Hannam & Partners - Page 814 May 2020 13:26
A clear target for Newcrest to consolidate 100% ownership
In our view, given the outstanding nature of the resource and its proximity to the
Telfer mine it makes sense for Newcrest to consolidate 100% of Havieron, as the fully
operating Telfer plant is nearing a time when it will need additional feedstock. We
would expect these conversations to be able to start relatively soon as sufficient
drilling has now been done to give both parties a good sense of the size and quality of
the resource. This will become even more the case once a technical study signed off by
an independent third party outlines a life of mine schedule and its corresponding
NPV.
Currently Greatland Gold are in a strong negotiating position, as they should be able
to easily raise their share of funds required to pay for the capital costs to bring
Havieron into production and therefore avoid further dilution of their holding. This
makes the case for Newcrest to take its ownership to 100% even more compelling.
Greatland’s current market cap is £319m or US$390m, which is more than 10 times
our estimate of Greatland’s share of capital costs for Havieron of US$33.9m. We
therefore expect in the future any acquisition of Greatland’s share in Havieron to be
on attractive terms for Greatland shareholders.