Member Info for Bolgas

So, oil and gas prices rise and fall based on trades placed by PI's, II's etc. If I understand correctly a minority are suggesting a CPR with a NPV of say $3 billion (personal estimate) a company with a market cap sub £200 million those investors would react negatively to this news.

Add in potential national importance this project potentially provides to both Morocco and Europe the impact most likely a spike with a fall back to mid teens, 16/17p that is slightly lower than bid offered today.

Interesting theory, plausible but unlikely IMO.

Nordell - Weekly chart that's a wave 3 in progress, again IMO

Jimmy - Excellent research, thank you for taking the time to share, much appreciated.

Nordell, this is where I would expect II's to be loading up, take all the traders shares out of the equation and take price up to fill their orders. Once complete let share price settle before expected news then watch share price rocket to new highs as transformational news is announced.

Although that sounds like madness, in market terms it is maximising returns.

Morning all, not quite sure what the relevance of this conversation is, back then sentiment with oil investments was high which then charged as the green agenda gathered pace and oil prices declined, many deciding oil and gas investments no longer fitted with their investment ethos.

Liquidity within the market was also different, many factors. What we have today though is sentiment within the oil and gas sectors has returned, here we have a gas and renewables play that didn't exist back then, sentiment following higher gas prices and what is going on with Russia has put commodities firmly into play and the right sector for short/medium term gains.

Simply put Chariot are in the right sectors with heavy news period upon us, right time right place. Hopefully stars align again and we can initially target closing that gap around ~80p doesn't look unreasonable from here. Good luck holders.

Chart hasn't altered since the 35p placing, bemused as to why you'd suggest 80p is a long way off. You have already witnessed how fast share prices can rise and fall.

Looks to me a fairly good risk vs reward from this level, one large contract and those warrants are in play, that is my view and reason for holding. I do not however wish to clog up the board daily forcing my long agenda, likewise I suggest those with a conflicting view and zero financial interest do similar.

Merry Christmas all, enjoy and relax.

Evening all,

Just looking over this one, can anyone tell me what the revenues for the business are? I can't find any.

Also with assets according to last set of accounts at below zero, no income and projected loss making of near on £6 million for the next trading year, why is this valued at £33 million today? With losses for this year and projected for next it is highly likely they will be coming back to market fairly soon with the begging bowl, right?

Many thanks for anyone who can shed light on above.

HarChris, your figures are far too simplistic, if you go back to the 2019 accounts and look at the figures presented within you will find that at $49kgV prices and a higher rand/dollar conversion we have today the company would not be making profits.

You also have costs for the year, some $6 million plus for CLN repayment and $26.8 million for capital expenditure for 2021 of which as at date of accounts they'd only spent $8.6 million. Putting that in simple terms they have expenses this half year of around $25 million or just over $4 million per month.

Company is loss making today and needs much higher V prices for a potential breakeven. Things stay as they are this company will need more financing before year end IMO.

Hi Halespur - Firstly there's no $8 million profit, that was an assumption based on 2019's production etc, that was 500mtV higher then anticipated for 2021, what actually transpires come year end will have many variants. It does appear though that Vanchem is a liability today and even with higher V price based on those calculations. Vametco having reduced production estimates again, based on those 2019 account would have reduced 2019's income by $24.5 million to put things into prospective.

The estimate comparison is only to show it is highly unlikely BMN is profitable or near profitability given today's metrics on V prices, currency exchange, lower production, higher operating costs, repayment of CLN and monies to be spent on refurbishment etc.

The sale of assets etc are one-offs and not something that IMO you would want take into consideration when assessing a companies ability to meet liabilities and continue as a going concern, however each to our own of course. I am merely pointing out in response to Pbub that we can take a good guesstimate that currently and most likely for the foreseeable the company is not generating free cashflows as many suggest.

As for VRFB contracts etc sure that would be transformational for a business that so far has sold nothing, does not have a working model as a demonstration and does not have the financial capability to build without coming to market, or at least a very supportive bank. However given the precarious position the company is in and recent CLN financing we can reasonably assume bank finance is not a real option. Likewise one might assume that given BMN's lack of expertise offering such a large contract would be irresponsible and a high risk strategy for the SA government.

That said it is my opinion and I'm aware many here are much more researched then I in this regard.

Nobody knows for sure until accounts arrive Pdub that I agree, however we can make a few assumptions on information we do have, for example we have 2019 accounts that are based on $49kgV and exchange rate of 14.4, both higher than actual price today.

If we work out the additional cost per kgV between the 2 dates it's roughly $6kgV - Based on 2019 production 2931 mtV and adding the additional costs the end results in 2019 would have been a profit before tax of around $8 million. All rough calculations of course.

We can therefore clearly see that based on those figure Vanchem is highly unlikely to turn a profit until much higher prices and it's unlikely given the operational costs and repayment of CLN that Vametco reduced production this year coupled with lower V prices will produce any profit.

Apologies for the rushed post, hope that makes sense and you can understand, I know Alpha will struggle so perhaps he can ask a few in that other group rather then daydream about a billion dollar resource all dug up and ready to sell LOL.

Pdub - Much has changed since that interview, production costs have gone from an estimated 245-260kgV a couple years back, now estimated at nearly double 434-444kgV, prices quoted in rand. Put that into prospective based on 444kgV and an dollar exchange rate of 12 the costs are $37kgV !!

Look at exchange rates and how these have benefited company during low vanadium prices, as we look forward you can expect a lower Rand and potentially higher V price, neither is assured of course. What we do know based on today's prices the business is loss making and failing every step of the way in expanding production and stopping costs that appear to be spiralling out of control.

This is no sure bet as you and other appear make out, it's a high risk bet against an assumption V prices rise and exchange rates do not fall far enough to eat up those additional revenues, to put that into context it's roughly $3 extra on V price need for each rand we lose against the dollar.

Personally I can see the rand continuing to gain traction against the USD with a huge question mark over Vanadium prices into year end, Covid is beginning to rear it's head again and who knows what capacity the Chinese may bring online over to compensate.

Folks should be aware of risks, it's unlikely even with a rise in V rates this year the company will make a profit, prices remain within this range it is possible the company may need raise more capital.

Forget your VRFB, if the mining side isn't sorted there's little to wet the appetite of any investor short or long term, IMO.

Rally maybe short lived, it looks like we are seeing a correctional move in play, I would expect the Dollar/Rand to continue rising up to 15 ish level before commencing a move back down toward 11.5 which would be an area of strong support. Basing your investment case on an exchange rate is ill-advised IMO.

Just for balance, of course it is an opinion and nobody can forecast where markets are heading, be it shares, forex commodities etc.

Not a lot changed on this board, still the hostile place it has always been and I note the usual suspects are again provoking other boards for whatever reason.

Accounts are a car crash, company is riddled with debt and by own admission they will need convert some of that debt into shares later this year. There's further monies to be spent over the coming 6 months at a rate of $3 million per month so the higher Vanadium prices are essential for that to be carried out and paid for going by cash balances. Further it's more than likely company will need spend at a rate of $15 million per annum to maintain ageing equipment (my opinion), all fairly standard but never mentioned, or understood by those clappy cheerleaders.

Talk of net asset value is nonsense, the main asset was bought well below NAV as long term holders are fully aware, quite how you value this today is however a tricky one, clearly issues with production and Q2 sounds like another piece of bad news stored up for near future, it does though have a very green angle with the energy storage. Personally I see it valued based on it's mining ability right now, huge losses last year and based on current V prices perhaps breakeven at best come year end.

If V prices rise it could transform the outlook, if they stay static company lives to fight on, fall and they're in trouble. Last spike on V was due to Chinese mines winter closure in china and steel standards, this time around it's steel demand globally that I'm not so sure has the same vibes, it is though early days and signs so far are very encouraging.

IMO it's a binary bet against Vanadium prices short term, if they pull off some VRFB it could swing things although given focus on reduced production estimates I can't see that being a huge factor until house is in order.

Good luck whatever you are, name of the game is to make money not create a dream.

Retireby40 - I read the RNS reports but can find only two trading update for 2020 both issued during Q1. Unless I am missing RNS's that only you have access then I assume you are really *****ing about a year end update that was included at capital raise?

Company have repeated year end figure in line with expectations, so that's a minimum. We also had an update, albeit via a webcast, confirming business with Tier 1 partners on track, contract renewal with Tencent under negotiation and we have just passed the end of Q1 by some 4 trading days without an update.

I understand there's frustration the share price hasn't risen but to suggest the company are not communicating is a figment of your own imagination.

Sounds to me Rowen was answering a couple questions at same time, I believe he thought he was answering when the Coalswitch would be in production, not when the first order will be delivered as that has already been confirmed to market as per order RNS -

"Active Energy will be supplying up to 900 tonnes of biomass feedstock from its Lumberton site for delivery by no later than 14th June 2021."

Based on 2 shifts per day it's slightly less than 20 days work on 16 hours daily, 3 tonnes per hour. Plant to be commissioned end of April, production in May should be more then sufficient to cover our initial order.

An assured presentation from both CEO and CFO I thought, particularly impressed with our CFO adding finer detail to a response regarding enquiries since Biden being elected, companies are contacting AEG to discuss how they can dispose of their waste product, say lumber business waste, as they will need deal with this under new regulations.

Coalswitch plant commissioned by month end with two shifts being worked in conjunction with lumber business ensuring our first order is processed and delivered on schedule.

Plenty of interest from countries across the globe, likes of Europe, Russia, South America amongst several others, clearly they have plenty of warm leads to follow up.

Get share price to 3.5p by end of summer I may send Rowen a new fleece out of my winnings.

What a waste of time that video is, biggest clue of what was to follow when presenter stated it's all for entertainment purposes at start, although there certainly was a lot of entertainment as I nearly spat my tea out when he said he'd invested £250, lot of effort for nothing!

So getting onto the subject matter, a wastewater licence that AEG are purportedly being sued for by a nonprofit organisation to protect rivers for fishing, not some government department that some are mislead to believe. All this from an individual who has a clear mandate of spreading fear even though AEG have now achieved the appropriate permits, seems some will not admit defeat and move on.

If we look at the actual permit granted by government official department below on the last page it states "Wastewater Treatment Plan exemption regulation 2Q.0102 (g)(6) which you can also read in the last link below, needless to say AEG have been granted the correct permit by the government body, they do not require a permit from a non profit organisation in the interest of fishing -

https://files.nc.gov/ncdeq/Air%20Quality/permits/2020_public_notice_documents/draft-reviews/Active-Energy-Permit-7800242.pdf

https://files.nc.gov/ncdeq/Air%20Quality/rules/rules/15a%20ncac%2002q%20.0102.pdf

NCDENR (The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality) state below all included within the air permit -

"'Active Energy Renewable Power says it will produce “black” wood pellets by pressurizing chipped wood with steam. Water used in the process would go to the plant’s wastewater treatment facility before being discharged into the Cape Fear River.

That part of the process requires no permit. "

Looking forward to the update on 6th April, everyday we get closer to a working plant and first commercial production of CoalSwitch, a global game-changer in today's green environment!

Post now showing, clearly a computer glitch.

All good news heading into weekend, can't help feel this one is so far under the radar when news lands there's going to be a mad dash for shares.

Have a good weekend all.

On their twitter page, appears somebody isn't so keen it being shared -

https://twitter.com/GplcAe/status/1370268704840282112

The reactors are on the move! A hugely important part of the #CoalSwitch plant is being installed at #Lumberton… have a look on our website to see the full design of the plant and what it will look like once complete:

https://www.aegplc.com/products/coalswitch/

https://twitter.com/GplcAe/status/1370268704840282112

Broker note estimates commissioning in April, by looks of things they appear to be on track to meet those expectations.

Post placing and CLN conversion we know of the following who have increased their existing holding -

Miton - from 4.81% pre placing to 10.2%
Lombard - from 0% to 12.3%
Gravendonck - 15.28% from % to 24.4%

Placing and CLN conversion shares issued = 2,360,873,700
Total of those taken by above TR1 holders = 1,520,425,726

That's 36.9% of the business tucked away leaving 840,447,974 loose shares many of which will be held longer term, can't be much of an overhang to clear before true value can be reflected into share price IMO.

Nice to see further updates on AEG's twitter page, base done ready for installation. Plant commissioning early Q2, hopefully things are about to get exciting once again.

Nice to see we have the same number of bitter posters here as usual, one departs promptly replaced by another 3 or 4, all seemingly interbred.

Anyway, looking at Friday's trade sure it could be our large holder but then why would they suddenly choose now to dispose of some of their holdings, they have had plenty of opportunity to do this prior and when we had greater volume of traded shares, it makes little sense. Further they have paid 1p per share, they could have elected to take cash rather than convert if it's one of the other bond holders, again that makes little sense.

We do have a TR1 holder who's been clearing out, Miton as per recent RNS, who paid 0.6p per share and have of late been buying a graphite play in open market, quite possibly fits the bill. If we look here they had just shy of 40 million when last reported, going by a few extra dumps it could well be those exited the building. Who'd blame them reading this board, it's a total disgrace IMO.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/grey/atgvf/ownership

We have a new TR1 holder just notified who have paid 1p a share for several million pounds worth, our largest holder has increased substantially and we have progress reports showing what's going on at ground level.

Sure share price isn't quite where we'd like it, we must be due a little news soon enough, going on past performance this can easily double or quadruple as we witnessed early January.

Good luck all genuine holders.