Member Info for Blubay

objectively, the reverse is more often true

still, nice buying opportunity for anyone waiting

yes, obviously that's a step change development. Some of it will get priced into the share in advance as we get closer but I suspect most won't be realised until nearing completion or coming onstream. ARB is a high growth company but it's moving now beyond the stage of early growth. The more mature companies become the more they tend to get priced on results than future prospects (reverse for early stage ventures).

at the risk of repetition, that data indicates that half the trades were above the mid point of the spread and half were below. Make of it what you will.

Although the ups and downs are very steep, there has generally been more gain on the upside than loss on the downside overall (which I think is fair as the company both grows and hodls, increasing it's leverage). You'd hope to see that advantage really step up when Texas is completed.

I just wonder if FOMO will be 'once bitten twice shy' second time around, hence some conservatism. I suspect many PIs who would be into Argo are already in deep (and underwater). FOMO would need a lot of new PIs, and we've seen increased institutional holding, which tends to moderate volatility.

Yes, I haven't increased the leverage factor progressively, just used a constant, so I agree could be a bit light

Based on past observations that ARB tends to leverage upward movements of BTC (more steeply than a linear track on price of BTC) and the added value margin over BTC return that it's accumulated so far this year (about 20-30% better return than BTC), this is just wild speculation and a personal opinion about the hypothetical track that the SP might (or might not) take compared to BTC. Absolutely not financial advice, just for fun, or discussion, DYOR... https://www.tradingview.com/x/2henXYtp/

BTC ARB
40000 140
44000 182
50000 198
52000 215
56000 231
60000 248
64000 264
68000 281 (...maybe September/October ?)
72000 297
76000 314
80000 330

A £2bn Mcap before NAS listing is really not likely

Agreed, all starting to stack up. I think it's important to look beyond the positive market environment for BTC and distinguish what makes ARB distinctive. In general, miners are seen as a leverage on upside movements of BTC and ARB's growth plans should magnify that leverage (leverage on leverage) proportionally more than other miners (growth rather than size). There is also potential to become one of the largest players. I think the increasing hodl and comparatively low level of debt give ARB more choices as a growth company than some others. Then consider the capacity to diversify out from mining, whether through leasing deals, energy deals, building on Pluto, or grander things...

I think ARB has more growth and sustainability potential going forward than some of its competitors.

Post close was 26.50

The blues and reds on the LSE ticker here are not buys-sells, they’re recent trades above-below the mid price, good indication but not always the same thing

The £1.33 is a Net Asset Value estimate per share not an SP prediction. It’s also for all four drills combined. We’re on the first drill at Tai, if that produces a discovery then great, happy days, but still a long road to producing commercial helium. It’s a high-risk reward share although the operation has been derisked as far as these things can be so far. It will jump on news but don’t expect ‘the moon’ short term.

Hoping it stays down long enough for my weekly top up :-)

You’ll make more money on the reverse strategy

Usual rumour mill, ramp it up, then bring it down 2 hours before Tesla announcement to maximise return on the news bounce. Pure speculation, not a shred of substance in either the ramp rumour or the deramp rumour

It just doesn’t work like that. ARB was massively over bought early in the year relative to BTC price, it was later oversold but not to the same degree. History might repeat itself or buyers might be more cautious second time around, it’s impossible to say but rule #1 of investing… "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Google does not show the share price, it shows the price of most recent trades. You can see the post-close price on the stock exchange (15 minute delay during business hours)
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HE1/helium-one-global-ltd/company-page

It means that volatility or volume was too great to uncross the prices, so a pause is called in the auction to resolve that. It's unusual to see two in succession.

Nuts, why not sell when it dropped back from 28p the other day?