RE: Programming the QBT Fallacy.10 Dec 2023 16:36
Now. Previously I waved a wet finger in the air and took a guess at how many T21's you would have to set against the rest of the network over a month in order to get a statistically significant result. Significance is beyond my pay grade so you had better hope that QBT, whilst not explaining it to you, are doing so to their 'in advanced discussions' marks.
Unfortunately it would appear that some (hard of thinking) one else moaned about the post and got it deleted. Am I bothered? Well no. I'll just remember what I said and try stuffing the numbers in my model. That was the sacrifice of about 5,500 T21 Rigs to fight against, what was then, the 2,400,000 network for a month without QBT and then for a month with QBT and look at the relative results.
Now I have my 'StrawMan' Model, Hat Tip to Zesty, I can try that. I still have no idea about how to formulate a significance test but apparently it involves a Null Hypothesis, This Makes No Difference, compared to an Alternative Hypothesis, There is a Speed Boost of 2.6
Let's run the Null Hypothesis and the Alternative Hypothesis,
https://pascalworks.com/qbt/pictures/nullalt.html
As you can see based on running 5500 T21's in a network of 2,400,000 Rigs the average, let me do the sums for you, indicative boost is 2.39
That appears to be significant in as much that if Method B does what it says on the Tin then you can see the result with 5500 T21's on the network. It is a bit blatant and is, in part, the whole point of the exercise. However in order to see it so clearly you would have had to have run 5,500 T21's at ,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/11/27/bitfarms-ltd-announces-major-upgrade-in-bitcoin-mining-operations/
$2660 a pop for a total of $14.63 Million for two months to see something close to that particular answer. Of course if I knew how to calculate significance it is likely that I would not have had to write my own clunky but apparently useful model of the claims made by QBT. I am still mildly surprised that QBT have not given such an analysis to prospective investors.
Next up.
Let's See if,
https://quantumblockchaintechnologies.co.uk/images/QBT_-_Placing_30_Oct_23_final_-.pdf
Blowing £2,000,000 on a bunch of T21's and sticking the resulting coinage in your wallet then publishing its address for all to see would have short circuited the doubt from doubter such as myself.
LargeChablis over on ADVFN would probably want to know. I haven't tried it yet so I am also on tenterhooks.