Member Info for bonker99

I cannot chart Gold that high until this time next year but that's not to say that it can't go to $1,920-$1,960 anytime from now ahead of that.

They've got to cycle trillions out of comedy valued indices and into this sector without boosting the prices too much in the process which is precisely the action you're seeing right here and now.

Again, you saw what they did to HOC the other day to "facilitate" that entry, this is how it will be IMO for the next few months so take advantage of it.

That, I have no doubt, is the plan - it also shrinks the debt in relative terms ...

3-5 years of this to come IMO - I like a top of cycle around 2026 ($7k Gold?) - a key timeline for all things Green Energy and whatnot.

I think we can reasonably expect the BS CPI number to be c7% in 2022 when those input costs feed through to new stock.

I've read, however, that the BS GDP number(s) are actually made from epic channel stuffing - the final sales numbers are even for the year, i.e. with a backdrop of c14% real-world inflation you're talking about a massive recession already in play as you would expect and I expect discretionary spend to be routed in/by Q2.

The BBBBBRRRRRR (and YCC) coming into play next year - my guess is H2 ahead of the US mid-terms (where I expect the Dems to be thoroughly trounced and lose both the House & the Senate) - will outprint all prior printing records and that, IMO, is when we see Gold skyrocket to/wards $3k and beyond.

All very nice if you've just laid out new reserves/DFS across 3x new/extended LoM Gold mines at the end of Q2 of course ...

Blimey - check this out:

Spain's producer price inflation rose to an all-time high of 31.9%, yoy, for the month of October 2021.

Those are real numbers, not the nonsense CPI etc we have to endure from The BoE/Fed.

4m+ taken at 16.50p+ recently - now it's up to the plebs to scrap amongst themselves for what's left ahead of Spring 2022.

I expect much nonsense on here during that period :)

GL

Oversold on the daily RSI to boot I should add.

Very nice long-term trend lines at mid-upper 6s going back to Summer 2020 here - nice triangulation on offer from there/here to what I would expect to be a breakout to upper teens in Q2.

Yup.

This is well worth a look at upper 6s.

I don't need to convince you my friend - do feel free to sell up if you don't like it but the way I've described this is indeed the way it is.

Re 2021's drill campaign results I've dug into the detail, as deep as the 5th bullet point at the top of the RNS this morning:

"These reported reserves for both Yanfolila and Kouroussa have upside potential as they do not include the 2021 drilling campaign of ~68,000 metres ("m") (~44,000 m at Yanfolila and ~24,000 m at Kouroussa). The results of this year's drilling campaign will be included in the 2022 updated Company Resource and Reserve statements, scheduled to be released in Q2 2022"

Given that this campaign has only just completed, I'm sure you understand (hopefully ...) that you don't just pull the drill out of the ground and immediately get your calculator out and work out there and then what the impact on resources or reserves is.

That takes heavy analysis, money and time to do - especially booking reserves which requires a detailed mine plan to show how you will get what's in the ground out to convert in-the-ground resources to costed reserves.

That latter stage is why it's not usually a good idea to value assets on what's in the ground - you have to show how you get it out and what the costs/profits are - that's how you arrive at a DFS and a +-10% accuracy NPV valuation.

Typical costs for PFS > DFS stage?

£10m - there's a lot to it and, thankfully, we don't have to shoulder any of that cost for Dugbe as Pasofino have shouldered that burden.

I'm not sure how good you want it - other than trying to talk a few more hapless PIs out of their shares at mid-teens but GL with that ;)

That's a question for when the SP/mcap reflects the assets they have based on industry standard PFS/DFS asset NPV valuations.

Until then, it matters not how production goes - I've just valued this with £0.00 attributed to Yanfolila and its future cash build.

BTW, they've just fully funded massive drill campaigns via Yanfolila profits which has put us in this lovely position of high quality, expanded/extended, asset ownership in multiple jurisdictions.

This is how you grow - there really aren't many 100k pa producers out there going to 300k+ pa within a few years with all the hard work done and bills paid to allow that to happen.

Re valuation of projects to industry standard metrics - yes, I have based on the published NPVs of Kouroussa at DFS plus Dugbe at PFS/DFS.

As of right now and at c$1,775 Gold (taking the average Gold price number of each mine's PFS/DFS which are $1,750 and $1,800) as purely an on-paper valuation:

Kouroussa is worth c£50m

51% of Dugbe at the current PFS stage is worth c£50m

51% of Dugbe at the Q2 DFS stage will be worth c£100m

These are base case valuations of course against what looks like a reliable floor for the Gold price at c$1,775 from here.

The valuations, as you would expect, spiral upwards dramatically with Gold at a higher price. They also don't take into account the benefit of this year's drill campaign(s) or factor in anything at all for either cash on hand or Yanfolila assets/future production profits.

In short, and assuming Gold doesn't collapse ahead of Q2, which seems to unlikely to say the least, if you completely disregard Yanfolila/cash and only price in Kouroussa and Dugbe then by the Q2 Dugbe DFS the base valuation of this company's assets, in the absence of meaningful liabilities, is 38p.

And then there's the upside to come after that via a stronger Gold price and cash build from Yanfolila.

Hard to believe while it's down here - rather conveniently for some no doubt - but those are the numbers and I challenge anyone to show me that I'm wrong. Given that nobody has these last few months then I take it that I'm not wrong and that's why nobody is challenging these numbers because they know I'm right and they know where this is heading.

I think you have to recognise that most of the noise on boards like this is generated by pros pumping forward-sold placings etc.

There's no need for that here so it feels like tumbleweeds but you also have to recognise that when there's value like this on the table, the last thing those guys want to do is draw attention to it but the broader market will resolve this disconnect over the next 3-6 months - that's guaranteed.

Depends on the price of Gold of course.

At the current $1,800 Gold price this is obviously already worth multiples of the current mcap and I note that these reserve updates are based on a $1,500 Gold price in terms of economic viability.

Fast forward the tape to my suggested 12 month target of $2,400 for Gold and the forward-read on production profits from three mines turning out 300k+ oz pa at anything like $1k profit per oz and the current mcap is unbelievable given what could be a billion quid+ in FCF thrown off.

You've just gotta wait it out - it's got 10x written all over it IMO.

Do note, as mentioned below, that we don't get the results of 2021's huge drill campaign(s) until Q2 where we can reasonably expect the size of the mines to increase in value significantly again.

Such a 9-bob note - always has been :)

Hope you all got in/toped-up on the manufactured drop :)

Morning.

Nice to see that news drop - still going through the numbers right now - implication of +2 years added to Yanfolila LoM at first glance?

That's a big un.

Looks like you've got some catching up to do :)

BTW - the answer to your question is this:

Time.

Personal Income 0.5%, Exp. 0.2%
Personal Spending 1.3%, Exp. 1.0%

PCE 5.9%, Exp. 5.7%
Core PCE 4.5%, Exp. 4.5%

"Full employment" yet GDP nosediving in real terms

No growth possible

Stagflation the only path forward

BBBRRRYYYCCCBBBRRR is the future