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Copper might break $4 today if it keeps moving like it is

Yesterday over 10m shares changed hands. Today, after 3 hours, it's 73,000 shares in 9 trades !! Markets sure are strange sometimes........

I'd agree - this should move higher from here. It does look to be in an uptrend.

That said, so far Copper is up 2.8% YTD, ATYM down 2.8% YTD !!

@coffeecups - it’s not that big of a deal. Tantalum is nice to have. It’s a high margin topup byproduct. It’s not a game changer.

Tantalum is shipping March 2024. I have a picture (sent by Andrada Chief Strategy Officer) of the 5 tonnes of Tantalum, in packing containers, on a pallet, secured and ready to be shipped.

Quarterly update will be separate. Likely next week based on previous timings.

Frans van Daalen has confirmed that the Tantalum is shipping as well. I’d asked and he replied with - “ I’m glad you asked about the tantalum! Here is a photo of our first 5 tonnes of tantalum concentrate being readied for shipment to AfriMet. The tantalum will give us extra income for very little additional processing cost.”

So great news on all fronts right now !!!!

Stretching things now, but one of the people who liked that LinkedIn post by Frans was the Andrada "Procurement and Contracts Manager" :-)

They had said in November that - "Discussion with glass-ceramics off-taker for supply of high-purity petalite is progressing well" - so I would guess that this has been finalised and they'll be starting sales. Then they'll continue the other work on producing battery grade lithium hydroxide.

Posted on LinkedIn yesterday by the Andrada Chief Strategy Office, Frans Van Daalen : "Our lithium pilot plant continues to produce technical grade petalite concentrate.................Maybe we should start selling?"

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7172296638709784576/

Surely a strong hint that they're on the verge of announcing first lithium sales. I can't believe he would post that otherwise.

An interesting batch of jobs being recruited for in Andrada since mid February :

https://andradamining.com/careers#vacancies

Construction Manager, Site Administrator, Project Engineer, Control Instrumentation Engineer etc.

At the very least it's a good sign of lots of ongoing changes at the plant, and confidence for the future.

So hang on.......the road was rehabilitated a year ago, but was so good, it attracted much more local traffic and they "tore apart" the road ?

Really ? So the road was ready and able to take 250 journeys each month by 40 tonne trucks (for the 10,000 tonnes of ore each month), but the extra "local traffic" tore it apart. The local traffic in Molulu must be something else.

And now there are a "few thousands tonnes" of ore ready to sell. There were 6,500 tonnes ready in June 2023. Perhaps a few thousand could mean 6,500, but regardless of that, it's confirmation that no extraction has been done since June 2023. I guess those 51 people employed at Molulu are working on an amazing logistics plan on how to move 10,000 tonnes of ore each month.

With the quarterly and FY update due within the next couple of weeks, I've been thinking of what my reactions will be to any news.

I'm expecting updates on ore-sorting and estimates of the throughput improvements it'll bring. I want to see that Tantalum has been produced and shipped. I want to see that the bulk -testing Lithium plant is fully operational - even if still being tweaked - and news on expected sales and volumes.

Then, obviously, there is the Strategic Review. We are now 10 months after it was announced, and 6 months after the estimated end-date (Sep 2023, which is the only date that has been given). If the next update includes ".....the Strategic Review is progressing well and further updates will be issued in due course......" then I might take to screaming at the screen.

I've held ATM since 2021, and have always believed in a very bright future, but my patience over the past year is starting to wear a little thin, as the rate of expansion isn't what I thought it would be. Obviously, holding ATM comes at the cost of missing other opportunities, and I need to decide how much longer I'm willing to do that, given the path to full expansion and significant profitability is very unclear at the moment.

Anthony / Sakhile - If you're reading this, you know what's needed in the next update :-).

RF has , as you say, retained his number of shares, and in fact he's also granted himself warrants to get many more at 5p. However, his stake in CRTM is reducing.

Dec 2019 - 77.6%

Dec 2020 - 38.3%

Dec 2021 - 27.9%

June 2022 - 21.8%

June 2023 - 18.4%

It would be an interesting exercise to investigate just how much RFs stake in CRTM has cost him. I'd wager that it's a lot less than you might think.

I'd also argue that he hasn't needed to sell any shares. He's on a £200,000 salary, there's £200,000 in the accounts for travel expenses for the year to June 2023 (unlikely that there are too many other people in CRTM claiming travel expenses), there are the hundreds of thousands paid by CRTM for his stake in MO, and then of course the Baobab Loan, which now stands at around £805,000 that CRTM owe RF, for a loan than was incurred on activities that were nothing to do with CRTM, but were made CRTMs problem when it bought MO, from, among others, RF.

And this is on a company without a single penny of revenue. It'll be interesting to see what happens if the money starts rolling in.

I think the problem CRTM faces, rather than the road or the funding, is the lack of credibility following announcements over the past 12 months which at best have been incredibly naive, and at worst are outright misleading.

Jan2023 "the Company expects to be free-cash flow positive by the end of H1 2023"

May2023-"Road rehabilitation is complete"

June2023-"Produce minimum of 6,000 tonnes per month, ramp up to 10,000 over the next few months, then potentially up to 15,000 tonnes per month".

Oct2023-"A binding Purchase Agreement for the proposed Acquisition (Kastro plant) is expected to be entered into on or before 31 December 2023"

Any new investor would have to have confidence that new announcements are actually based in reality, and it might be a long road in regaining that confidence given the track record.

There's also the question of what is currently ongoing operationally at Molulu. The RNS on 3rd Nov 2023 stated that CRTM employed 51 people at Molulu. There has been no update on the ore "stockpile" since June 2023 when it stood at 6,500 tonnes. Are those 51 people furiously digging away and enlarging the stockpile by 6,000 or 10,000 or 15,000 tonnes per month ? Or is the stockpile still 6,500 as hasn't changed since June ? The lack of operational updates is problematic as it raises further questions over the ability to actually supply the ore once the road is completed.

I think he'll be announcing details of another 4 mines in another 4 countries, to fulfil his promised "5 countries, 5 mines" plan. Each mine will, of course, be cash flow positive within 12 months, as he said he insists on that when evaluating mines.

:-)

I'm expecting to be waiting until the March Quarterly update for the next news. The March update is also the full year figures, and last years was also a "Company Update", so it would follow precedent for it to include a comprehensive update this time around too - with news on Tantalum, Lithium, Tin Expansion and the Strategic Process.

Let's just hope it's a good one !! I added again today, the two 282k trades showing as sells were my buys.

My RTW shares have just appeared in my ii account - all looks to be correctly converted.

Thanks

Thanks. Not just me then !!

I'm with ii.

Anyone seeing their ARIX shares converted to RTW in their accounts yet ? Maybe I'm being too impatient but I thought the timeline said it would happen at 8am or shortly after.