10 Bagger from here?23 Apr 2025 15:51
From Wall Street today for what it's worth.
Hochschild Mining – Overview
Location: South America
Production (2025):
Gold: 250,000 oz
Silver: 8 million oz (excluding Pallancata C&M)
AISC (Break-even):
Gold: ~$1,850/oz
Silver: ~$24/oz
Cash Flow Margin at $4,000 gold / $100 silver: Strong
Debt: $350M
$100M due in 2024
$89M cash on hand
$200M additional credit available
New & Future Projects
Mara Rosa (Brazil):
80,000 oz/year (low cost)
Started in 2024
Royropata (Peru):
100,000 oz AUEQ (3M oz silver/year)
Starts in 2028
Monte Do Carmo (Brazil):
90,000 oz gold
Permitting stage – expected 2028
Volcan (Chile):
9 million oz gold (.7 gpt)
Potential 330K oz/year
AISC: ~$1,000
Capex: $900M
Production could begin 2028–2030
Not included in cash flow estimate (optional upside or sale)
Ownership
50% owned by one family
Dividends are a priority
Unlikely to sell – growth focus
Valuation at $4,000 Gold / $100 Silver Assume production from 2028 with 400K oz gold & 10M oz silver:
Gold FCF: 400,000 oz × ($4,000 – $1,850) = $860M
Silver FCF: 10,000,000 oz × ($100 – $24) = $760M
Total Annual FCF ≈ $1.62B
Valuation at 10x FCF = $16.2B
Conclusion If Hochschild Mining executes on new projects and gold reaches $4,000/oz, silver hits $100/oz, the company could be worth over $16 billion. However, high debt, permitting risks, and political red flags (Argentina, Peru, Chile) may keep valuation multiples conservative. Still, multi-bagger potential from current levels.
If Hochschild Mining reaches a market cap of $16.2 billion, the estimated stock price would be approximately $31.46 per share, assuming 515 million shares outstanding.