividends from the Rosneft shares”. It added: “It is our understanding that, under Russian regulations, any payments to a company in an ‘unfriendly state’ such as the UK would go into a highly restricted Russian bank account from which money could not be transferred without Russian government approval.” This followed an update in September, in which BP had said that it was owed dividends worth about 49bn roubles but that it had “not been formally notified of any such payment being made”.

BP's Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is currently lower than some of its main rivals, specifically Shell and ExxonMobil. While BP's ROCE has improved significantly over the last few years, its rivals have generally maintained higher returns.

Company Performance Comparison (Latest TTM ROCE)

Name Return On Capital Employed (TTM)

Equinor ASA 28.1%

TotalEnergies SE 11.2%

Shell PLC 10.2%

ExxonMobil Corp 9.7%

BP PLC 5.9%

TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, based on data up to the end of 2024 fiscal year or Q1/Q2 2025 where available.

Key Insights

Lagging Behind: BP's latest ROCE of 5.9% is considerably lower than Shell's 10.2% and ExxonMobil's 9.7%.

Industry Average: The general oil and gas industry average is around 8.4% to 9.4% depending on the specific region and time period measured, meaning BP is currently slightly below average while its main rivals are above.

Improving Trend: Despite the lower current figure, BP has shown promising improvement, with its ROCE rising significantly over the last five years due to increased efficiencies without substantial additional capital investment.

Future Targets: BP has a target to achieve a return on average capital employed (ROACE) of above 16% by 2027, indicating a strong focus on closing the gap with its peers.

Debt & Flexibility: BP has a higher debt load and gearing compared to some peers like ExxonMobil, which can limit its financial flexibility and impacts its overall capital efficiency metrics.

BP was downgraded amid management turnover and commodity sensitivity. Evercore ISI said “uncertainty around their cash return strategy” and elevated Brent leverage skew risks “modestly negative,” reaffirming its $38 target.

The bull case deep dive: A closer look at bp’s cash flows - Edison Group

https://www.edisongroup.com/insight/tx-und-wv1-bp-bull-case-deep-dive/

Performance Summary

BP's latest twelve months free cash flow yield is 11.8%

BP's free cash flow yield for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged 15.4%.

BP's operated at median free cash flow yield of 17.5% from fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.

Looking back at the last 5 years, BP's free cash flow yield peaked in December 2023 at 22.4%.

BP's free cash flow yield hit its 5-year low in December 2020 of 5.9%.

BP's free cash flow yield decreased in 2020 (5.9%, -1.1%) and 2024 (17.5%, -21.9%) and increased in 2021 (10.0%, +67.7%), 2022 (21.4%, +115.0%), and 2023 (22.4%, +4.4%).

Over the past 5 years, BP was usually undervalued. On average, its stock price was 68% lower than its intrinsic value.

Today, the stock is undervalued by 69%, which is close to its average valuation over the past 5 years.

WTI crude oil futures fell below $57 per barrel on Monday as investors assessed the implications of the US attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Markets are weighing the potential impact on regional crude supply, given that Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. However, some analysts expect limited disruption, noting that Venezuela currently produces less than 1 million barrels of crude per day, accounting for under 1% of global output. Others warn that oil prices could rise later this year amid concerns that more aggressive US pressure on global adversaries, including Iran, may tighten supply conditions. The White House is reportedly urging US companies to help revive Venezuela’s oil industry if they seek compensation for assets expropriated by the country roughly two decades ago. Meanwhile, OPEC+ on Sunday reaffirmed its decision to keep output steady in the first quarter.

India's Reliance Industries said on Monday that there was no claim from the Indian government seeking $30 billion against the company and BP .

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-15432859/Dirt-cheap-British-stocks-tipped-experts-soar.html

We could be back on the way up, those candlesticks are telling me. Monday morning awaits.