RE: Gold Going Up - AISC Going down8 May 2021 21:09
Evening .
As shown on my chart, they put gold into a perfect Bull Flag pattern that ends, shock, horror, at the end of June. I chart weeklies for a nice balance of detail vs noise and generally swing trade over 3-4 month periods.
Breakout, however you define it, will occur with any kind of green week next week against a sharply falling resistance line between now and then so it may be reasonable to expect they'll hammer her down next week but trust me, if they don't/can't knock her down on Sunday night then every algo on the planet will be hitting every gold/silver miner real hard from monday.
Some finer detail - they baked in some short-term resistance at an even $1,800 recently so it would be reasonable to think that a fake-out drop test of that as new support may well occur in the short-term. I can't know or promise that they won't break it but they're likely to try all sorts ahead of the end of June you would think. The flipside to that is these guys need to pull in so much real metal ahead of the end of June that they may well have to spike the price upwards ahead of then to try and find some sellers. As per, only time will tell.
I have c$2,350, other than last year's $2k top, as an intermediate target and we may see that before year end. Beyond there, c$2,700/c$3k (I don't know which one yet until I see more chart data) but the ultimate, and it's coming for sure, is $4,500 - that may be a couple of years away of course which is my minimum timeline for this cycle to set a blow-off top at some point. I can "prove" further targets beyond there technically speaking but there's no point at the stage of course so that will do for now.
As for Hum - thanks for probably making a better job of explaining the possible value proposition here than I did the other day re how their profit per ounce may very well multiply via lowered costs and/or an increased gold price when compared to some/most other miners. The results would have to be pretty terrible to drop her in this environment I think and we've now beaten the 22p I pointed out a few weeks ago with massive buying on Friday so I'm pretty sure we're good now.
The overarching theme to bear in mind, however, is that having been in the game for long enough now, and being somewhat of a pattern spotting savant, it's not lost on me that every time we have a cycle like this, the miners are throwing out tales of woe left, right and centre which destroys the share price:
HUM - high costs/production issues
HOC - election issues
CEY - collapsing walls (followed by director buys at a quid lol)
PUR - low head grades at start of production (followed by huge director buys last week but at least those guys had the good grace to buy at 89p, not last week's bottom @ c72p!)
I've seen it all before and of course, most miners are 9-bob notes, it just is what it is, you've gotta make your own read of the likely reality :)
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