Member Info for booboouberbear

Yes, interest rates can never go up to any “normal” pre-2008 rates for decades IMO, at 1% nominal yields on federal debt the US Federal Government is paying 9/10% of all federal budget outlays on servicing the debt, at 6/7% nominal yields that goes to 100%. That is how quickly a country can go broke when you have such high debt ratios.

We can debate if there will be inflation, but if there is it won’t matter to US Interest Rates as the US Federal Reserve will crush the yield curve, because any other course of action will bankrupt the US.

Therefore no matter what way you look at it there will be negative yielding US Debt (after inflation) for decades to come?

I think that is right, Basscadet. Inflation as a phenomena is now out of living memory for most people working today, it’s a case of out of sight, out of mind for everyone. There seems to be zero thought currently to any possible recriminations to the extreme money creation that is going on and the outright surging of the M2 Money Supply within the US is jaw dropping.

On the basis that the US Federal Government or US Federal Reserve will never allow the markets to crash and these bubbles to burst, as you would have to assume any resulting crash would spark mass hysteria now the bubbles are so large, the only other option is the maintain the asset inflation and bubbles to be maintained and to take the consequences of this, which, sooner or later has to be rampant inflation and yield curve control IMO.

Has decided (despite what the data says) that Biden will come in and shower the economy with cash. We are now in a scenario that despite COVID cases and deaths spiralling higher in the US and US Non-Farm Payroll data actually showing jobs lost in the last month that the market is rewarding this with a higher US Dollar and skyrocketing yields on US Debt!

Equity Markets? Yep they are all rocketing too. It’s now just a feeding frenzy that has lost all grips on reality where fundamental data and the bottom rung of society doesn’t even register anymore.

Where does this all end? It has to be rampant inflation and a crashing dollar hasn’t it?

Also, the new 10tph mill and the new 2 tonne oxygen plant will be installed and fully operational from January, we were previously told the new 10tph mill can increase throughput by 14% and the new 2 tonne oxygen plant will aid recovery percentages so we could be in for a bumper spell of production numbers and reduced cash costs and AISC as a result.

Taking off the hedge at current levels we are looking at USD$1100 tonne profit per ounce before taxes and royalties.

After the current euphoria it remains to be seen how much longer the bump in the Greenback will last? The ADP Jobs numbers, released yesterday showed 130k job losses in December and we will see what the US Non-Farm Payrolls brings tomorrow, but the US is now in / close to recession, so we can expect more Trillions from the US Treasury / US Fed not long after Biden is inaugurated.

As for US Treasury Yield, the US Fed won’t let these go too far and I think we all know that.

It was an orchestrated and co-ordinated attack at approx. 12:30pm today when the news hit Bloomberg that the Moderna Vaccine had been approved by the EU. They have continued to hammer the PM Market since then with some pretty tasty paper volumes. You can’t cheat gravity forever though…

Agreed, CD. With the crashing US Greenback and food commodity prices flashing warning signs with the big commodities like corn, wheat and soy all going to multi-year highs recently. Inflation when it really kicks in will send Gold up rapidly, all we are seeing just now during the COVID-19 pandemic is the “entrée” to the "main course" which will be a debasement, inflation and wholesale horror show throughout the West.

With the news just released that the EU has approved the Modena Vaccine, obscene that they can just thrash it in such a manner…

It’s one of the reasons you can see the allure of Crypto’s, i.e. the banking and world order establishment don’t have control over it like AUX, but it is also for that reason they will probably shut it down for.

An RNS and Appointment with real intentions that.

They must have promised him a serious (for SHG) amount of exploration resources to take up the appointment, which in itself tells you where our 3 No. mines could be heading, given time.

You wonder if the financial markets and central bank policy makers actually believe their own words when it comes to inflation being dead, because history says otherwise…

“Yet back then, the mounting debt overhang was finessed by a reflationary surge in GDP, which caused the debt-to-GDP ratio to plummet to 47% by 1957. “All” it took was a 6.4% average consumer inflation rate from 1946 to 1951. Maybe that is all it will take this time as well. But what might that spell for interest rates, debt service, and incredibly frothy financial markets? Don’t look to MMT for an easy answer.”

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemics-long-economic-shadow-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-12

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-12-21/Shanta-gold-have-settled-past-deals-and-now-are-looking-ahead-to-the-future.html

Today, this AU investing business is a marathon not a sprint. Next year looking tasty indeed for us.

Funny old game this, the US Fed commits to buying bonds and securities at USD$120b a month until unemployment is back below 4% again in the US (years down the line) and the markets take it as bad news! What a freak show Capitalism has become!

CD, end of Q1 2021 we will be north of $2K per ounce IMO.

Although, I am pretty sanguine about it, history tells us (refer end of WW2) the only way you take care of deficits of this size is to enact yield curve control and allow inflation to eat your debts / currency away. Make no mistake, 2021 – onwards will be no different, plus this time you have a ballooning social security / healthcare problem and aging population to contend with.

Hyperinflation in the West is a stick on at some point and with it Gold (and every other hard asset) will fly.

Worth watching tonight to see if they alter their bond buying programme and if the pay cognisance to the fact that long term bond yields are rising. They may shift their buying to long term bonds and if they do that should be taken as a sign that the will be enacting yield curve control (even if they don’t actually spit it out) which will be bullish for Gold.

Retail Sales in the US also shrunk by 1%+ last month so the narrative is that the US will be contracting before the year is out. They’ll be a stimulus under Trump just before he leaves then expect Biden / Yellen and Powell to really let rip on the dark arts of the fiscal / monetary side of things from January onwards.

With what is going on here I am assuming we will be going back to 20p pretty soon IMO. Hedge and increased production at NLGM should do that alone.

That’s a welcome RNS and shows what can be found at NLGM if the money is spent on the drilling, early days but they Grades at Porcupine look well above what is coming out of NLGM currently!

Good write up. Agreed, things here are looking very good. They have built (are building) an enviable business and growth story here.

The real reward for us will come in late 2021 going into 2022 IMO. There is a massive structural in-built spike in inflation coming and due to debt around the globe it will be 5 / 6% inflation by the time Central Banks even begin to tackle it.

https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/602456/grab-your-gold-inflation-is-coming

Judging by the US Data we have had out in the last 24 hours or so it looks like the US is back in recession or damn near it and US Unemployment is rising again as States intact Lockdowns.

US Lawmakers appear intent on making things worse before they have to make things better. I expect a massive Biden stimulus next year, with / without Congress help, if Congress don’t help expect a US Fed / US Treasury / Executive Order bag of tricks to flood the country with stimulus.

2021 should be a good year for unhedged SHG.

The Senate Bipartisan committee on agreeing a stimulus is meeting IMO