Member Info for bluerill

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/china-played-a-great-game-on-lithium-and-weve-been-slow-to-react-ceo.html

The 'x' factor in all this is deep recession fears. You can see it in the major commodities like oil and iron ore, which have had significant corrections/falls on the back of almost universal agreement of a co-ordinated recession in the developed economies next year. In addition, for now anyway, because equities stubbornly refuse (for a variety of often weak reasons) to 'fully commit' to a recession-driven sell-off, in my view, commodity markets are taking an even bigger hit as hedge funds in particular feel they have a more reliable hedge there than shorting the S&P. Meantime, secondary and tertiary commodities like Li are seeing some considerable collateral damage as more sellers emerge in reaction to the falls in the major commodities than might otherwise occur. The final piece in the puzzle then is provided by the relevant analyst at the major investment banks who all want to be first to call major moves even in minor markets. In this particular case, this GS analyst may have well have seen the beginnings of a supply glut, but the real driver for his call, whether he admits it or not, is that the Bank's chief economist will have made a call for a recession in say, Q3 next year, and so he then feels obligated to work that economic prediction into his Li views. Throw in the props these guys get internally for a 'first' to make any market call and you get the final result that can otherwise seem counter-intuitive.

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Carson Block (not to mention others from the analyst at Peel Hunt to the hedge fund of equivalent of a lucky sperm club member, Josh Young) knows nothing of Pantheon or its assets, nor even the nature of the Company's management, which for years now has been badgered constantly by its large, sophisticated shareholders to be MORE promotional, as many have long known exactly the nature of the potential of the Group's acreage, while everyone from Jay to Bob Rosenthal have instead remained steadfastly cautious and circumspect in all their public pronouncements. It is particularly notable that Block offers absolutely nothing 'new' in publicising his short position, instead allowing a completely empty quote 'it seems to be too good to be true...' to stand in as his investment thesis, effectively the hedge fund equivalent of 'sure I'll have some of those.' Such a comment not only betrays a willful ignorance of what the Company has achieved in proving up what is quite possibly the biggest independent oil development project in the world, but it also implies this is all some kind of fly-by-night operation, when the reality is precisely the opposite. By the time the State of Alaska in the mid-2010s had effectively defaulted on its tax credit scheme that caused Great Bear's creditors to force it into an RTO/merger with a listed Company that turned out to be Pantheon, the Great Bear professionals and its backers/investors ALREADY knew the contours of the monster they had under their acreage. What Block and his wolf pack don't - and many on here may not even be aware - by the time of the RTO with PANR occurred, the paid-in capital at Great Bear was already in excess of $200m to $250m and some of the biggest investors participating in the capital raise the day of the RTO were legacy Great Bear shareholders. The Company's 20+billion bbls of OIP is effectively a 15 year overnight success. Too good to be true? Nah.

This rollout is going to pretty much lock the company into a growth path for the next decade as it is essentially recession-proof: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BVC/multi-year-contract-with-cityfibre-for-edgility/15675861

Lovely sentiment. It's just a shame that for you, professional standard is when someone uses punctuation.

So you think, after I do you the courtesy of providing a fair-minded, if incomplete, assessment of what has happened so far - which ends with what I think is a reassuring view of the next 6 months for shareholders despite the damage so far - you think an appropriate follow-up is, 'Yeah, but what do you think happens next? I think it's going to 17p. Don't know why....' Not even if this is the first share you bought after a 10yr extended period of potty training, does that deserve to put out into the world, let alone deserve a reasoned response. Well done, you made me regret responding to you already. Bye.

No no, flat, none taken. Your constant snarky references to me in your posts were obviously meant as a compliment. Anyway, you were clearly trying to goad me into responding, so mission accomplished. Here I am. Go nuts....in fact, I'll even give you some ammo to get you started: Q. Did I get the share price wrong? A. yup. But was there anything in the actual results that I feel justified in any way the quantum of the fall since they reiterated H2 guidance and the rhetoric around the Cityfibre deal remains upbeat ? nope. Q. In fact, you were so convinced it was the cheapest tech name in the market at 40p, you must think its unique value at this point? A. yup. Take out the cash and the value of its wholly owned real estate in Boston and Rome, and you own all 3 major - projected to grow - operating business virtually for nothing. Q.So why has the sp done so poorly, genius? Don't you think if management agreed with you, they should be promoting the hell out the stock? A. yup. they have summarily failed so far, but I believe there has been reason(s) for their silence, and that is finally starting to change. I expect September to be the start of a much more visible PR period. Q.So why is the sp below 30p?!?!? Surely it can't be only because management and Shore have maintained radio silence for 6 months?!?!!? A. No, but falling out of the TA-125 and the 28m shares that traded on the exit date of 9 Aug, could go a decent way to explaining the more severe weakness that started as much as 2 months before 9 Aug (as Israeli instos got wind of the impending ejection and started shorting the shares), and has continued since as the net selling (there was a big short position into the rebalance date) has taken time to be absorbed. quick note: the fact that this massive impact on the share price has hardly gotten a mention here is a bit disturbing, but that's for another time. Q. So what now? A. As I alluded to earlier, I believe the management is already stepping up its marketing (from nothing, admittedly), starting with a roadshow to instos with Shore Cap soon and then, my hope, a closing of the deal with Citryfibre which I believe will be transformational and also allow the buyback to restart.....Like I said, take your best shot.....

of course, nothing with this share is simple. Yesterday was a holiday in Israel, so today is the first trading session since the Thursday rebalance. The twitchy market in London is a reflection of the difficulty of the TA line to hold onto a gain so far. It opened up near-4% and is presently up 1.5% at an equivalent price of around 33.25p

That was yesterday, Always. Despite that close, the UK price closed above 32.5p equivalent to the Israeli closing price. Today, with Tel Aviv shut, the price over here was basically unchanged on pretty good volume. So the message is clear: the UK market is saying that Thursday's 7% fall in TA was excessive due to the massive selling from the index deletion and thus the Israeli price will rally several percent on Sunday when the market there is open and we aren't of course. We shall see....

I really hope you guys appreciate the importance of the news I posted regarding the Company's deletion from the TA-125 on Thursday. This helps explain completely the share price weakness over the past couple of months, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the Company's fundamentals. As a result, after tomorrow when the shares leave that index, we have the strongest expectations in several years for a substantial share price recovery as those fundamentals are 'allowed' - finally - to be properly reflected in the market, especially with interims due by August month-end that will reinforce the message that this Company has multiple disruptive businesses that offer investors recession-resistant growth prospects. So, no offence, but you could not have chosen a more inappropriate moment in the Company's entire history to start a thread called 'scary times'. The coming months are precisely the opposite.

My alter ego on the advfn board, Echoridge, has posted an extensive explanation of the reason for the particular weakness in our share price over the past 6 weeks: BATM is being deleted from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 125 index on Thursday. This explains the significant build up of of a near-11m share short in the shares, the heavier volume in TA than in the UK for some time now, and the early uptake of the trade in Israel since pros over there would have been much more aware of the names in the relegation zone in that index and thus would have started shorting the stock much before the 21 July announcement date, etc. A lot more detail is provided in the other post, so I'll finish with my conclusion: I believe there will be more than enough demand for the stock to take up any further selling between now and the rebalance at the end of the day on Thursday, and it otherwise sets us up for a mutli-stage rally starting next week as we now know that over 10m shares have been sold in the past couple of months that have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with anyone in the market's view of this Company's fundamentals - which in fact have improved materially with the CityFibre deal but which this ridiculous index rebalance short selling managed to prevent the price rally we deserved on that announcement at the time - which will be further reinforced when the Company reports its interims by the end of this month.

oh brother, just leave it out. flippin' amateur

Again, a red herring posed rhetorically to try and dress it up like some kind of 'gotcha' insight. That's like asking a Formula 1 driver if he worries about blowing out a tire. Of course you 'worry' about that, just like everything else that can happen in a small Company experiencing rapid growth in a new market segment, ANYWHERE. But I also know that if that kind of company keeps delivering on orders, distribution deals, geographic diversification and general market penetration while establishing market leadership, as is the evidence with ZED thus far, then the capital needed to fund the kind of situation you're describing - which is simply a working capital deficit - will always be available, and often from non-equity sources.

You want me to comment on the progress of the internal business affairs of a public company?!? How in the h*ll am I supposed to have a view on that? (And while we're on the subject, how do you come to imply that you DO know? This is all getting very weird). My entire investment thesis is that this is a £15m Company, making all kinds of progress on multiple fronts in multiple jurisdictions, and the market price isn't discounting success in ANY of them. This is partly a result of the fact that it is a brand new Company establishing itself as the market leader in a brand new market, so the market is in an exaggerated 'show-me' mode, but mostly because equity markets are in a very bearish place everywhere right now, particularly for small caps. Over the next 9-12 months, all ZED have to do is execute on a handful of the order/distribution breakthroughs it has already announced in the past few months in order to double or triple the share price easily. If we were a £100m market cap based on huge expectations on everything announced so far plus more to come, I might give a hoot about your snarky question re Australia, but right now my only interest is in seeing the Company continue to prove its products as the industry standard, win more orders, broaden its geographic distribution reach and gain widespread adoption. In the meantime, you and your creepy friend can continue to suck wind.

your response was genuinely the dumbest thing I've ever read here or anywhere. You literally mocked your very existence. Again: are you Q?

Guess you missed this (a pattern of yours I notice): '.....Wait a second. This is a wind-up, isn't it, original? It must be because otherwise, that would have to be the most clueless self-own in the history of financial chat board responses. Good one!....'

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ZED/zenova-fire-investigation-demonstrations-/15523510

'......Commenting on the events, Tony Crawley, CEO of Zenova Group PLC, said: "GATR are at the forefront of fire investigation training in the UK and have one of the most comprehensive facilities dedicated to fire-investigation and related activities outside of the USA. By partnering with GATR we can demonstrate the benefits of Zenova FP fire protection paint in 'real life' room setups, including how it stops the spread of fire, protects substrates, limits a fire's intensity, and reduces the amount of water needed to tackle a fire, and the associated water damage. All of these are important factors for those who fight fires, investigate their origin, behaviour and causes, and insure properties against fire risks"......'

I'm sure Fire/Lifescape will be right behind ZED. Five years and a failed IPO later, but that's 'right behind' in the minds of some I guess.

Wait a second. This is a wind-up, isn't it, original? It must be because otherwise, that would have to be the most clueless self-own in the history of financial chat board responses. Good one!

Wait, 'Original'. Are you Q?