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A clairvoyant who foresaw Putins war increasing energy and food prices, making it even more difficult to contain inflation, might have forseen how far companies not producing free cash flow have fallen out of favour. None of them on the board. And they would probably not have been listened to anyway.
Once Seeing Machines gets to breakeven it will become a cash cow. Sadly analysts seem to anticipate this will take to 2025. The share price is likely to remain depressed until then. I shall, if I need, sell a few per cent a year in lieu of dividend. And expect a handsome return on the rest post breakeven: whenever it is.
In this climate I don't expect announcements promising cash flow in 2-10 years time to have much impact on the share price.
Asked about takeover says determined to remain independent until value realised whether that 2, 3 or 4 years he doesn't know. I think we are in for three years of extraordinary rise in share price with a takeover after that.
Good to see the tide has turned. The introduction of quarterly monitoring figures, the RFSs already won and to be won, fleet, aviation, rising revenues and falling costs all bode well. A very good share to be in.
One of the things I learned from the presentation is that when Qualcomm sell their software to car manufacturers it does not have SEE inside it. But SEE can slot in effortlessly. Lots to do before regulations come in. So ready made solutions will be attractive. Buy a magma mirror with SEE embedded and it will be compatible with an infotainment system bought from Qualcomm.
Paul said, at different points, costs had peaked, revenues were growing 26% a year and breakeven expected in (FY) 24. There is no need to raise any more money. Quarterly monitoring data will be published from end October.
Good explanation of the business. Several RFQs to be awarded probably by end of year but out of his control. Three year lag between winning and revenues.
I did not hear anything I expect to move the share price up before market recovery or 2024 whichever comes first. But will be a great share to own then.
Have learnt a lot from this board. But attracted a lot of negative comment at the start of the year from having the temerity to suggest the share price would be (only!) 15p at the end of it. More focussed on cash flow than some. Those concerns largely taken care of by todays RNS. Will be listening tomorrow for clues as to when SEE will turn profitable. 2024-5? Whenever cash coming in exceeds cash going out the share price will fly. And even a cash focussed sceptic like me does not think that more than 24 months off now. So I bought more today.
STMicroelectronics refer to dual imaging combining infra red with HDR colour sensing. So not surprised claimed efficiency half that of QD sensors. DMS driven by need to meet regulatory requirements. So a little more reassuring than discretionary consumer purchases in the current climate.
StMicroelectronics promoting a new sensor for DMS and passenger monitoring https://www.engineersgarage.com/stmicroelectronics-offers-new-hybrid-sensor-for-full-interior-vehicle-monitoring/
I am with those who see Gilstrips decision to prioritise another case as a sign some deal between Nanoco and Samsung may be under discussion. Strikes me that in those discussions the interests of the unknown fund financing Nanocos lawyers are crucial. They need to recover all the legal costs incurred on Nanoco's behalf with a hefty premium ( say 2 or 3 times their costs) to cover the costs of less successful cases and make a return for their managers and investors. They would surely have included terms in their small print ensuring they could accept such a settlement if availabke rathervthan risk a jury trial. I have no idea what their costs would be. If £100m, they may be looking for £300 million from a settlement. In which case Nanoco would get at least as much.
For their part Nanoco will surely have insisted any settlement covers future licence fees worldwide. In which case Nanoco/we end up with a lump sum and a viable business. But maybe not the highest lump sums dreamt of.
As long as I continue to trust SEE management I will be happy to leave the managing of the business to them. But I would like to know:
(a) will SEE be providing a steer on future revenues this year; and
(b) will they be providing a steer on the future costs needed to support those revenues.
I have assumed the revenues, and profits, will begin to rise sharply soon. I shall listen out for guidance on those future cash flows.
This has for many years been an excellent board. It is frustrating to me that so many get sucked into exchanges with BeingtheBanker/NigWitt etc who told us he overcommitted then sold out around 15p. And has since poured cold water on good news. And appeared to enjoy the attention he gets for doing so. I filter him but learn his views from the responses he gets. Just filter him. Or the board will be of decreasing value. Possibly inevitable if we win and the day traders swamp the board. So my thanks to all those who provided so much useful research over the years. I think it's 15 years for me. And the story is just getting interesting.
Sammy
I reckon the lawyers and financiers will be in the driving seat when it comes to a possible out of court settlement. I have no problem with that. They will want to recover their costs plus a healthy premium to cover the costs of less successful cases taken on pro bono. Nanoco will want to ensure the future, as well as the past, of Samsung payments to them is sorted.
My hopes rest on the cash flow. Uncertain when it will turn positive (2024-25 maybe?) but should have a better idea once promised cash flow forecasts produced at the end of the year. At that point SEE will offer growing profits and a wide moat. Continuing to pick stock up as and when I can. May not reach the 15p by December I expected but confident it will do in the following year or two.
My guess is the selling of SEE is by institutions offering unit trusts in small companies which unit holders are now selling forcing the institutions to sell investments
so as to pay withdrawals. Our CEO held out the prospect of providing financial forecasts at the end of this year. So a good time to switch funds into SEE.
I tend to agree with Nanonano. But am focused on both. Either a win/settlement with Samsung or the commercial contract expwcted by the end of the year will transform the share price. Both seem more likely than not. So I plan not to sell any Nanoco shares until the outcome of both events is known.
Should Nanoco emerge from 2022 profitable and with a healthy balance sheet it will begin to be of interest to a broader range of institutional investors who will have internal bureaucratic processes to go through before buying. So I see no rush to sell.