Member Info for BlackSwan

Alaric - Yes " forensic analysis - I havë never actually seen such an detailed forensic analysis in one post on this board or on III of what/why actually went on over the SunTrust debacle, some, in fact, seem deeply suspicious over what actually did occur in order to bring this matter to the satisfactory state of affairs that we have today - I don't know what resolving this issue even really cost Midwestern/SLE.

I remember years ago reading on the Canadian company forum that there was a reluctance amongst posters to relinquish any share in their Nigerian leases as they were perceived to of great potential value to their company, that in itself seemed like a good reason for SLE to go ahead with the Nigerian adventure, let's hope SLE can achieve that value..

What is done is done hopefully to SLE advantage, now we have to further guess what/how further reorganisations will take place?

PC01 - The buyback or dividend talk by SLE/OF always seemed to me to be a bit of a sop to shareholders in an effort to improve their rather tawdry performance over the last years, especially with respect to being forced to raise cash by issuing shares at half the price than was anticipated. I liked your clear layout of our possible options, personally I would prefer option 2 - It can buy the stock back and hold them in treasury - which would seem to eventually benefit the company directly in the form of working capital and indirectly all of us as the company embarks upon the considerable task of reworked wells/new wells/new pipelines/new offshore oil/gas loading terminal to bypass the heavily pilfered routes (I am given to understand is as much as 40% of throughflows) that supply the current export terminal at Barry Island.

PC01 - Thanks, exactly some good points, well presented if I may say so - would it be that others on this BB could learn from your example and avoid what has been described here as obnoxious behaviour, pity really as it does tend to detract rather from the occasional real information and sometimes interesting points they make.
SP - Currently moving upwards, should continue to do so as per Stephen 54321 forecasts.

Frus - maybe we should start a campaign to bring back Links to the LSE BB now that should cheerfully recreate the anodyne world of 1300p we used to inhabit - note he seems to post on iii and then mainly wisely restricts himself to posting direct published information and who can blame him. Gad, it's still 40C here waiting for the winter rains!

br - Thanks good news then - following the direct sell to market option, what is stopping us from starting to sell onto the international market directly avoiding slow (none) payers such as NNPC?

PC01 - tend to agree with your comment - the value should be based on the potential and perceived value of the company exploration assets. - the current perceived valuation you could say is a flash in the pan in that when the loan capital is fully repaid including the accrued interest we are then left with income generated from our oil/gas/services assets from OML18/Barryroe which if they succeed in achieving their assumed potential should be considerable. I am still skeptical about whether dividends and share buybacks are the best way forward for the company instead I would prefer to see company positive cash flows reinvested in the long-term cash generating oil/gas/services assets of the company.

Income from the increasing oil price above $55 will I assume have zero affect on our cash flow from our current levels of oil production as long as the current hedge remains in position - it is my understanding that we currently (have to) sell directly to NNPC at a $55 price - on my first reading of the SP Angel report it seemed we would be NNPC captive suppliers in perpetuity however in the same report there was a statement that we would have the possibility to sell on our own behalf to the international market, which if current oil prices continue to increase above $55 and assuming we could hedge only part of our production to meet current financial agreements we could generate substantially increased revenues should the world remain in its current turbulent state, having said that though before we go down that route it's probaly best to get the monies that NNPC owe us before we start to give them some competition.
The SP - I am still looking for 100p before the end of the year given the latest RNS news regarding Suntrust's removal from the equation and about further company reorganizations.

bluerill - Good post - Sun Trust gone - agree with the last two paragraphs of your post - insider strategic and reverse take over.

Alaric WOW didn't take you for such a blinkered personality - afraid we are in for more of the same old sport current share price seems to agree on that Cheers.

Alaric - as a long-term shareholder of SLE I should thank you for your positive postings on the company but there comes a time when current reality should be faced not as in the past as a reality-based as is often referred to on this BB as jam tomorrow. The elephant in the room here is, of course, the Nigerian government themselves, even major oil companies have senior vice presidents spending their 5-year tenures in Nigeria chasing the governments for back payments for oil already produced, so we are well aware that we are not the only company here in this financial predicament. You have to ask yourself what company would pay as much as 17% to borrow money against a collateral on its own shares - how is the company still in existence after it's previous partners (Canadians) came to bankruptcy - you do have to realise that the game as played by all resource-rich but cash-strapped countries are if you want our resources you come and put your money on the table and if the project is successful we all share in that success if not your on your own - companies like Eroton to whom the Nigerian government has awarded the responsibility of developing these marginal fields which were forcibly relinquished from the oil majors are the bait for investors to enter the market in order to accelerate the development of these hitherto dormant resources. We have seen with the recent NNPC joint venture pipeline contracts that NNPC money is available directly if they decide to go ahead with a project however payments to Eroton don't seem to come under this category whilst government legislative procedures are mired down in other political/social costs as they struggle to run the country.
I have already posted that to OF credit he has YET not been drawn deeper into putting more of our money on the table at this time and I agree - cutting a long story short we should enjoy our current positive cash flow as a virtual banker to Eroton whilst minimizing our financial/technical input until the NNPC money starts to flow into the company and only then rethink the participation level we want to take in this undoubtedly valuable asset.- a comment - Nigerian payments when they come will not appear as a lump sum on the table.

PC01 - Agreed - "it wasn't really was it" - big picture is still unchanged - Eroton is in financial trouble - Suntrust court case still unclear - considerable work needs to be done on OML18 - my opinion is that zero work should be embarked upon until NNPC pay the back money owed - SLE should sit on the income from the loan notes and don't get involved in share buybacks, there will be no dividends until Eroton has achieved some kind of financial stability.
To OF credit he for some reason known only unto himself decided to pull back from the reverse take over at this time and I agree - to top it all we have a $55 hedge now not $90 so assuming we are currently only selling to NNPC they are on a roll - afraid we should brace ourselves for more of the same - yes I am a long-term shareholder for six years now and will continue to hold, things can't get much more difficult and we currently have Barryroe - hope OF doesn't sell our holding and throw all the money into Nigeria - it's the type of thing he does !!

redeyemines - MM! thanks to the first thoughtful post I have read concerning this RNS - posts in the main have been copy and paste (as if we can't read it ourselves) - looking forward to some more implications/opinions such as yours.
SLE share price hasn't really moved but on the other hand, neither has PVR tad disappointing in general.

It happens latest from the other website.

ShareProphets under cyber attack – thank you for your support: we will not be silenced
By Tom Winnifrith | Monday 24 September 2018

It happens on the net - sometimes I have difficulty in accessing LSE site via the URL - sometimes I get a warning about using the LSE sight - couple that with who is really who posting and with what motives on LSE site certainly and makes for an interesting world, to say the least.

Thanks Alaric - sorry about the spelling - got profits on the mind - your correct it's the well known site with spelling as you indicate

SP Angel/Zac Phillips report access use copy and paste for links given below then substitute the stars by typing shareprofits - well worth a read - wonder if gets past the ???

The SP Angel oil and Gas Note San Leon Zac Phillips - for those who are interested is at the link below - scan down to SLE and click on HERE hope it works for you. Posting and hope LSE don't block.

https://www.*************.com/views/24131/san-leon-at-4475p-worth-101p-to-120p-says-sp-angel-in-100-page-report-you-aren-t-meant-to-read-peasants

Alaric - Yes, I have had this pdf report on my Google drive since the date of issue - The SP Angel Oil and Gas Note San Leon Energy Game changer 30 September 2016 - been a constant reference - if only "things" had gone to plan and to schedule - it did lead me to believe despite my initial doubts about our getting involved in Nigeria - lets hope Nigeria still has the possibility of being a game changer - the links you provide don't seem to be working at the moment - if I find a link will post, the SP Angel report is the nearest thing to the Bible regarding SLE plans the OML18 project development.

Albania - Funny that you should mention it Alaric sometimes I imagine OF deciding to back out of Nigeria one way or another and to announce SLE is looking for farm in partner for the development of our Albania licence which as you know is sitting pretty well on one or the other of the new proposed east west pipeline routes to the EU from the eastern mediterranean (Zohr Field complex) or further east from Tajikistan - guess this is one reason OF has retained the licence could keep us all on our toes for another five years - onwards and upwards.

Wow - Alaric your over reacting sport of course we are not depressed, just a tad battered and jaded after 7 years of seeing the share price continually decline and project after project fall by the wayside and who could blame us long term investors of course we still have hope or we would have been long gone from this investment but 7 years takes its toll - appreciate your current exuberant attitude and would do so even more when the market at last wakes up to SLE potential and kicks SLE on to 100p plus in the near term personally I am anticipating minimum 400p within the next 12 months until then we can only believe in what we see reflected in the current market share price.

Pipeline damages seem to be significantly down and observing actual Barry Island tanker loadings there seems to be a lot of activity - hope some of the LNG/oil is some of ours?

The NNPC said it recorded a 48.21 per cent reduction in the rate of pipeline vandalism which fell to 166 from 224 vandalized points in the previous month.According to the report, the Aba-Enugu pipeline segment accounted for 78 vandalized points, representing 84.78 per cent of total vandalized points on the nation’s network of products pipelines.

Frus and others including myself have put up with the machinations of OF for years - guess some of us are suffering a degree of burn out with SLE/OF and posters whose main aim seems is to argumentatively entertain themselves at the expense of others on this BB - Alaric latest comment does seem to sum our rather depressing situation - "using their figures would mean effectively our SP currently values OML 18 and loan notes all but at zero!" - which would appear to be true given the current share price level and lack of any recent movement in the SLE share price, one could even go further and suggest OML18 has a negative value which itself is rather frus trating - may I suggest we all give ourselves some slack under the present circumstances and hope for positive news to come out of the AGM that just may change the markets attitude towards the company even at this late stage in it's rather depressing history.