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Same old end of day - widen the spread but still want full ask still no doubt getting the print they are after

Same here :(

FWIW I did ask IR about when Dr T's opinion albeit "confident" opinion on the perched water would become fact. I did get a reply that merely advised that he was "looking forward" to updating at CMD.
We are not that far from this update so I would like to think that he wouldn't be looking forward to anything if they were drowning in water akin to the Titanic as the Twitsperts would have us believe based on their own extensive inside knowledge of Huuricane's data.

Question is does it benefit Hurricane "the company" as opposed to shareholders "renters" to have a lower share price whilst the convertible bond is in place?

It reads to me as if it does but does anyone else read it the same way. Going back over results prior to today since it's inception there has always been an uplift in the share price to factor in - am I right in thinking that they pay less if the sp is lower?

Ha ha I thought the same - plenty of us are a little tetchy, I believe he posted without malice aforethought unlike others who slide in with a subtle one liner and then others that write a novel for our benefit.

I will listen to the opposing view investing in a n other taught me that lesson but currently I can't see the argument for believing one opinion over another when one can say what they like and the other (supposedly) should playy by the rules as in if it's price sensitive then release it

Perhaps we should all make a small purchase in the morning and layer the book ourselves :))

I think a lot of us are ready to buy , I certainly am, I could do to average down my small position but would just like to get a feel for the bottom - without being arrested of course.

I'm not sure about the shorting either . Don't forget thought that people already holding long only have to declare if they are net short Don't know if the likes of RB hold short positions as don't know much about CA

The EPS continues to deliver oil in line with guidance. The headline production figure of 2.8 million barrels of oil sales with average production 13,300 barrels / day since start-up is very satisfactory. For 2020 brokers estimate that with 18,000 barrels per day of production at $65 per barrel the company should generate $270 million in operating cash flow. The addition of well stock and debottlenecking activities to increase the EPS vessel productivity to 40,000 barrels per day should see operating cash flow grow to $400 million in 2022.

Cash generation gives Hurricane optionality to explore, invest to increase production, or consider returns to shareholders. At the current share price, the Fund believes that a buyback of shares could be an attractive use of capital in the interest of the company.

I would say that they are suggesting that HUR commence a buyback using funds from the EPS. Personally I don't see that happening.

The point I was getting at and happy to be corrected is that from HUR's perspective would there be much point in using up cash to do a buyback that then forces them to pay more under the terms of the bond if the sp increases?

I only cast my eye across it as I had a had a vague recollection of wondering at the tail end of last year that maybe HUR weren't as bothered as we were about the sp decline.

As I said happy to be corrected

Looking at the terms of the bonds HUR have - someone correct me if I'm wrong but if they use company funds to do a share buyback and try and boost the sp then they end up paying more under the terms of those bonds.

When I was reading up on it yesterday and knowing that as per the CEO of ENQ shareholder are viewed as "renters" I did wonder whether (cynically) it could be why they don't seem too bothered

The accounting for the Convertible Bond required the recognition of an embedded derivative liability related to the equity conversion option. The fair value of the embedded derivative is based on a simulation model which is impacted, in particular, by the volatility assumption applied and the Group's share price at the reporting date. The higher the assumed volatility and the higher the Group's share price, the more the fair value of the derivative liability increases. Any increase in the liability creates a corresponding non-cash charge in the Income Statement.

At 31 December 2017, the fair value of the embedded derivative liability was valued at $28.6 million. Between 31 December 2017 and 31 December 2018, Hurricane's share price rose from £0.31 to £0.44 per ordinary share, and the volatility assumption increased from 23.6% to 30.1%. The volatility assumption was calculated as a blended average of the trading history of the Group's own shares and shares in a relevant peer group, for a period of six months prior to the measurement date. It is assumed that this is an approximate forecast of the volatility in Hurricane's share price for the period to conversion. These movements have driven an increase in the derivative liability of $42.4 million, to a closing figure at 31 December 2018 of $71.0 million. Further share price rises would increase the liability and corresponding losses, assuming other factors remain the same. The majority of interest costs of $24.5 million for the Convertible Bond have been capitalised during the year.

Hi yes - that's what I was on about this morning hence I revisited the RNS. I also looked up the definition of confident in case I was mistaken :)

This maybe
Ferrexpo Plc using EPIC/TICKER code (LON:FXPO) has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘UNDERWEIGHT’ this morning by analysts at Barclays Capital. Ferrexpo Plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within UK Main Market. Barclays Capital have set their target price at 140 GBX on its stock. This now indicates the analyst believes there is a potential downside of -12.6% from today’s opening price of 160.25 GBX.

The accounting for the Convertible Bond required the recognition of an embedded derivative liability related to the equity conversion option. The fair value of the embedded derivative is based on a simulation model which is impacted, in particular, by the volatility assumption applied and the Group's share price at the reporting date. The higher the assumed volatility and the higher the Group's share price, the more the fair value of the derivative liability increases. Any increase in the liability creates a corresponding non-cash charge in the Income Statement.



At 31 December 2017, the fair value of the embedded derivative liability was valued at $28.6 million. Between 31 December 2017 and 31 December 2018, Hurricane's share price rose from £0.31 to £0.44 per ordinary share, and the volatility assumption increased from 23.6% to 30.1%. The volatility assumption was calculated as a blended average of the trading history of the Group's own shares and shares in a relevant peer group, for a period of six months prior to the measurement date. It is assumed that this is an approximate forecast of the volatility in Hurricane's share price for the period to conversion. These movements have driven an increase in the derivative liability of $42.4 million, to a closing figure at 31 December 2018 of $71.0 million. Further share price rises would increase the liability and corresponding losses, assuming other factors remain the same. The majority of interest costs of $24.5 million for the Convertible Bond have been capitalised during the year.

Agree, however, I suspect the right time would be end of this month once both wells are flowing concurrently iaw the 13th Dec RNS statement if it is a clear and unequivocal statement that you are after. So let's give HUR two weeks and see what happens then on the comms front.

That makes sense. Good point

Yes I agree - I remember another company I invested in where they used video updates for their spin and kept the RNS's very woolly. I have re read that part of the RNS again and I'm not sure that at that point they could put anything else - it may be that more time was needed to confirm what they are "confident " of is the case. In fairness in this particular case they might just be in that assessment period however "confident" is a pretty strong word in terms of it's definition. . They can only say it so many times otherwise it just gets daft but they need to close the door firmly on it and hope a few get their fingers trapped in it

Sadly people will stand in front of you and comfortably lie to your face and if you do anything about it they have the law on their side, they don't like a bit of summary justice. I'd like to see Dr T and his current twitter detractor going at it hammer and tongs but in the absence of that a sound rebuttal will do.
TBF I never thought this a company that "spins" in the way that some do but have to agree that it's not a vanity project for Trice and they need to communicate more clearly so there can be no doubt as that will be used. and picked apart Part of theproblem lies with outfits like twitter where people give themselves a platform but we are stuck with it so these companies need to understand how to write unequivocal RNS's. I suspect though that part of the problem is one of having to wait to confirm what they "confidently" believe After a certain a n other I try to keep an open mind but clearly "confident" isn't enough for some and since people are alluding to the fact that they aren't being entirely open then sadly they may need to address it one last time in that unequivocal manner - as soon as they are able.
I don't see the company as "failing" we knew when we invested that the Dr Trices's theory would need testing but the share price is certainly that!

The thing is until they address it 100% it won't go away and any chink in the statement will be niggled away at. Now it that "confident" isn't strong enough as it's still an "opinion". I know what I'd do if I were RT :))

I'm guessing he means no dividends

with the sp - I think we'd all agree on that :))

I'd be tempted to pull the whole string on his comments and stick them in front of them - I might well email them across latter to HUR when I have a minute and ask them what they can address.