Member Info for Blubay

"There’s a lot of subtle assumption and presumption going on here now"

pot / kettle ?

Just to recap, all the site works were complete at the Jackson-31 and Jackson-04 before the announcement on 15 January, and all casing had been delivered by then. They were only waiting on the rig due to arrive early last week, give or take the weather conditions, and you can see on the blurry satellite imagery that something large (probably rig?) did arrive at Jackson-31 at least before the weekend. But no way of knowing without getting a spy or a drone up there ;-)

I don't have an opinion as I have no evidence one way or the other. I assume they intend to keep on track to hit the drilling season and are actively mitigating any risks to that timeline within their control, while cutting costs wherever possible to maximise their cash runway. There's no reason to assume further delay in Colorado. BNL were quick to update on the weather delay and they haven't said anything more so the market assumption is that the previous update broadly holds. I wasn't really expecting them to update until the short drill is complete at Jackson-31, or possibly both drills, and then update on the schedule as suggested in the RNS.

I don’t think there’s any puzzle to require such explanation. They’ve simply issued call for EOIs in line with their planned project schedule, to retain a chance of completing the commissioning work by end of Q1, and hoping to complete the licensing in same timeframe. They can’t actually tender without the ML, and they’ll have to set up the new SPV company along with government and any finance partners. It just makes sense to have potential suppliers lined up to go

This has come up many times. You can't read much into those movements. The SP is so low that the bid/ask spread is 25% one way and 20% the other at $0.004 - $0.005.

Remember they've already spent six months with consultants on specifying and commissioning designs for the processing plant. I can't imagine there's huge scope for competitor bids on that. Likewise, the main drilling services will likely tender to whichever of the usual suspects is available, but there'll be more openness for locally based site services and supplies etc

"To issue an EOI with such a short period to respond would indicate a couple of things to me."

I think you're reading a lot into that. Normally it just means there's a limited number of potential bidders in the market and the EOI call is mainly ticking off the requirement to perform a charade of open tender when the likely selection is largely predictable.

“Is it possible that the mining licence approval will be contingent on the funding stream from BNL actuating finance agreements with others for Rukwa?”

My understanding was that they were hoping to avoid staking Colorado assets to finance Rukwa, although I thought that might be an option. I think Pete mentioned this from chat at the AGM.

“Strange no update on the Colorado drill. Clearly they haven't been able to start yet”

The previous ASX/RNS seemed to suggest an update on schedule after drilling the first two wells, but hard to say. If progress was no longer in line with existing announcements to market then they should update (as they quickly did last time).

I’m not sure that’s conclusive as we don’t have the reservoir estimates. I think it’s more a case that more wells were needed to make it a commercial proposition . However, the proposed budget hasn’t really changed from the initial 6 well plan ($92m) to the current 25-30 well plan ($75-100m).

"Just got a reply from IWeb. Our family have 6 accounts with them, over 3m and the reply is the same."

Then again, you have £3m in 6 portfolios and no annual fees! Limited additional services but they are cheap.

Unfortunately, it's very typical of capital raises on AIM. The brokers will ask around and build the book and the investors will tell them that they're not that interested, or not at that price, and the brokers will also have a vested interest. They come back and tell the company what the offer price should be, and the Nomad advises the company to accept it. Then it's massively oversubscribed and the equivalent shares are turned over by the 'supportive long term investors' in advance for a tidy margin or traded off by new buyers. It's just the way it works. That's why AIM exists, and companies only list on AIM if they have no other way to raise market capital, so they're basically over a barrel to the brokers and the banks. But it does work and many companies wouldn't survive or mature without it.

Give them this page link

https://www.bookbuild.live/deals/L7PW01/authorised-intermediaries

I bought quite a few after the 0.25p raise, it was a bargain.

What do you think the deep ground water in Rukwa will be contaminated with? There is no evidence that it's contaminated and it's already used for domestic extraction and irrigation. I imagine the ESIA question would be more about the quantity of extraction and whether it can be managed sustainably without depleting any local community and agricultural users or game reserves. The water management plan will be a significant part of the project, and may even be revenue generating if they can sell it, or provided as a social benefit to agricultural area development.

The implication of the last ASX/RNS was that they would update on drilling schedule after completing the two drills, but we might get something from the first one perhaps.

"Just to put things into perspective.....42 % down if you've been in this share a full year ."

Just to put things into perspective..... 340% up if you've been in this share a year and three days ;-)

How do you propose they do that if posters use disposable email addresses and IP masking?

On the other hand, first revenues from Colorado could be coming up in next quarter.

The company’s projection has been for first revenues within approximately 12 months of ML award.