RE: Selling now???5 Dec 2025 08:31
Kindly posted by Someuwin on the other board.EOG new coverage.
The Cavendish note is 16 pages but here's the summary...
Europa Oil & Gas
Barracuda on the hook
Europa Oil & Gas is a full cycle E&P, with a portfolio including production, appraisal and exploration opportunities. The company recently announced that it has signed non-binding heads of terms (HoT) with a prospective farm-in partner for its Equatorial Guinea licence EG08, which – if completed – will give the company a carried interest in what will be one of the highest-profile exploration wells to be drilled next year. Meanwhile, a data room is open with respect to Cloughton – a large gas appraisal opportunity onshore UK – with Europa looking for a partner to pay for the next stages of development on the legacy discovery (which has the potential to unlock considerable value). Wressle continues to provide valuable cashflow, with an application submitted for the next stages of development, which should see production (including gas monetisation) significantly boosted. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a near-term target price of 5.1p/share.
— Farm-out confirmation imminent: Europa has stated that it expects to reach a binding agreement with a farm-in partner by the end of the year, providing funds for the Barracuda exploration well. This deadline is fast approaching, and while there remain risks (regarding terms, completion and timing), we have no reason to believe that there will be any changes to the timeline originally suggested. Some value will already be priced in to today’s share price; however, we expect confirmation of the terms, plus binding documentation to significantly de-risk Barracuda (worth 4.7p risked, on our numbers), as well as follow-on opportunities. The precise share price reaction is hard to speculate on until the terms are known (the dilution at the asset level and the farm-in fee); however, a full carry on a single well would be up to cUS$53m gross investment (tested and suspended as a producer). A hypothetical relinquishment of 50% of the asset would mean a US$11.4m net carry to Europa, or 0.8p/share.
— High impact/low risk near-term drilling: After the immediate uplift in valuation to account for the work programme carry, investor attentions will shift to the Barracuda well itself, and the potential upside in the event of a commercial discovery. This well comes with technical and geological risks; however, as exploration wells go, Barracuda is relatively low risk, given its proximity to existing discoveries, and the successful application of regional AVO technology. The well is likely to spud in 2H next year, and we would expect market anticipation to build as the drill-date nears. A successful drilling result would be transformational for Europa.