RE: Tweet12 Aug 2022 13:37
@ BillyBoy
I think 2m oz @ 7 g/t should be an enormous cashcow over the next five years+.
"Should be" but clearly hasn't been so far via whatever TF has been going on here for the last 18 months.
That said, the SP is a 20-25x from the top where the market will have been eyeing a billion quid FCF throw-off return from the phenomenally high grades here - once they've got their sh*t together of course.
All other things being equal, 2m oz @ 7 g /t should be treated/valued as 10m oz @ 1.5 g/t, i.e. it's a massive amount of Gold overall but with the benefit of a huge/quick return on capital deployed because the grades are so high and the AISC SHOULD be really low.
I'm saying "should" a lot here of course and that's the conundrum - have they fixed it? Is the new MRE way more in-line with the reality under the ground now they've had a year or so at it?
We'd all like an updated AISC/NPV (coming in Q4 presumably) to crunch the numbers on more accurately than the current finger in the air job but at £50m mcap this is an awful lot of extraordinarily concentrated Gold and a 10x to get it halfway back to the top certainly can't be ruled out?
They're obviously not going to get a third chance here but at this price/timing I'm willing to give them a second chance - they must surely know a hell of a lot more about what they're doing by now and the new MRE re-confirms that the Gold is there.