Member Info for bonzoful

And for any that need reminding, strategic collaboration between Seeing Machines and Valeo announced on 8 July 2024

GM using NVIDiA Drive: second link at end of latest from CB. NVIDIA Drive incorporates QNX. And Seeing Machines first DMS integrated with QNX: announced by Blackberry on 6 January.

Appreciate our exchanges. Difference between us is I give more weight to shift from cost plus work to royalties. Once royalties predominate this will be a cash churning stock. Few people understand DMS and its potential. Fantastic opportunity for those that do.

Looks to me like some pro/pros are shorting expecting to be able to buy back at lower levels. SEE may appear vulnerable because of slippage in breakeven and disruption of automotive industry exacerbated by uncertain tariffs. Having rechecked prospects for revenue and costs I regard this as an opportunity to top up before the turning point arrives at some unknown time. At which point any shorters have to buy back at the same time as those who have sold out and are waiting to buy back in at a lower price.

Brockwi

I agree your points subject to two observations. Between end Dec 23 and end Dec 24 the Australian dollar fell from around 0.68 USD to around 0.63 USD. Most ( not all) of the recurring revenues are earned in Australian dollars. So if revenue were reported in Australian dollars there would be an increase of 5 per cent or so. Less than expected but as the dollar falls revenue expressed on USD will rise. Second, within flatish revenue there is a shift going on between low margin sales and high margin sales which is resulting in reduced losses.

Getting to cash breakeven is and always has been vital. If that is achieved by Dec 2025, with good prospects of growing royalties ahead, refinancing the loan will be doable. The alternative would probably be painful for those of us who continue to hold. I think the company will do it and once that is clear the share price will bounce. Difficult to think who would then be selling. So I prefer to hold.

Brockwi

Many thanks for the feedback. Will review the differences in our forecasts in the light of what we learn in next couple of weeks.

Revisited the numbers. FY 2024 Total revenue $67.6m ( of which aftermarket 41.1m and OEM 26.5m). Loss $31.2m. Costs $98.8m.

Revenue flatlined in FY 2025H1. Aftermarket likely to show steady growth as its difficult to believe any director is going to take it out once installed. And as Matmi74 reminded us SEE report being "engaged with 11 OEMs on 18 expanding programmes with a cumulative total lifetime revenue of $392m, most of which is expected to be recognised over the period to 2028" (2024 Annual report. ). A cautious allocation of revenue from OEMs under existing programmes for FY 25 to FY 28 would be $m 35, 45, 55, 65 with 198 FY 29 onwards. Add aftermarket at $m 45, 50, 55, 60. Assume costs held around current cash level around 100. The picture is consistent with breakeven by end calender 2025 ( midway through FY 2026). With, even on these ultra cautious assumptions modest profits thereafter

New wins provide upside.

Mixed feelings. Which magazine today issued negative account of consumers reaction to DMS. No mention of reasons for it and no distinction between different suppliers of DMS. Musks attacks on regulators in USA going to undermine efforts to implement effective DMS there. Dont think much SEE statement could do to reassure anyone on these things.

Dont think any professional investors will be buying until cash break even achieved. And Magna loan due Oct 2026 beginning to loom as a problem. So wont be buying more until way forward clearer.

On upside case for DMS overwhelming. So wont sell. Or rely on any return for years yet. Not happy about it. But it was my decision to invest and I dont blame anyone else.

I wonder if payments start accruing to SEE (or other relevant DMS supplier) when DMS activated rather than when car produced. If so could be steep rises as DMS activated.

I believe SEEs tech will have lots of applications in the future. But the company is right to focus on getting to cash flow breakeven for now. The prospect of DMS being required in US cars has diminished as Musk cuts the regulators. The risk of recession in the US increases as Trump starts trade wars. And that wont help the rest of the world economy. Japan and Europe remain the best hopes. Progress in China would be great.

The KPIs will be of interest to the few who follow the story but I dont expect they will shift demand for the shares for more than a day or two. The three things that are likely to increase demand for the shares are (i) publishing 2025H1 accounts which will show a strengthened balance sheet (ii) announcing cash break even has been met and (iii) publishing audited accounts showing SEE is generating cash. The last is still 12 months away. As long as we are on track for that its worth hanging in.

Worth bearing in mind that if the DMS market is to thrive the OEMs will ensure, one way or another, there are at least two possible suppliers. Personally indifferent who that is. I believe SEE is the best. Am most concerned about SEEs position in China and hope one or two competitors from there or elsewhere ensure choice in the market. If not Musk is in a good position to complain. If SEE couldn,t break Vhina and got frozen out of USA for being a monopoly, the prospects would be less good. Not saying thats happening. Just saying no harm, when navigating a world full of regulators, to have some competition.

Its unfortunate that Lombad Odiers sale of shares to Mitsubishi EM is recorded as a 159 million share disposal by an NED. The published balance sheet numbers for SEE remain dire. As a result of the latter, SRE has long been identified as a share to short by Stokopedia. I imagine some small investors have done rather well from this advice in recent times. However we know directors have been buying, not selling. And once the 2025 H1 numbers are published in mid March the balance sheet will be fine. SEE will no longer meet the Altman Z score screen criteria. So any small investors who have shorted the stock on that basis will unwind their position. The Feb KPIs will be interesting. The March H1 results will bring the published numbers for SEE into line with what we know the position to be.

A search for CES 2025 driver monitoring produces lots of results. Garmin and Inseego among many others are offering integrated systems that offer lots of services including driver monitoring. Both use snapdragon.

The announcement does not increase the number of shares in issue. It "relates to historical exercises of options, in 2018, for which applications had not been accurately accounted for". Reflects badly on the company secretary in 2018.

I have been frustrated by the auto industries focus on automated driving, in which there is no role for driver monitoring systems ( DMS). Now GM have switched focus to advanced driver assisted schemes, for which DMS is essential hope returns. In short term hope to see other western car manufacturers recognise ADAS and DMS key to sales in next decade. In longer term see at least fiur different businesses worth the current mcap spinning out of SEE. 1. Monitoring ( of truck, train, tram drivers), slow but steady growth; 2. DMS in cars, the most exciting portion in the short term; 3. Planes, dms is helping traini pilots and has potential to reduce the need for copilots ; and 4. My suspicion that DMS technology is going to go help many tasks that people and computers attempt together: the computer has to know if the person is paying attention whatever they are trying to do together. Long term but large potential. So v. content outlook for dms has improved. Will need more than one firm offering it. So content for other DMS firms to prosper.

Few days old but I missed it before.

General Motors announced on Tuesday it will end robotaxi development at its money-losing Cruise business, a blow to the ambitions of the largest US automaker to advance the technology.

GM said it would no longer fund work on self-driving robotaxis “given the considerable time and resources that would be needed to scale the business, along with an increasingly competitive robotaxi market”.

Instead, GM will prioritize developing Super Cruise, its advanced driver assistance system for personal vehicles, and Cruise will be folded into its group working on driver assistance.

Has to be good for good DMS.

I think the demand side of SEEs success has been paid too little attention. SEE is not selling to individual consumers. It is selling to OEMs, often through third parties.

I once worked in the chemical industry at a plan that produced all the STPP ( the active bit of detergents) in the UK. No one ever knew that ingredient came from Albright and Wilson in Whitehaven. They bought Persil, Sainsburys or whatever. I this case what the OEM wants to sell is not DMS but a piece of software that incorporates DMS. That incorporation has taken longer than I for one expected. So its putting together a package of which DMS is a part that has taken time. Ane was not to my recollection discussed much. So good to see the end product hitting the road today. It may still take time to be reflected in the KPIs.

Snapshot electric vehicle sales in January – September 2024 vs Jan-Sept 2023

Global: 11.5 million, +22%

China: 7.2 million, +35%

EU & EFTA & UK: 2.2 million, -4%

USA & Canada: 1.3 million, +10%

Rest of world: 0.9 million, +25%

Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said: “This record-breaking month of EV sales brings new hope to the industry. While the electrification of transport seems inevitable, the recent slowdown of sales in many parts of the world has sewn seeds of doubt which can now start to be swept aside. However, the regional disparities are astonishing, with China alone accounting for well over half the global total, meanwhile Europe’s numbers are shrinking and the US and Canada are steadily growing.” https://fleetworld.co.uk/electric-vehicles-rack-up-record-global-sales-in-september/#:~:text=Just%20over%20300%2C00%20EVs,12%25%20compared%20to%20September%202023.

It was 62,000 at last KPI. The RNS said units monitored by Caterpillar will be excluded at the next update.