Member Info for bobocaca

Just did a round of check on Nasdaq stocks year to date performance. Apple is the best performing, down 24%, Microsoft and Google 30%. Many big names are down 60% e.g. Nvidia, Meta, AMD, Intel, Netflix... you name it. Even Tesco is down 30%.

Oh yeah, that sort of make me feel slightly better about Darktrace as I sold out all my Nasdaq stocks in the beginning of the year to buy Darktrace.

Lending, I bet even you haven't encountered market like this year. So many stocks are down 70%, 80% even 90% since the start of the year. The problems just kept coming - first is the fuel price, then strong dollar/weak pound, high energy bill, high mortgage rate. But the least expected was the mini budget which causes the collapse of gilt and stock market. The world need some good news.

Do not believe people say if you keep the shares long enough, you will surely be making money. Marks and Spencer is down 44% after 30 odd years. The loss is actually a lot higher if you factor in the inflation. For someone who invested on the first day, they will likely have lost almost all their money in real term.

The blue chips are dropping like growth stocks. I blame it on Tuss and Kwateng. Any saving they think they might give us from tax cute and energy cap is peanut compared to the increased mortgage payment and wealth (pension) wiped out from the stock market. US will release their inflation data tomorrow. If it is better than expected, that could buy us some time until end of month when Kwateng finally will disclose how he will (or won't) fund his spending. I hope he will resign and drop all his plan if he could not figure that out.

Jefferies cuts Darktrace price target to 530 (615) pence - 'buy'

530p is good enough for me.

Sheltie, did you mean... Move on... to over stocks? Move on ... with life?

The update is inline with my expectation. The business is fine but massive headwind in the UK financial market. Check out the news headlines. I do not expect Darktrace share price to rise today on the trading update.

We all knew about impact of strong dollar. Short term trader and pessimist would buy despite all stocks reporting in dollar. How i see it is that the update further cement Darktrace as 'defensive' stock in high inflationary time. The business maintain its outlook despite everything that is happening in the world now.

The headwind come from currency exchange rate which is beyond control of the company.

Trading update was okay, no bad news but no surprise either.

About 720k shares for 304.35p at 15:00 in two tranches. Initially I thought that was a sell and thought the SP fall was small for that volume.

sheltie, the real issue is not the rate itself but the increase of the rate that result in having to pay hundreds if not thousan pound more every month. The mortgage interest rate may be higher 20 years ago but the house price was a lot cheaper, so you can't really compare that. I would be terrifying if my mortgage rate doubles but luckily there is still about 2 years before my fixed rate ends. Even if the rate remain high, I at least have time to plan for that. It will be hell for those whose fixed mortgage about to end.

Darktrace's low valuation is mainly attributed to the Mike Lynch factor. There were several occasion where SP fell because of ML court case. Also, indirectly, any bad news get amplified due to ML, for example, ShadowFall's shorting. Traders short stocks every day but most of them do not get reported by national newspaper. He may also be the reasons why some investors are wary of buying Darktrace shares. I personally think Darktrace should worth 500p now if not ML.

Despite the huge drop in last month, Darktrace actually fares better than many other stocks. Perhaps the companies in loss are more attractive targets for shortsllers. As I previously said, unless the macro economy changes, the SP is unlikely to have meaningful rise even with good trading update. The price will be rocketing, but now is not the time, it really depend a lot on the US (to lesser extend UK) market and interest rate policy.

If Darktrace is valued the same way as Nasdaq, then it is worth 1000p now.

Darktrace vs SentinelOne
Revenue: $415M vs $205M
EBITDA: $37M vs -$260M
Market cap: $2.4B vs $7.5B

How is Darktrace not cheap?

I can understand their view on valuation but expecting a company to have no competition is plainly stupid.

Unless a company has market monopoly for some political reasons, a market without competition is a bad market. Even Google had to compete with Yahoo (for younger people, Yahoo dominated the search engine in 90s). The important thing is, the market is growing and/or you are ahead of your competitors and I think Darktrace is doing very well with revenue rising EVERY SINGLE QUARTER. If you use Google Finance to plot the annual revenue, you can see the growth is astonishing.

Agree with old gold.
UK financial outlook looks like two worlds apart merely from a month ago - mortgage interest doubled, bond Nd pension almost collapsed, UK credit rating downgraded. You should assume all analyst reports obsolete.

It is not about Darktrace now. Many non tech, established companies shares dropped sharply in last 2 weeks. Even cash rich Microsoft fell 5% yesterday. Things are unlikely yo turn around before the war ends. Hope is that Russians get pushed out of Ukraine by Christmas.

In long term, Darktrace revenue growth is good, debt free, so there is no worry of company going bankrupt like made.com, cinemeworld or Aston Martin. All we can do now is ... wait.

https://darktrace.com/newsroom/darktrace-cyber-ai-loop-wins-cybersecurity-breakthrough-awards

I thought Putin had launched a nuclear when I saw the SP nosedived. After learning its the US job data, then I chuckled. The overreaction is really beyond belief, I found it amusing.

Can't see the content but thought its rather rare for mainstream US media to report on things like this
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/sliding-uk-markets-saw-darktraces-ceo-and-three-others-snap-up-their-own-stock.html

Rising rates and macro uncretainty upset dealmaking activity

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/uk-tech-m-a-spree-pauses-as-buyers-pull-out-amid-chaotic-markets

Just use the total shares number of approximately 720M, so 1.5% is about 10.8M shares. The volume was low in the last week, so all the SP fall must have been caused by it. The collapse of pound must have spooked oversea investors. Now that it is a done deal, hopefully SP will start going up.