Member Info for booboouberbear

Re: District Level Gold Mine…

Considering the Geita Gold Mine sits on the same geological formation (also stope mining) as West Kenya on the Lake Victoria Goldfields, the potential is enormous to us. Geita has been operational since the 1930s on a large scale and has removed north of 10m Ounces and are still sitting on a Mineral Resource of 6m+ Ounces!

Shanta should get some 40k / 50k meters of infill drilling done for the USD$8m they are proposing on spending for a year’s drilling campaign and it’s truly exciting to see what come out of this, I don’t believe these guys would be spending (what is for us) a great deal of cash like USD$8m. It’s a start of a journey at West Kenya but you have to expect that EZ and Team expect West Kenya to be a multimillion ounce resource IMO.

The grades that are getting pulled out of Geita for example are only 30/50% that of the 12 g/t currently stated at West Kenya.

Tomorrow will be interesting with the US Federal Reserve having their Press Conference at 7:30pm after their rate decision at 7pm.

No matter what Greenback sop they may give the market the fact remains they will be printing trillions for years to come and (in all but name) will continue to control the US Treasury Yield Curve (another strong show inflation day with US Import / Export Prices posting much bigger gains than anticipated).

What is interesting is that Asia clearly believes the Greenback is in deep trouble, each morning early on before we have gotten out of our beds AUX is always on the rise, it’s only when the Paper ETF Jockeys on the COMEX get going does it begin to come down, you’d almost be forgiven for believing the whole of the CME / COMEX is in on an act to keep the Greenback solvent and as a result AUX subdued…..

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-14/Get-ready-for-new-records-gold-commodities-in-sweet-spot-Frank-Holmes.html

It sure will be interesting watching the US on the run up to November. Of course, in reality whoever wins the Greenback will continue to weaken over time. Biden plans to spend cash like a tramp who just found a stuffed wallet outside Tesco. No one really knows what Trump’s plan is other than to run 10%+ deficits over the next 4 years and hope for a miracle.

Agree with that, I also think there is just a healthy amount of rotation out of overpriced stocks (tech) and in to very under-priced stocks (mining). And because of our very low ratio between share price and free cash yield we are due to bounce when people notice us. Plus, if EZ is talking to investors about a possible Divi in the years to come, you can better believe they will start to arrive on mass chasing a yield at a time and place where little yields anymore.

My vision here’s is for AU to perform / gain like it has over the last 2 years over the next 2 years. At the same time NL and Singida will be producing at 115-120k Ounce per year and WK will be a huge near term producing asset. With no hedge and possibly a divident share it’s mouth watering what the SP could be....

Absolutely, to me the parallels with the 1920s / 1930s are beginning to look more and more stark by the day. The current leadership in charge of western democracies would give the “guilty men” of that era a run for their money. There is nothing my listless incompetence as far as the eye can see with no actual strategy other than to print money to plug the societal chasms that are now opening up.

Interesting unemployment data released today in the US. It makes a complete mockery of the US Non-Farm Payroll Data released last Friday.

Combining both the Labour Department Weekly Releases and Congress’s Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Programme (PAU) which was part of the CARES Act Stimulus Bill, the combined total comes to 29.6m people in the US claiming unemployment benefits during the last week. When sliced against the amount of people of working age in the US (205m) it throws up a real unemployment rate of something close to 14.5% (that’s being generous as it doesn’t count the millions of people who now have left the system altogether and now don’t show up).

Europe will be no better of course and it shows the predicament we are in as a western society.

I’d expect the printing presses to go into overdrive when the $h!t hit’s the fan on both sides of the pond come the Autumn / Winter!

The Inflation Data coming out of the US continues to add weight to rising inflation, US PPI and Core PPI Data continues to overshoot estimates so expect and overshoot on tomorrow’s Inflation Data Readout.

Marries with the US10 Year Bond auction last evening, the yield jumped significantly, will be interesting to see what the FED does next week in response to it.

AUX has just gone positive for the day. Now that is noteworthy on a day when the markets tank and the USD$ Index has a substantial rise!

Sounds about right to me, Colonel.

The US Federal Reserve will step in with even more QE (over and above the current lunacy) if the market continues to crater (Trump will demand it before the Election in November) and Powell won’t risk a stock market / housing slump to feed its way into the overall economy (despite making unsustainable bubbles). Also expect another USD1T or so stimulus when Congress returns this week before too long, again, it’s an election year lest we forget and the market slump will ‘focus’ their minds.

Sooner or later AUX goes ballistic.

In the markets. US Dollar firming up on market volatility (why AUX is down). NASDAQ in pre-market trading is being crushed, yet again.

I guess Jay Powell’s soothing words on Friday haven’t done it’s trick, so expect more Federal Reserve “bazookas” to be launched.

Are absolutely fantastic what a superb asset this will be in the medium / long term.

What are peoples view on the PEA or lack thereof? Should we expect this when they have done the infill drilling in Q4?

We should be expecting the Singida Financing / Construction Plan any day now.

As for the SP, this share is very much like the AU Markets, our road to Damascus is most definitely a marathon and not a sprint!

Tin foil hat or not, you are of course correct, there will come a choice, do you defend your FIAT Currency at the onslaught of hyperinflation and jack up interest rates or do you simply just let inflation take root and debase your FIAT Currency into worthlessness…

Both come with monumental societal issues. Simple 30/40% wheat flour inflation can be attributed to the ‘Arab Spring’ when the price of bread rocketed for the poor. History tells us when the masses start to starve to death the masses take to the streets, the October Revolution, the 1949 Chinese Revolution, none of this went well for the ‘establishment’ of its time.

But equally, to defend your FIAT Currency (ERM Black Wednesday 1992) you have to take actions that would be so discorporate to anything that has ever gone before. With debts to GDP Ratios of 30% and with interest rates at 6% (as was the case in 1992) you can easily defend your FIAT Currency with a short, sharp hike in interest rates, it’s painful, but readily survivable. Try doing that now? 0% interest rates for 13 years and debts to GDP Ratios well above 100%+ and rising, if you were to defend your FIAT Currency with sharp interest rate hikes you had better be prepared for half your population to be thrown out their houses (that would also collapse the banking / financial system). Again, in such a scenario, expect serious civil issues.

There is no easy get out of jail card here. The only reason Countries / Central Banks are getting away with this to this point is because of the utter corruption at the heart of the system. They are filling the mouths of the global ruling elite’s bankers and Hedge Funds with so much cash via money printing that they have decided to sit there and not rock the boat. If this never ending stream of trillion$ stop then they will turn on Countries / Central Banks without as much as a second thought and destroy their currency.

The FED won’t be able to idly sit by and watch long dated US Treasury Bonds shot higher, considering the amount of Treasury Debt being issued (remember some USD$4T needs to be issued by the Treasury by the end of 2021 on current CBO Budget Numbers and USD$8.5T of existing debt needs to be rolled over by the end of 2021, also) they will eventually step in and crush the yield curve (despite what they may publically say) and just start buying the market and pushing down the yield’s particular on the 10 and 30 year because with these kind of numbers they can’t afford not to and inflict much higher interest rates on themselves / the economy if the market was to set the interest rates.

The only historical context for this kind of market intervention in the US was at the end of WW2, where the FED implemented yield curve control on their debts as US Debt to GDP was at 100%+. This resulted in two years of hyperinflation and their Debt to GDP Ration tumbled in the late 40s and early 50s as a result. They are in a much bigger hole now than they were then.

As an example, the FED now owns in one guise or another 33% of all mortgage debt in the US (is going up). They simply can’t let interest rates go up as that will increase bad debts and more foreclosures and would cause a housing crash that would savage their own multi-trillion dollar mortgage debts as assets on their books (could crash the Greenback) as a result not to mention bankrupt the US Banking System. The same goes for the ludicrous US Stock Market valuations, more and more has to be fed in to the system so it doesn’t collapse. If you think the above is now starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme more and more by the day then you’d be right.

This is all happening at a time when real US Unemployment is close to 15% (ignore that nonsense Non-Farm Payroll Number) all you have to do is combine the state and federal data for unemployment benefits being taken up and you see the extent of the real problem out there.

They are in one hell of a hole and they know only inflation will solve it and are now publically admitting this.

“10,000m of drilling at New Luika planned for the next 6 months in the best areas”.

Considering that 6,000m of drilling just recently announced added 75k of new ounces you could almost be looking at another 1.5x that to be added in the next 6/9 months to the reserves.

This morning. Building a great long term and sustainable portfolio and I would expect the Singida Funding RNS in the next week judging on all the information contained within this morning’s RNS IMO.

The great thing with having so much positive cash flows is we can now really start to ramp up exploration yet further into next year and really grow those reserves (massive scope for enlargement) and have 2 great assets with medium / long LoMs producing 115-120k ounces per year.

And who knows what West Kenya will bring?

I think that is probably right, with nothing yielding anything anymore it has to find a home.

Because of that you can now see the start of a dangerous housing bubble here and in the US despite having no economy that warrants it. The money is leaking out and blowing ever more bubbles in an assortment of different asset classes.

As you say, the rich won’t be held left holding the baby though, it’s all the other mugs.

At what point does the Stock Markets, and in particular the US Stock Indices become so saturated / exhausted with cheap liquidity that it crashes?

The valuations on some utter garbage is truly amazing, especially in the NASDAQ. Can it simply keep going as long as the US Federal Reserve keeps pumping the cash in or is there a saturation point where it will simply tank as it can’t go any further?

I still don’t really know where our obvious ‘buyer’ would come from and I don’t see a buyout IMO.

But to play along, on the basis of Luika / Singida in production and a forward looking 12 / 24 months production guidance of 115k Oz per annum based on AUX at USD$1,800 at a reasonable P/E Ratio it really should be approx. USD$500m / 60p per share or so IMO.

This doesn’t include West Kenya or AUX surging at some point, which it may!