Member Info for bonker99

Nice cancelled £6.3k sell at 0.38p from yesterday ;)

$4.5k then a reset of sorts followed by $7k/$10k.

"Q4" I think - not that I'm bothered - Gold will be at my $3.9k+ target by then :)

Morning.

I'm pencilling in c80p for the DFS so low 30s looks like Position A to punt in IMO.

Gold @ $3,770 so it looks like we'll see my $25 shout - my Gold target for this leg was c$3.9k so that feels about right.

Gold @ $3,770

Interesting development given we already have Japanese partners and undeveloped Rutile resources:

"Japan’s $7B bet on African infrastructure could put Malawi’s Kasiya mine at the centre of global mineral supply chains"

https://x.com/bonker99/status/1970408326971433249

I don't disagree - that's my initial target here hit but I'll stick around I think given how Gold is continuing to move.

As TA works in quarters, being down to precisely one quarter of a prior, notable number is exactly where I tend to get very interested, regardless of the instrument.

Disappointed that you can't attack my NPV10 calculation though mate - I guess there's a reason for that.

I've reworked the 2021 PEA/Scoping Study's numbers.

I get a c35% uplift in revenue from the PEA using today's Copper and Gold prices - a cool $1.35b.

The PEA, broadly speaking, had Zinc & Lead at c50% of revenue and Copper and Gold at c50% of revenue.

That has now shifted to 60/40 in Copper and Gold's favour as Zinc and Lead are broadly flat these past years so this is becoming more of a favoured EV/ESG & Gold play (like ARV/SOLG et al) than a base metals play as each day goes by.

Upping the 2021 PEA's 20% corporation tax to today's 25% I derive a POST-TAX NPV10 of some $240m compared to the PEA's PRE-TAX NPV10 of $120m.

Easy math from there then.

The prior £14m mcap firesale target, even at just PEA/PFS stage is now c£28m - at DFS stage it doubles again to c£56m.

£56m / 484m shares?

11.5p

2021's peak print?

10.75p

2021's Peak close?

8.88p

They know.

I'm gonna have to get my abacus back out.

Fk me - if the majors are anything to go by then juniors like this are in for the real 10x+ treatment going into 2026 ...

I still like 11p here - I shlt you not.

£1.7m mcap .....................

It's his incongruous self aggrandaising coupled with posting on a bb for a living that I like the most ;)

Just to be clear - the "billion pounds required to mine the resource" as claimed by the local muppet is, in reality, $99 pre-mining CAPEX and a total of $176m (inc the $99m) CAPEX over the 12-year LoM.

Afternoon all.

I see the resident, deramping big buyer still thinks people cannot read for themselves - from the 2021 PEA scoping:

"Three-year trailing metal prices were used in the financial evaluation. These were

determined to the end of the September 2020 quarter and amounted to US$1.20 per pound for

zinc, US$2.81 per pound for copper, US$0.95 per pound for lead, US$16.67 per ounce for

silver and US$1,459 per ounce for gold. A fixed exchange rate of £1.00 = US$1.25 was used.

The LOM project operating and cash flow for each case is summarised in Table 1.5.

In summary, the most attractive option is Case C. Including some US$99 million of

pre-production capital expenditure this shows a total cash operating surplus over the 12-year

mine life of more than US$510 million, which translates to a Net Present Value discounted at

10% pa of over US$120 million with an IRR of 26%."

So, in short and even using the PEA numbers that don't get close to the current price of copper, gold and silver, option C (the most likely/biggest option) yields a firesale value of c£14m which at current issue is just under 3p - i.e. the usual 10x from c0.30p.

I'll get around to modelling an updated NPV based on current copper and Gold prices if I can but suffice to say that the bottom is either in or bloody close to it now IMO.

They can place (massively) at 1p to push this forward at any moment of course once they've printed the bottom print and that may well have been this morning for all I know.

Good post on AAU/Ariana board - very relevant to here too:

"However, the ounces are sliced and diced, the Alamos sale is a timely reminder that premium prices are being paid for quality undeveloped ounces, including in Turkey which is not often high on the radar of Australian investors."

There's a hell of a lot priced in up here but it won't stop going up if Gold and Silver don't stop going up ...

At a glance - those numbers clearly imply a 10x (£c40m mcap) from here at PFS stage.

Morning.

Gold @ $3,722 - remember what I said about the size of NPV increase per $100 of Gold price ......