Member Info for booboouberbear

At this rate we are looking at adding 200k+ ounces in 2021 for $8/10m? At the current rate of production of 80k per year that could be close to 3 years production being added in 2021 with an expansion to 100k production this year at some point, kind of crazy the market just shrugs it’s shoulders at that with WK and Singida also to add in. Gets better by the day here.

That’s a pretty good description, the US 10 and 30 year yields are cratering, seems real demand for long term US Debt despite it already being 3% in the hole as soon as you buy it!

100k above expectations on the headline and bang on the wage inflation number, market like it, 10 and 30 year yield fall and gold has a small pop northwards, as you were.

Interesting to see if the “worker shortage” theme continues and the headline number misses, but the average hourly earnings beats which will signal ongoing labour inflation.

Possibly, possibly not. If you look at the 1970s for example, high interest rates, high inflation and high gold prices all occupied the same space at the same time.

However, largely you are correct, the US Gov / US Fed are between a rock and a hard place with debt ratios so sky high, if inflation rages do you allow interest rates to rise to protect your currency / prevent spiralling consumer prices and allow a market / jobs / housing crash, because that is what will happen if interest rates go up by any reasonable amount, or do they simply just allow it to rage like they did at the end of WW2 when inflation hit 20% and allow the inflation to “burn off” the excess debts in the economy while the economy goes great guns?

At 6% average interest rates, the US Federal Government’s entire budget would be taken up by debt repayments, there is very little they can now truth be told if inflation pops, they need to sit on their hands because it is now the lesser of two evils. And this is all before they even get to their future liabilities for the Boomer Generation, which they can't afford.

Another fantastic RNS, what an asset WK is going to be. We still have the NLGM results to come in July / August and (hopefully) the ramp up in production there to 100k ounces per year.

The weakness here is odd, but it’s allowed me another top up today. IT won’t maintain this SP for ever!

Took some more myself, yesterday and today. NLGM and WK are due updates and I’m hoping they are good!

Forget all the fluff…

“The central bank gave no indication as to when it will begin cutting back on its aggressive bond-buying program. The Fed has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.”

“The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, but the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are “transitory.”

The market will no doubt fixate on the fact that they have pushed forward possible rate increases from 2024 to 2023, but in truth they have risen the flag to huge inflation and with it AUX should do very well.

A big inflation number and much more to come, we will be above 8%+ PPI sometime in late Summer / early Fall in the US as I see the numbers panning out (could be worse if the worker supply problem becomes ingrained and the drought ingulfing the western USA turns out to consume the Corn and Spring Wheat crops). That inflation hasn’t been seen since the 70s. The market has chosen to ignore all of this and simply believe what the FED is telling them it’s all going to be okay and it’s only real inflation if the FED says so, of course they are, if it goes the other way the consequences are too much for Funds and Hedges to begin to comprehend.

Agree, CD, expect the unexpected. I expect an upwards surprise in the Non-Core PPI and Core CPI numbers as that is the way it looks to me as wage inflation and goods prices in the US are flying, but beyond that who knows how the market will take it, most hedges and funds have just stuck their fingers in their ears and hope this is all just an aberration and it all merely goes away as their bankrollers at the US Fed keep telling them.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-06-08/Economy-is-sitting-on-a-time-bomb-Deutsche-Bank-warns-of-devastating-effects-of-inflation.html

Interesting comments on inflation by DB.

If you want to know where US Wage Inflation (and Inflation generally) is going all you need do is check out the latest Job Openings and Labour Survey (JOLTS) numbers from the Department of Labor just released.

All time record Job Openings, and beat the forecast by close to 1 Million openings!

Big pop in US Inflation incoming in the next few months:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers

AUX firming up nicely. Thursday’s US PPI and CPI Inflation numbers should be interesting. It will show that holding US 10 and 30 Year T-Bills are underwater by some 3% real rates (and due to get worse), sooner or later a reckoning happens one way or another in the Bond Market.

I load up as and when I can here as one day this has to go seriously north IMO.

The US Federal Reserves preferred inflation measures, the PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index rose 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively for the month of April ’21. Remembering these are the most “massaged” of all the real US Inflation numbers then you can expect a very large jump in Non-Core PPI and Core CPI as a result when they are released on Thursday 10 June and you may be close to 6% Annualised Inflation on the Non-Core PPI for the May ’21 reading, which would be the biggest comparable inflationary reading “like for like” in decades:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index

This is faster than even I thought this would rise and we are only digesting April ’21 numbers, there is a real possibility we hit a double digit number sometime in 2021, of course, the debate is how “transitory” it is, and if this “bleeds” into wages wholesale, it’ll be fire works, for that look at the hour wage rise numbers in the Non-Farm Payroll numbers next Friday 28 May for clues.

I see AUX has risen in late trade today!

On inflation by Stephen S Roach on how today maybe lines up with historical comparisons:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-sanguine-inflation-view-recalls-arthur-burns-by-stephen-s-roach-2021-05

Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q1 and PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q1 are out today at 1:30pm BST, these are the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation (i.e. the ones that have been gutted of all the actual inflation to make things look better) followed by the Core and Non-Core PCE Price Index tomorrow at 1:30pm.

The market will react to these numbers as they are very sensitive to inflation indicators at present. If they come in “hot” you can better believe that the PPI and CPI in two weeks time will be very hot indeed as these have largely not been tampered with by the US Federal Reserve.

That Yuri lad was practically wetting himself with excitement.

Who knows what they may eventually stumble on in terms of size, scope and commercial viability. It’s a geological stone’s throw away from the Geita Gold Mine which despite being in stop start production since the 1930s still has 6m+ ounces of Mineral resources of AU in the ground and is a Tier 1 producer.

WK is in virgin greenbelt territory and the Grades (at least at the moment) at reasonable depths coming out are multiples what Geita's averages are, it’s mouth watering what the potential could be.

“A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases,”

Doesn’t really say what or when that (in fact no detail whatsoever) is but it’s enough to send everything into plunge-mode!

Whatever you think of Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies, generally (multi-currency systems always hold some libertarian appeal) there is no way the US Treasury nor the US Federal Reserve is going to stand by and watch USD$600b+ or so splosh about and traded daily in completely unregulated and dark markets for much longer, the axe cometh and soon!

Bitcoin in full tank at the moment, is that cash circulating into AUX?