Member Info for bobliz35

Interesting comments and thoughts Steve and Sotolo

I only have questions and not answers
1) With Central Banks having to decrease and or stop Q.E and the consequent drag on the market
2) Increasing inflation
3)Geo-political extremes (Ukraine, fuel prices, exclusion of Russia from the world banking swift system etc and the subsequent hit on the P&L and balance sheet of global Corporates. Plus the reduction of world wide disposable income

What premium will a stung balance sheet. robust dividend policy and a supposedly safe haven investment have when general market value drops like a stone.

Interesting times we now live in.

Bob

Hi Steve,

In that the Endeavour take over bid rejected by Centamin and voided by Endeavour on the 27-29 January 2020 at 127p per share, and that gold in January of that year was 1550 - 1580 dollars per ounce what do you feel would the Institutions holding Centamin feel an equitable and acceptable bid price would be now. I ask the question on this basis as although private investors will have possibly strong views the decision would be in the hands of the Major Institutional share holders. The views of others with considerable expertise on this would be most welcome .

Bob

Watching gold over many years (sadly almost a hobby) there are 2 or possibly 3 trigger investors in the mix. The first are the short termers possibly milliseconds on a repetitive basis scalping a fraction percentage , you need the algorithm and technology to compete at this level. secondly the very wise traders operating on head levels and taking both short and long levels on an averaging basis hoping for a 51+ plus position, and the long term trader operating on geopolitical and general market information. On that basis sectors 1 and 2 will cause wild fluctuations whilst sector 3 will underline the base commodity price. This is what we are seeing now. The underlying sector will average out and an average will arise whereby the merry go round will occur again from that base. Neck on the block gold at about 1928 -35 tomorrow.
However dont bet the house on it as just my amateur view and a bit of light thought in these dire times.
Bob

Hi Tibbs,

Always succinct and understanding and acceptance of those on this board with specialist knowledge. I would however remind you that Centamin IR are the recipient of COMPANY DOLLAR
Both my IR Companies and PR Companies followed my Company line without fail as their income was dependant on my Corporate line and failure was not part of their contractual obligation. Believe me the Regulatory authorities are staffed by zealous individuals who delight in fragging into the light of day failings of Companies in their Company strictures. Many who perhaps hold similar views perhaps to yourself on big Corporate business and Institutions.
With Regulatory authorities behind you Corporate fortresses can be demolished. except of course Comex but look up who is the Regulator of that organisation.

Kindest regards and the balance you so ably bring to the conscience of this board.

Bob

Cowichan
I forgot to add that Companies House has a Register of all Board members including their address.

Bob

Hi Cowichan,

With your permission I would like to send your post to all Board members including the Non Execs and the Regulatory Body controlling the FTSE the FCA This will be by Recorded hard post .
In addition the Jersey regulatory body is extremely keen to maintain credibility (where Centamin is registered) My previous involvement with these organisation would indicate they have an almost zealous intent for transparency in Company communication where affecting the market of which they are involved.
A flag at this stage might influence future thought processes of those wishing a depression of CEY value
Lastly I am most impressed by your in depth knowledge of the Gold mining scenario. I can only offer a knowledge of the markets , regulators and how it works
(or should)
Bob

Hi Tibbs

What a succinct evaluation . In my experience (albeit in a different industry) sub contract exposure was limited to short term contracts whereas long term such as Sukari would undoubtedly benefit from "in house " exploitation. I take much confidence in Hogans management so far and his now more public and Investor oriented visibility. Softly softly catchee monkey.
Regards

Bob

Hi Dasut,

Binned my post after reading your far more capable assessment. Yes Barrick is global leader but do others not far off in stature wish to secede a Tier 1 asset like Centamin in a possible and indeed probable major world mining location to Barrick. What would the reaction of their shareholders (institutional) to handing Barrick this on a plate!!!! without at least resistance to make Barrick pay at least fair price if not as most aggressive take overs work out above reasonable market value. Going to be a very intersting time going forward and whatever the final oncome in my opinion CEY current SP will be some way forward of where it is at present.

With acknowledgements to Cowichan and have done as he asked.

Bob

Hi Tibbs

As always a concise and cohesive post covering issue and views posted here. It would appear that my Rose tinted specs are somewhat supported by Peel Hunt and Berenburg on their broker ratings this morning. Berenburg uplift especially after their earlier lesser rating in December.

Bob

Thankyou Dasut, your concise thoughts are of immense help to us more mining naïve investors.

Am I wrongly assessing that given a base fixed costs for the gold mining industry Centamin has more positive than negative position going forward. I do have a habit of wearing rose tinted specs but
1) Rising wage inflation benefitted by Centamin home bred mining education programme.
2) Exponentially rising energy costs offset by solar and battery storage . Crude Jan 2021 53 dollars a barrel ,as of this morning WTI crude 88 dollars a barrel. Futures off the scale.
3)Benefits as you say from plant freed for production from the waste stripping exercise in 2022.

Happy to be shot down by others expertise.

Bob

Hi Swampmonster,

I'm with you, as a long term investor I was dreading Horgan dressing up this mornings update to please, at the best, current fickle and non credible analysts and short term market dippers.Credibiity needs to be built layer by layer and to my mind this steady as she goes approach is exactly the strategy to build confidence in the large Institutional holders.
To my inexperienced eye the middle achieved on previous guidance hints that there may be some cards being held up sleeves . Just my feeling .
Somewhere the more experienced members here forecast some figures of Capex against AISC reductions on energy costs going forward. Can someone point me in the right direction to review
those again. In view of the massive spike in world wide energy costs are Centamin ahead of the field in this direction. Are they reflected in any forecast AISC figures. Not lazy just deferring to better able minds on this one.
Regards to all
Happy bunny Bob

Hi Cowichan

A very succinct case for a Barrick endeavour to achieve CEY on the cheap. However although external forces apart Hogan is a wealthy man in his own right and unlike Pardey does not need a brown envelope to do the bidding of others. have a look at his C.V history to understand his rejection of pressure to float n a desire to succeed at Toro. My belief is that his driving force is to expand his ego and professional standing in turning round a downside company with mega upside potential. A hero in the making. With such a reputation and ego at stake does he wish to be remeberes as a pawn in Barricks portfolio. I think not. Perhaps wishful thinking but as long as Blackrock and the Institutions also have faith in the upside then he will have their continuing support and where the real power lies. Not with Barrick. The FED may run but they cannot hide against the inflation surge and when rates dont rise against the inflation bubble the explosion (having lived through inflation at 20+%) gets exponentially greater. Servicing Government debt when rates rise by say 2% will be crippling Where will the smart money go. Crypto, I dont think so, and Governments will be swift to own the source or tax the returns +++++ big time.

Just my personal thoughts and how I wish the majority does not transpire as the resulting recession and unemployment will be dire to a lot of ordinary working people.

Kindest regards to you and this wonderful board.

Bob

Merry Christmas to one and all here. Most certainly the most mannered and convivial forum on the net. Diverse opinions of course but all voiced in unabusive tones Many many thanks to all.

Keep safe and well

Regards

Bob

Thankyou Gold gnome for your insight on a non exec role. My non exec had a quarterly visit to every building site we had and conversed at length with the project Managers and sales staff Some 18+ different locations. I was puzzled as to how after 3months he would visit a site and know the Christian name of everybody he conversed with previously. I was later advised that he had a memo book and input after each visit the names and positions of everybody he had talked to and refreshed before each visit. Very subtle way to win peoples confidence and open up on how things really were.
It would be interesting to know when and at what time CEY non execs visited Sukari!!!!

Bob

Hi Halfpenny,
I agree that a non exec on other similar discipline boards can be an asset to the Company and as a past CEO with non execs on board know full well there expertise and guidance can be of immense value. However her status as a Geologist seems to have been used in posts as Chief Operations Officer and technical services. From that I would presume her hands on expertise in the mining field backed by a Geologist background would have made her eminently open to asess the field conditions at Sukari (if she ever went there )
However as I have said this is just my sad lack of knowledge in depth view.

Bob

Hi Tibbs
You have again hit the nail on the head.
Dr Farrows C.V herewith with acknowledgements to Aclara Resources

Dr. Catharine Farrow was first elected to the Board in April 2020. Dr. Farrow is a Professional Geoscientist
(APGO) with more than 25 years of mining industry experience. She currently serves as a Director of Franco-
Nevada, Centamin PLC, and is Chair of the Board of Exiro Minerals Corp. From 2012 to 2017, she
was Founding CEO, Director and Co-Founder of TMAC Resources Inc. Before TMAC, Dr. Farrow was Chief
Operating Officer of KGHM International (formerly Quadra FNX Mining Ltd.). Previously at Quadra FNX
and FNX Mining Company Inc., she held many senior roles in a wide range of disciplines including
operations, technical services, corporate development and exploration. She has been honoured as one
of the 100 Global Inspirational Women in Mining (2015 and 2018) and is a past recipient of the William
Harvey Gross Medal of the Geological Association of Canada (2000).

She was announced as Non Exec to Centamin Board in September 2019 and was in position when the share price was 225p in August 2020 and through the debacle that followed when the problems of the waste and Wall plunged the price to 106 on the 24th Nov 2020. Why oh why with her reputed technical mining knowledge could she not see what was happening. It was what she was paid to oversee.
I have sadly not got the technical expertise to ask the company why she is still in tenure but perhaps Cowichan and others here have that expertise.
Does anybody know her remuneration package for what in my personal opinion is an abject failure of a professional failing?

Bob.

Olderand wiser

The problem with doing nothing and moving on in your reply to Tibbles is exactly what will happen time and again . I agree Regulators seem to have the Companies and not shareholders (at least the PI'S ) interest foremost. But there is an old saying "if you dont study history you are destined to repeat it. I would add "and react to it" you are destined to repeat it.
Some non -execs are excellent but I haven't looked into the CV of Centamin non execs as yet Did any have the in depth technical technical knowledge of the mining industry and specifically open pit mining. I would think not. Thought of the day, put Cowichan forward as a Centamin noni - exec. Get my shareholder vote.

Merry compliments of the season to all here whatever the amazing and diverse but mannerly views you have.

BobLiz

Hi Tibbs

What you say has a lot of merit. However can I add that the Executive Directors have the responsibility to profitably develop the Company but , and this the killer for me!!! The NON EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ARE APPOINTED TO SAFEGUARD THE SHAREHOLDERS AND QUERY THE BOARD OF EXECS IF THEY FEEL THIS HASS NOT HAPPENIED!!! Their remuneration for minimal effort and work is well documented and HAVE FAILED IN THEIR PRIMARY OBLIGATION. The role of the Non Execs need to be examined in this context in my opinion although they will and or have swanned off to some other lucrative minimal effort company/companies. Apologies for the capitals but does mitigate somewhat my disdain for these leeches on the bosom of many Companies.

Bob

Hi Guys

Apologies , How bl....y smug was my post after re-reading it . I know how sad many on here are re recent SP movements but I really wished to give some upside thoughts which came across a bit skewed. Hold on better times are coming.

Very kindest regards

Bob

Hi Razor,

Commiserations on your 10% but view it in the context of 6% plus inflation at this time.
I am not sure my meandering thoughts should be adressed in reply to you but always follow your posts so here we go.

Firstly I have the luxury of being in Centamin from its outset on AIM and a plan on the wall and accumulated divis as a percentage of initial investment satisfactory.

I get either depressed or amused by some posters on here and long may the latter continue to keep me in a jocular mood.
Comex!!!! How many decriers, vilifiers on here know or have educated themselves as to the governance bodies of this entity . From their comments , not many. I laughed my duck off at predictions of 1900 as I had just taken an option at 1878 as there was no way the Fed ( who manipulate the Chicago mercantile Exchange (see governing body as above )were going to see this happen. As it turns out I set my out at 1819 so missed a few points but happy.

In 2007 I sat and thought the markets were going to hell in a basket so liquidated all my holdings into gold. The present situation as I see it (and 51% correct= happiness and 49%= misery)
America has a defunct President presiding over massive inflation (although at the risk of encouraging Tibbs Boris is not now far behind in my view but be careful Tibbs as to what you wish for)which the Fed is throttled as to interest rate rises to counter and the inflation genie is already out of the bottle in any event.
Rising territorial aggression from China and Putins Russia London cabbies talking about how good their few bitcoin holdings are going. and predicting $100,000.
Hogan's announcements on the 1st and the 8th are only of interest to me if its steady as she goes. External events will trigger all that we wish for if patient enough .

Regards to all here

Bob