RE: Greenhaven Capital8 Aug 2025 06:35
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“Another holding that fits squarely in my high expected value, uncertain timing bucket is Burford Capital (BUR),
the litigation funder. Burford ended the quarter with a market capitalization of approximately $2.5B while having
the rights to multiple $1B+ potential judgements including Sundance Resources, Sysco food price fixing claims,
and most importantly the YPF Argentina case.”
The aggrieved YPF shareholders (and Burford through their litigation funding) have a judgement against Argentina
totaling more than $16B of which Burford would be entitled to more than $6B. On June 30th, a Federal Judge gave
Argentina 2 weeks to place shares representing its 51% stake in YPF into an account at BNY Mellon in the U.S. as
a partial settlement of the $16B judgement. Burford’s portion would be worth approximately $2.5B (the entire
quarter ending market cap).
Argentina has appealed this decision, as they are appealing the larger ruling. The YPF settlement accrues interest
for Burford at over $300M per year. It is my expectation that the YPF case gets settled in 2026 for more than 50
cents on the dollar paid out over 5+ years. The combination of current business + YPF proceeds + additional
progress in other cases gets us somewhere between a double and triple of the share price, which is impacted by
individual cases and the discount, if any, applied to YPF.
There are reasons for a settlement next year, including the Argentinian election cycle and Argentina’s desire to tap
the capital markets, but uncertain timing is an understatement.