Member Info for bonker99

Hey :)

96 recently and around the same some time ago IIRC - big Gold & Silver mining plays are 70% of my buys this year.

$1,338 just tapped so, yeah, it's looking pretty good - likely get a bit of a retrace from here perhaps but no matter, the flag has well and truly dropped for Gold & Silver IMO.

That's the way to do it :)

Morning.

50% Gold / 36% Silver / 14% Zinc & Lead is the revenue breakdown here.

Yes a great move by Gold this morning but we've gotta expect some sideways/down action as part of the broader uplift so sit on your hands IMO and wait it out.

I think July more likely than June for a rate cut but we'll see :)

Job numbers on Friday (which will be the usual BS of course) may well dictate the immediate-term play.

There are some decent looking PMI numbers dropping today BTW.

Hey.

No deal US<>China - not going to happen - it's a war of attrition.

What will happen is a race to the currencies bottom with booming inflation and, yes, Gold is only going one way from hereabouts IMO, give or take the usal bouncing around.

If we don't technically hit a recession next year it will only be because all the numbers have been bent upwards by that inflation. In real terms at least, a recession in 2020 is all but nailed-on.

That's next year though - in the meantime .........

Dollar still being hit today - I don't expect it to catch a bid ahead of DXY @ 75-80 which will float all commods boats.

Morning - judging by the current moves whatever is coming won't be far away.

Morning - looking good.

June rate cut being dialed in but won't necessarily happen of course but I think it may in July.

Anything up to $1,360 from here is doable ahead of that IMO.

Morning - looking good.

June rate but being dialed in but won't necessarily happen of course but I think it may in July.

Anything up to $1,360 from here is doable ahead of that IMO.

Morning.

Copper and Silver are related as both are inversely correlated with the Dollar like all commodities but both can be affected by industrial up/downturns in a way that gold isn't.

Silver is obviously looking to be in "breakout" mode and Copper has had a bit of a bounce these past few days so perhaps there's a decent lift coming. That said, I still think we'll be in recession next year but there's plenty of money to be made between now and then with a Dollar kill over the next 6-9 months.

The really big shout for Copper though is the US $2T infrastructure plan - if they can get it done - which will likely send industrials flying, for a while at least, with Copper in full supply/demand deficit by 2020 and if they fund it via MMT (I think they will - they want/need inflation) then that may also help destroy the Dollar so all in all, a big commods boom for a year from here is a decent shout right now IMO and big miners will hopefully get the leverage effect from that early doors.

A return to 1k here looks a decent shout IMO but keep an eye on the commods prices of course.

Eyes down peeps :)

Fed jawboning at 14:45:

https://www.chicagofed.org/conference

- Eurozone CPI Estimate (Y/Y) May: 1.2% (est 1.3%, prev 1.7%)
- Eurozone CPI Core (Y/Y) May: 0.8% (est 0.9%, prev 1.3%)

Whatever day you're having, it's gotta be better than Neil Woodford who appears to be on the ropes.

It's the Fed's two top boys so their words will carry some weight - presumably this afternoon/after close here.

Given the very rapid sell-off in the Dollar I'd suggest the market are pricing in a June cut already - Barclays called for three cuts in 2019 a couple of days ago so they've effectively called the bottom for Gold :)

As ever, everyone is reverse/talking their own book so you can never be sure but July is firming up significantly for a cut now and once they start cutting they won't stop - the general Fed MO is to raise slowly but cut deeply once they start.

The added significance to a cut of course is that it signals that Trump's "greatest economy ever" is actually on the ropes - whatever BS they come up with in the US, they can't deny what's going on everywhere else in the world and that WILL effect them eventually.

Time will tell but I still maintain that over the longer-term at least, the only way they can "fix" this is via the printing machine and they're going to need really low rates to drop another $2T of MMT debt ...

Morning.

Fed jawboning later today so look out for that.

Nice start to the day - $1,329 / $14.8 / DXY being trashed yet again.

Rate cut being pulled forward even more rapidly than even I'd expected - maybe even just a fortnight away.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1135642417296740353

Whenever it comes, it won't be the last ...

Rate cut being pulled forward even more rapidly than even I'd expected - maybe even just a fortnight away.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1135642417296740353

Whenever it comes, it won't be the last ...

Fed rate odds going loco: CME Fed funds futures pricing 97% chance of Fed cutting rates in Dec vs 77% last week.80% chance of rates being cut twice or more by end-2019 vs 70% prior.53% chance of Jul cut vs 18% prior. $USD

Fed rate odds going loco: CME Fed funds futures pricing 97% chance of Fed cutting rates in Dec vs 77% last week.80% chance of rates being cut twice or more by end-2019 vs 70% prior.53% chance of Jul cut vs 18% prior. $USD

New highs for Gold & Silver on the back of just-dropped US manufacturing numbers - could get a blow-off top IMO.