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It's literally a paste and edit from the RNS, rather old news but very welcome given the source of the sharing. Presumably this is all part of their general PR effort for the mining conference?

Where can we find this?

Loads of messages in the thread since earlier, but just to back track. We're waiting for the company to release more detailed information about the estimated commerciality of the Rukwa project (from the feasibility study or another competent person). As others have said, we've had a 2021 analysis of Rukwa basin prospective resources, prior to drilling, and we've had revised estimates of prospective resources at Tai in 2023. Just to be clear, these are all estimates of 'prospective reserves' (P-). That means estimates of resources yet to be discovered. We have not yet seen any confirmed or revised estimates of 'contingent' reserves (-C), or 'recoverable' unrisked reserves (-U), following discovery, at Tai or at Itumbula. So yes, they'll be in the modelling for the feasibility study and no doubt they've been withheld from the market for a good reason but the company has not yet explained why or given a timeline for their release (e.g. for reason of commercial sensitivity, or waiting for independent validation, etc). That's what we're waiting for, unless I've misunderstood?

HE1 haven't released any revised estimates though have they? Or any estimates of recoverable and contingent reserves? They've said the estimation requires complex subsurface modelling, which they've worked on internally, and they've said it doesn't fit wholly with traditional models. They've suggested there will be a CPR in time but haven't said when. We can only guess why they've withheld the estimates to this stage and hope they publish them in a timely way. No point in second guessing at this point.

"the numbers in the feasibility study and possibly also how the project will be funded into production, which is expected to be made public as soon as the ML is granted"

Why do expect these things to be published as soon as the ML is granted?

Yes, that's the kind of thing they need repeated for Itumbula, but to move beyond estimates of "Prospective Resources" to estimates of recoverable and contingent resources. At the moment the market still doesn't know what they're sitting on since the mixed messaging arising from announcements during the DST/EWT phase at Itumbula. All in good time I guess.

There would be a risk in publishing own estimates and then having them knocked back by a CPR, better to hold off for the validation or start low and have them revised upwards.

"isn't it the case that our He (and H) resource is a unique system, and will have to take a diffent approach to quantify it......?"

Yes, that's the challenge for any CPR to validate the reserve estimates against strict industry standard O&G benchmarks. The company will use their own complex modelling to try and combine assumptions about traditional trap seal reservoirs in the shallow and Karoo layers, plus novel assumptions about the generative fractured basement system. And if they needed to play it safe they could perhaps just validate the former as recoverable (smaller volume) using a traditional model and then add increased estimates from the latter as more speculative/contingent.

I agree, they’ll need a CPR (not just their own modelling) to present the investment/finance case to any potential funders. CEO has suggested there will be one and independent confirmation of reserves would a big confidence booster for the market.

My hunch was that they would prove up the Colorado project and leverage debt against that in the US capital market to prime initial development at Rukwa, to bring that to a similar maturity, but like anyone else’s I’ve no idea.

Honestly, who is going to sign a finance deal for tens of millions of dollars without a CPR, or knowing the terms of the SPV to be established with the TZ government? It’s also a requirement that the SPV approaches the TZ national banks as a first line of credit (if needed), and on terms to be approved by the government. It’ll be great if they pull a giant rabbit from the hat on ML day but I’m not sure we should expect it. Wouldn’t they have it all under wraps until the SPV was formed? Anyone have examples from other companies?

There seems to be a confusion in this thread between HE1’s ‘feasibility study’ and the ‘financial capability’ section in the ML application. They’re not the same thing. The FS will certainly set out the estimated recoverable/contingent reserves and the associated costs, demonstrating the commercial viability over time. The financial capability test is about the applicant (HE1) and its capacity to undertake mining development. It doesn’t require all the project funds to be already in place on day one of a ten year licence (that would be unusual). It’s more about whether the applicant is financially credible. As a London listed company with a strong history of raising capital and no debt there shouldn’t be any problem with that, and they can also refer to offtakers and banks but I don’t think the application requires a fully funded deal to be in place (otherwise many exploration companies would never be able to convert to ML on the due date, and it’s hard to imagine any funder concluding financial terms until there’s a licence and the terms of the SPV with the government are also known). They might have it all wrapped up in secret but being financially credible rather definitive should be plenty enough for the licence application.

Where does it say this? I thought the ‘financial capability’ test was about the applicant rather than the project (e.g. whether they have audited accounts, no defaults, and a proven record of raising capital for mining projects etc)?

Your title says HE1 but the story is about NHE?

If it’s any help Hemo, the CFO mentioned an estimated plant cost around $50m in the most recent online Q&A, not sure if that included any gathering infrastructure but it fits broadly with yours and HE1’s previous development plan estimates.

"You are pushing the idea that there is still a lot to be done on the financing, when it may well be all in place and ready to go once the ML is approved!"

And you're pushing the idea that it's all done and dusted and ready to go, without any evidence and contrary to anything the company has so far said. It's the same with all the posts here about the ML being 'fast tracked', or awarded after 'three weeks', or 'any day now, or before the US helium summit, or before the TZ mining conference. One day someone will be right but there's a constant stream of imaginaries setting up unrealistic expectations which then get traded on by the shorters when they don't materialise. It's fine to be optimistic, we all are, but if you want genuine company growth then it will more than likely happen on the timescales that the company themselves have presented to the market, which is commercial development in Colorado over the next 6-9 months and Rukwa within 12 months of receiving a licence, which they hope to get around three months after submission. I'll be as pleased as anyone if anything happens to accelerate either project but I can't see how posters here know more than the company. I'm very optimistic about Colorado and looking forward to more info about Rukwa.

That's exactly what I said Manisfesto, we're due lots of transformational news over the next 12 months, starting this quarter with drill permits, spud dates and drilling in Colorado, and hopefully the award of the ML for Rukwa. I'd be surprised if they announced the funding for Rukwa development before Q1 though, as there are stages to go through after the ML is awarded before the government can sign off the financial terms (setting up the SPV, negotiating with the TZ banks etc). But each step announced should help the price, starting this quarter, and all the way through the next 12 months.

Yes indeed. The fundamentals of the company are about to change radically, if the commercial development plans for Colorado and then Rukwa work out. There's a whole bunch of news milestones coming up, drilling permits, spud dates, flow test results, off taker agreements, etc etc. Publishing a development plan is one step, financing it is a step, making it happen on time and budget is another step. We have two steps forward for Colorado so far, and just about to start the third but we're still waiting for news about steps one and two for Rukwa. At each stage of de-risking you would hope to see the SP rise with market confidence. Plenty to go for over the next year or so.

Cat, just pause from your outrage for a moment. HE1 is currently an early stage small cap exploration company. It has no current income, it has never had any income, none. It does not currently possess the means to meet its financial obligations for a period of 12 months. Consequently, by simple accounting definition alone, it is not ‘a going concern’. That’s just a fact. On the plus side, that’s all about to change if the revenue comes in from Colorado and the financing comes in for Rukwa. As news of those things arrives I have every confidence the share price will respond (insert rockets where desired).

You clearly haven't read or understood any of my posts Cat, just constant abuse and obscenities towards people on the same side of the trade as you, it's mad. I'm long on HE1 and always have been, because I believe in the company's chances of breaking out to generate real value in the medium term (and hopefully one day escape from the cesspit that is AIM). I want the SP to move up not down but I have zero interest in ramping or de-reamping any share for trade. If I was interested in trading I would sold my shares before now. I believe the SP will be considerably higher a year from now, when I believe HE1 will be a gas producer and possibly even a going concern. I don't believe Rukwa could ever be funded by a placement, it's far too much for them to raise, but obviously they'll likely do some kind of raise within any 12 month period in which they're not generating any income, every AIM company does. I don't see that as any kind of problem as long as value is being added to the SP. In the event that an angel JV partner comes in with all the capex and additional sweetners for working capital then happy days, but there would be a significant trade off in terms of gas price discount or equity in the SPV. More likely, the financing will come from a mixed arrangement involving the TZ banks, JV/farm partners, and HE1's own resources/investors. I suppose they might also consider selling the Rukway project if they can add sufficient value to it, and use the proceeds to move on more easily developed prospects in the US or elsewhere, but they've said they want to remain independent for as long as possible.