RE: down again24 Mar 2019 11:31
Aye up Dicky :)
Yup, the cupboard is bare and they won't refill it until the price rises significantly, which it will of course.
Some tough calls on commods at the mo. I'm in no doubt that a long planned and long term devaluation of the Dollar to boost inflation will be a rising tide for all commods going forward but in the shorter term there's some tough shouts to make.
I'm very overweight on Silver & Gold (FRES/HOC/others) right now but really like the Nickel & Copper stories too. I'm currently betting that artificially boosted inflation (the real CPI numbers are already way higher than are published of course as most people's bank balance shows over the last ten years) to/above interest rates will see an awful lot of money move into PMs over the coming months/years and Basel3 kicking in on Friday March 29th does nothing but reinforce that view with physical Gold being given direct parity with cash/govt bonds by central bankers.
The major issue with Nickel & Copper of course is recession concerns. I suspect we're probably 90% going to be in recession by the end of the year and for heavily industrial metals like Nickel & Copper that has to be a concern, even though the supply/demand story over the longer term looks exceptional.
As for this play, it's obviously very attractive if you like big Nickel and just because the above headwinds may play a major role, it doesn't mean it can't move substantially to the upside this year but the next six months, at least, on all plays like these (and everything else actually!) is going to be "interesting" to say the least imo.
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