Member Info for blackstout

CUDA purchased for $19.15m!

Might be of interest:-

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sees-5-Gasoline-130-Brent-By-Year-End.html

The wax build up in the wells has been brought about by remodeling the reservoir In order to optimise output at a better rate than 4,000/5,000 bopd. In doing so it has also brought about an unforeseen change in the behavior of the wax formation.

It's a relatively small issue and is being resolved by cleaning out the wax using imported condensate in both pumping and flowing wells.

The condensate can be recaptured after use so
after the initial purchase of the condensate costs are limited to labour and plant in carrying out the exercise.

Under the current senior debt agreement and oil hedging arrangement anything over 2100 bopd should produce positive cashflow as things stand. I see that milestone being achieved in a matter of weeks now given the adaption work is progressing well.

Under the new RBL both revenue and costs should be much improved brought about by recalibrating heading and better terms. Positive cashflow should be further improved if the new commercial finance incorporates a revolver facility and COPL invokes it.

Guys it's been a while ago now but a knowledgeable poster on here gave us an excellent appraisal on the regulations that have to be met during the Sage Goose nesting season.

I intended to take a copy of it but there were so many posts I couldn’t find it when I came to do it.

If you're reading this would you mind reposting it please. Alternatively if any of you happen to have a comprehensive set of the requirements and restrictions would you post them as well please.

I'd be very grateful for any commentry.

GLA.

LLP yes your correct.

Southwestern COPL's affiliate has a right to "set~off" it's claim against any amounts due to CUDA and or the Receiver for breach off contract.

The claim will be accruing until it's settled either in the acquisition to acquire CUDA or by agreement or by third party resolution.

It's unlikely the Receiver will be receiving any payments until it's settled.

IMHO.

Infinity8

Can you please explain the spend of £650m to £750m.

I don't understand?

All the best.

Persimmon if it isn't obvious to you by now it should be.
Reabold isn't in a position to mount an RTO. Reabold Directors will know that better than you or I.

Promisory notes are worthless from a company who has little revenue at least in the short term to satisfy them.

Reabold has insufficient cash to be meaningful and any equity raise would only be a token against what's going to be roughly a £150m RTO cost.

I doubt we'll have much longer to wait to see which one of is is right. But for now let's agree to disagree about suspension.

Persimmon thanks for commenting.

My simple question remains however. Which is ~ how do you imagine It would be possible for Reabold to raise the £150m or so needed to acquire the remaining 50.01% of the share capital in Corallian?

I'm familiar with the complexities of and the procedures involved in RTO's. So there's no need to elaborate on those.

Persimmon you said in your post early yesterday morning:~

"Fait Accompli to members of Corallian and immediate suspension of trading"

In the FCA process the purchaser would be required to demonstrate it has the necessary "means" to pay the acquisition price.

So let's say the value of Corallians assets were £300m in total including say £250m for Victory.

How do you see RBD being in a financial position to pay £300m + costs for Corallian please?

Accepting that RBD owns 49.99% that would still leave leave £150m + costs net for RBD to find. Having very little income to service a debt of the magnitude needed and no change of raising that amount from equity or even a combination of the two . How do you see that possibly working ?

These are genuine questions. If you're statement yesterday was wrong or perhaps simply made in haste then please just say. Otherwise your explanation would be very much of interest.

I'm not interested in clashes between posters on here. They serve no gain for me.

Persimmon why would there be a suspension in trading?

Persimmon why a suspension of trading?

Thanks deemule. That seems a fair assumption.

With prices under all sorts of pressure Victory in particular must be a very attractive asset now.

Does anyone know where we are with this from last October?

"Reabold owns 49.99% of Corallian Energy Limited.

Corallian has decided to conduct a formal review of the various strategic options available to maximise value for all its shareholders.

Corallian has engaged an independent financial adviser, H&P Advisory Limited ("Hannam & Partners"), to conduct the strategic review. As part of the review, Hannam & Partners will approach third parties, who could potentially be interested in making an offer for up to 100% of the fully diluted share capital in Corallian.

Corallian holds a 100% interest in the Victory gas discovery. A Competent Persons Report (CPR) has recently been completed by RPS Energy Limited. RPS estimates a total Victory field 2C or best / mid case technically recoverable resource of 179bcf dry gas1. Corallian's updated 2C economic valuation (NPV10) of Victory, based on an historical average gas price valuation of 50p/therm, has increased from £146 million to £193 million."

I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring if we're looking at potential valuations. Starting with a look at the potential revenue and profit at the planned optimisation period just on the Federal Deep Units in say four years time.

From the data we have 51sq mls @ 3wells/sq ml which gives us 153 wells in total.

The wells should produce between 1000 and 3000 bopd we're told. So say using 2000 bopd average we get.

An annual production of 2000 bopd X 365 for each well which is 730k bopy.

Total production from 153 wells is therefore 153 X 730k bopd giving us a total annual production of 112m bopy.

If WTI is $83/brl that's about $80brl net. So on that assumption annual revenue is going to be 112m bopy x $80 which is $8.96bn

If we're bullish and say COPL's WI is going to be 85% then COPL's revenue would be $7.62bn. So to my mind on that basis I have about $3.80bn as COPL's annual profit before tax and roughly $2.70 bn net profit or "earnings" after tax.

If that's right and you use a p/e ratio of 15 we get a Market Cap contribution for COPL of 15 X $2.70bn which is $40.50bn. $40.50bn is approximately £30.00bn at today's exchange rate.

£30.00bn is close to a 45,000% increase to COPL's current Market Cap. Or 450 bags from here in say four years time.

If we allow for some equity release and say COPL might have 250m shares in issue then Federal Deep's contribution to COPL's SP could potentially be 12000p.

If you do the calculation using an Operating Netback and use $50/ brrl with no more debt and WTI at around $83/brl your answer should be about the same.

This is just a paper calculation for the Federal Deep Units in about four years time as things stand. However I'm in little doubt things will change. The price of oil will undoubtedly change which will make a huge difference for instance. As will restructuring COPL's current borrowing facility which I believe we're about to see.

Just my take.

Another Wall St. Bank sees oil prices hitting $100/brl soon.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Morgan-Stanley-Jumps-On-The-100-Oil-Bandwagon.html

Guys I very much doubt I’m the only one who's having difficulty reasoning how much COPL's new Federal Deep discovery means to both the company and more significantly us as shareholders. What I sincerely believe is that it's very significant. Very significant indeed!
I've seen estimates posted on here saying the SP could quickly run to anything between 400p and 2500p. That’s some difference. But perhaps it’s understandable prior to the issue of the Ryder Scott report.
Ryder Scott has a duty to report by the end of March .So they're likely to be processing the data now. It's such a staggering discovery and the location couldn’t be much better. I believe the specialists working on the assessment will be equally excited by it as we should be. I’ve little doubt they will be keen to issue their report as soon as possible, notwithstanding the official due date as I see it.
Just for proportionality BP and Rosneft were the only companies to have discovered over one billion barrels of oil last year and that was due to their exposure in Russia which yielded 48% of the world’s discovered resources in the period.
Overall, the volume of discovered resources on earth last year was just 6.6 billion barrels. The discoveries in the period were mainly concentrated in a small number of large fields in Russia in locations nowhere near as attractive as COPL's. Outside Russia, discoveries were just 3.4 billion barrels and COPL’s new Federal Deep discovery could be equal to half that already.
The discovery is sure to attract not only multi-nationals but it’s bound to be recognised by the US Government too. If it’s as big as I think it is it’ll be the largest discovery in the US for over a decade.
This post is not meant to be a ramp. All I'm saying is do your own research and be careful if you're selling or shorting. Awareness of the discovery is growing and the Ryder Scott report may well be released before its long-stop date. Given its significance they could be making it their priority!
AIMHO and good luck to all genuine supporters.

Stebol that's a great post!

AM stands wrongly accused of many things and not recognised enough for his achievements in my view.

GLA.

Smilemore can I please ask you not to stop posting on here.

You would be sorely missed by many.

You may feel as though your work is done bit your not half way through yet!

Dr Jekyll I couldn't agree more and you and I are completely aligned.

You're so right to consider the broader aspects. The Government's interests, introducing new skills, and GR stepping to one side and so on are profoundly more important than the financial aspects in my view. The "potential" in Prem will not be realised unless we change the way we do things and the way the company is run.

I see from Silemore's first post that he's placed a high sell order on his stock at the moment.

That's an excellent measure! It's prevents MM's borrowing and using them.

We could all do worse than take a leaf out of his book and do the same in my view!

GLA genuine holders.