Member Info for BodRuncie

CFO's wife sold the same amount, so the family's total holding remains the same.

The biggest problem with TRX at the moment is that H2 totally fell off a cliff.

The recent TU tried to obfuscate this by only mentioning FY results. It has taken a little while, but PIs (and IIs) who dig deeper than the surface numbers will have seen this.

I pointed this out when the TU came out, along with numbers, and I suggest everyone on here do the same. Compare the HY and the FY trading statements and see how TRX performed in H2.

Communication has been very poor from TRX on this point. Both in declaring the H2 performance and in addressing it.

I had a full-sized position in TRX, built up over a few years, and was confident in mgmt until the FY25 update dropped. I sold out at a small loss at 58p.

Don't be a "mug punter" and follow internet msg board chat or blame old/new govts, check it out fir yourselves and Do Your Own Research. I'm willing to guess that everyone on here who is looking for reassurance over the past few days/weeks has not compared n7mbers from the H1 and H2 trading statements.

This drop seems purely company specific, down to poor results and poor communication.

TST had already downgraded the year's expectations, so the uplift on the downgrade is very much a good sign.

The company is very well managed, and credit to the board for insisting on shareholder value. It's a rough market out there right now, so potential offerers were probably looking for a steal.

After months of what-felt-to-shareholders like malaise, this statement feels purposeful and very positive.

Looks like MMs might have dropped the price to take out some stop losses. Quickly heading back up now.

Warning: if you set a stop loss, be prepared to have it taken up by greedy MMs!

It's not so much the value of this one contract as it is a display of the company/mgmt's ability to win new (and higher margin) contracts. It's a bellwether of their direction of travel.

Capita has fingers in so many pies, but it's still winning new (and prestigious) contracts in a difficult market.

It was released on 9th Feb last year, so should be soon.

I'm expecting: more of the DCB liability to have been repaid, NI contribution spike and economic headwinds, but those headwinds offset by increased Govt focus on the sector.

What I hope for: more DCB costs recovered via the courts, the H1-delayed Hackney project to have started now.

That information was certainly true as of the date of the Hardman report, April 2024, but things have changed since then. The FY24 revenue target was missed by c. 10%.

I've held TRX for a few years now, and have always been very positive on the company, but today's RNS struck a slightly sour note. The RNS seems worded in such a way as to obscure the disappointment of H2.

Going from the '24 Interims, where the 2 main parts of the business generated $14.7m revenue, that means H2 generated $13.7m, a drop in growth for the half-year.

TRX has previously boasted of its consecutive half-yearly growth numbers, but today's RNS only mentions growth in full years (8% growth for FY24, vs 20% at the half-year).

I have never liked the emphasis on company profitability based on EBITDA, when in fact the company is still running at a loss. I had a discussion with another shareholder on here in the past about the difference between EBITDA-positive and net cash positive, and the quote about how Charlie Munger substitutes the phrase "bulls h!t earnings" whenever he read "EBITDA earnings".

There have been a lot of sells today, some of which are mine, but they seem to have been absorbed, suggesting a background buyer. There is still a lot to like about TRX, and it may prove that the company is in the process of being bought out for a price higher than 58p, but in the short- to medium term I have concerns. I want to see more meat on the bone regarding the H2 drop. A loss of donors? Are the customers cutting back on orders due to global financial concerns?

It is tough to see what would cause a share price rise in the short to medium term, takeover aside, so it might come down to the next interim reporting period to see a return to growth in the business and the share price.

Last year, FY24, the GMBV contributed 3.2m USD of revenue. At the interim stage for this year, it had produced 1.7m USD revenue.

This smaller portion of the business has always lagged behind, in terms of revenue and growth %.

Macro events haven't stopped IIs from increasing their holdings, today is just traders and panicked PIs selling out.

This year's results are inline and next year's results will be even better.

My point is that we don't know what these people were contributing because there is no data.

We can speculate, but can't draw any firm conclusions. I know this is the Internet, so hot-takes and partisan bias are the order of the day, but if we're applying data and facts then all we can say is we don't have enough data to draw conclusions.

Regarding the stats on millionaires leaving the UK, the numbers of people are one size of the story, but the other side is how much tax were they paying?

If they were registered offshore to start with, there isn't much of a loss!

The problem with AI is that it still isn't "intelligent", it's just quicker at processing larger quantities of data.

It's still subject to GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).

It's like a fancier version of Microsoft's Clippy :)

Let's take a more balanced look. It's unlikely suitors we're banging the door down, starting a bidding war over TRX.

However, with a great product offering, that is growing worldwide, and prudent fiscal management, TRX is a little gem of a company. The board are formally assessing whether there is sufficient interest in a decently-priced buyout.

Don't get your hopes up, and don't get your knickers in a twist, and you'll be fine.

Today's RNS makes very good reading. I wish more of my holdings performed this well :)

See yesterday's Holdings RNS.

Octopus Investments up their stake from 17% to 18%. Must be feeling pretty confident :)

Immediate share price responses tend to be driven by PIs. IIs, like oil tankers, tend to take longer to make their move, but really go for it once they do.

There's a lot to digest in today's RNS. Too much for PIs to read and it's more complicated than "Ahead of Expectations/Profit Warning". For IIs to buy in, they'll want to crunch the numbers and be convinced to allocate significant funds.

Or, Occam's Razor, the news is actually a bit *meh*. I hope not!

*just to be clear: ITX have tons of cash for what they need.

Tons of cash for what they need, and will definitely see ITX through to breakeven and beyond.

V. interested in the SPARX news and what leads it has already generated :)

PIs don't hold much (or any) sway with these kinds of decisions, so it's not PIs that the board is concerned with. If the board want to sell out, it's the larger shareholders they would need to convince, and larger shareholders take a much longer-term and more holistic view than PIs.

The radio silence is most likely because there is nothing to report to the market.