Member Info for bonzoful

Thanks. Was not clear on licence revenue so accept your point. Still slack from after market. But with dip in cars on the road in last figures reported, next week's figures will be interesting. And my looked for figure will not be far behind yours.

I have had my own go at testing the liklihood of breakeven being achieved during FY 2025. They look good to me.

In FY 2023 revenue was 57m USD, ( roughly half from OEM and half from the aftermarket). The loss was 15m USD so costs 72m USD. Inflation will add say 5 per cent a year in FY 2024 and 2025: taking costs around 77m USD.

Revenue from OEMs will increasingly reflect cars on the road with Seeing Machine tech: 1.5m at Dec 2023. We need 250,000 new cars a quarter to double that by June 2005 (end 2005 FY). As the number is growing most quarters a number published next week of 220,000 or above would be fine.

Doubling royalty and licensing revenue from OEMs would be enough to get revenue above 77m USD enough to get to breakeven. In addition, the after market revenue is growing: by closer to 20 per cent a year. And Seeing Machines gets 10m USD from Collins over three years. So unless the cars on the road figure published next week is hugely disappointing breakeven in 2025 FY seems very achievable to me. DYOR.

Steady progress will do. Critical thing is to reach cash flow positive before money runs out. After that it's all upside.

The unusual thing here is that the investment is done before the contracts are signed and the cash does not follow for a year or two after that. The CFO and CEO have best sight of contracts signed and future cash flow. And both have invested their cash over the last year or two.

Easier to make good use of this page if people filtered rather than respond to infantile.

I look at the small percentage of the company I own and aim to come out of this exercise owning much the same proportion of the company. Freeing up resources for comparable investment elsewhere while retaining the same interest to any success Nanoco may have in future. My working assumption is that half the shares that could be offered for sale at 24p will be.

NGR

My understanding is Nanocos materials are going into STM sensors which are now in production. Those sensors can be bought by device manufacturers who can now start developing devices using those sensors. So a new round of product/device development for (unknown) company/ies to go through. Suggests orders this year will remain very small. With any devices using the new STM sensors unlikely to go on sale much before 2025. And those probably niche products.

Nonetheless, once published figures for Nanoco show it is nearing breakeven interest in their story is likely to pick up. With some unforeseeable trigger likely to prompt a surge at some point. Perhaps buying by a tech investment trust?

Worth bearing in mind the circular says Nanoco plan on spending £3m buying shares in the open market. That could mop up many of the shares anyone wishes to sell for less than 24p for a while.

Moreover

My recollection is the Runcorn production line was paid for by an unnamed American company, thought to be Apple, looking to buy material from Nanoco. Apple did not go ahead for reasons, we were told, that had nothing to do with Nanoco.

Dow also built a production line in Korea to produce QD under licence from Nanoco. But that was never used either.

The presentation to investors on today's announcement now on Nanocos website steers towards several years before large take up of Nanocos materials. Disappointing. Looking to see what ST Micro are doing with the sensor they have developed with quantum materials is only slightly more encouraging. https://www.imveurope.com/news/sts-quantum-dot-sensor-set-volume-swir-imaging

They are making the sensors available to their customers to evaluate. May be small take up for niche products. But again large orders appear not months but years away. All seems very familiar.

Nanonano

I think it unlikely the two new impressive NEDs would have joined the Board if they did not have confidence in the CEO. Similarly STMicroelectrics and the Asian company must have confidence in him. A change in CEO would set back business development because any new CEO would have to build their own relationships with these companies. To my mind the company should focus on landing some of the business they say is being developed. If they spend the cash they have on reorganising themselves that would suggest a lack of self confidence, I would wish them well and move on.

Thought dividend decisions for the Board not the management team. And thought the Board had changed.

Perhaps I am stuck in a rut.

In addition to delaying tax bills by 12 months paying some or all of the addition next financial year will show Nanoco as an income producing share in 2024-25. Stirring interest from new and existing buyers. Without that the settlement dividend will be offset by a reduction in the share price, perhaps a collapse if those holding for it sell up and move on.

I found 2021 stock exchange rules suggesting they expect dividends to be paid within 20 working days of the record date, usually two days after the dividend announcement. If payment is to be in the next tax year it might explain the delay. I have most of my holding inside an ISA but much outside. So paying the dividend next year would delay a substantial tax bill for me by 12 months. If some of the large shareholders are in a comparable position they may have let their feelings be known. First date they could announce a timetable on these lines is Monday!

I think it is in the 8th Feb RNS which refers to returning capital to shareholders in line with previous commitments.

As baffled as everyone else at delay in announcing the distribution to shareholders. I can't even see how commercial discussions can account for it: they could carry on and the results announced when completed. There does seem to be a lot of new stuff on the Nanoco website all marked with 2024 copyright. It conveys confidence the company sees a future. But provides no insight on the due distribution.

My recollection is ST Micro said its new sensor was going into commercial production in March. Once it is launched Nanoco may be able to say, if true, its dots are inside. Providing some reassurance of future business. At present there is little they can say about future business. Which is a problem for the share price after the capital return has occurred. Little to be gained from a quick dividend if the share price is decimated ex dividend.

When I first found this chat room the share price was 11p and I got a lot of abuse for not joining in forecasts of higher share prices within 12 months for what appeared a longer term project. I invested and have invested more as the price fell back. While the abuse switched from me and fellow realists to the Board for not delivering unrealistic expectations.

Cash is what counts. Question now is what happens when the loan to Magna becomes due. I think they will take the shares. Those less imbued in the story will fear they ask for the cash. So plenty more buying opportunities ahead. Best wishes. I believe the long term future us bright. But perhaps 12 months more depressed sharecprice and abuse on the board. Enjoy if that is your taste

Once you filter out those who abuse others this chat room becomes impossible to follow. I wish you well abusing each other.

Magna announcing start date of commercial production of their dms mirror in 2024 might be of interest to some puzzling why 2023 Q4 numbers down. Thought that blindingly obvious. But I guess it depends whose looking.

System solution fully integrates camera and electronics into the interior mirror

Driver and in-cabin occupant monitoring achieved with a single camera

Starts production in 2024 with German automaker

Magna has secured a high-volume, global award from a German automaker to bring its industry-first system solution combining its camera, electronics and interior mirror technology to the market starting in 2024.

https://www.magna.com/company/newsroom/releases-archive/release/2022/02/07/news-release---magna-lands-industry-first-award-for-integrated-driver-and-occupant-monitoring-system