Member Info for blackgold00

"Your view is certainly not supported by AEX's own historical experience."

well i don't know about that, but it is supported by the general Cash Call Protocol.

https://integrity-audit.com/cash-calls/

"To begin, why do we have cash calls in industry? In essence, the Operator isn’t supposed to make money over the Non-Operators just by virtue of their role as Operator, but they aren’t supposed to lose money either. The financing costs of capital projects are a very real expenditure and carry a significant burden to an Operator when the amounts involved get high enough. If an Operator has paid cash to the vendors involved in a capital project but they don’t receive the Joint-Operators’ (Non-Operators’) share of the expenditures until a couple of months later, then the Operator has incurred a financing cost associated with carrying the Joint-Operators’ interests."

my understanding re. (drilling/seismic cost) is thing are paid for upfront, as demanded by the contractor. big money involved especially with drilling.

I guess SCIR will want to do a deal with their 25% holding, before the 3D seismic starts in earnest and cash-calls resulting from the budgeted expenditure of $23 million, start to unfold and become due. I expect we'll be hearing news from SCIR fairly soon regarding a deal or not, maybe who ever is interested might want to wait for the 3D results before committing, but then i suppose a its all about the price for a deal to be struck.

i would suggest, from this news, we can infer the license is in the bag. How's that ?

first time they've mentioned a date for first gas, i think

" Assuming a successful outcome with the forthcoming Chikumbi-1 well, first gas from the project is anticipated to occur in September 2024."

testing the site for what i wonder

http://aminex-plc.com/

http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/TEST.pdf

i don't take a lot of notice of their reporting i guess todays 0.425 transactions are buys

https://orcaenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NEWS-RELEASE-Reserves-2021-March-2-final-1.pdf

BACKGROUND T0 THE 2020 YEAR END RESERVES EVALUATION
"The Company initiated a comprehensive review of the Songo Songo subsurface field mapping, reservoir simulation
modeling and well performance in 2020 to better understand the remaining potential of the Songo Songo (SS) field to the
end of the primary license (October 2026) and assess the remaining resource potential beyond October 2026."

"The 2020 studies included a detailed review of the seismic data base and a subsequent remapping of the SS field utilizing
third party consultants to develop a new static subsurface model. The new (2020) static model was imported into the
reservoir simulation (dynamic) environment, and parameterization investigated to obtain a model history match
against observed well performance (production and pressure). The 2020 updated static and preliminary dynamic
(simulation) modeling results were provided to McDaniels as part of the normal year end reserve process."

Key findings of the 2020 subsurface review:
• A reduction of mapped original gas initially in place (OGIP) in the greater Songo Songo field area, primarily in the
Northern area of the Songo Songo field. The mapped reduction in Songo Songo OGIP did not materially impact
the core producing portion of the field or the remaining reserves to the end of the current license in October
2026. However, the reduction in OGIP is expected to reduce the potential recoverable gas resources beyond
2026.
• As the field matures, having produced ~ 450 Bcf to year end 2020, well performance and pressure analysis
supports the emergence of compartments within the SS main field which will require additional study and
increased future capital, prior to and beyond October 2026 to optimally develop the field. To date, three
compartments (SS Core, SS South and SS East) in the main field have been identified from the current well set
and the associated pressure data obtained in 2020. Currently, the wells in the south and east compartments are
shut in pending well work over programs. The Company is currently planning a 2021 onshore multi-well workover
program to replace a tubing string in SS 10 (SS Core) and, subject to certain approvals, will include the reactivation
of the currently shut-in wells (SS3 and SS4) in the eastern compartment. The south compartment would require
an offshore rig to remediate and restore production from the currently shut in SS7 well. Reactivation of SS7 will
be evaluated for potential inclusion in any future offshore well activity to optimize mobilization and shared
services costs. "

" In 5 years they could develop Nyuni from the proceeds from Ntorya. Sounds like a long time, but it's not really when you think of the gaps between previous drills"

well yes, but would that kind of timescale get the support from the TPDC/Tanz Gov with their future gas development plans, not just for Tanzania's internal domestics growth, but also the plans to export gas via new pipe-line's to Kenya and Uganda.

(Renewed Interest in Transporting African Natural Gas with Pipelines)
https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/renewed-interest-transporting-african-natural-gas-pipelines

"A JV is a dilution to them"
yes matherdj, but then again i suppose that depends on the terms of the deal.

"I wouldn't be suprised to see the asset reduced by a % to them for cash"

yes could be if no deal, i mean without the NYUNI license costs, how much $ is needed to bridge the( 3 year?) gap to meaningful Ntorya funds, $5 million ?
The big question for me at the moment then, is what is happening with the NYUNI PSA extension, along with the summitted 3 D work-program, with Aminex as 93% holder and operator, would come with considerable costs, and the question of how they intend to fund it. merger anyone ???
slide 21
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/Corporate%20Presentation%20Oct%202018.pdf

sorry, meant descent, but no doubt he is decent

matherdj "A merger would make sense for PI's, but not for the Zubairs. If it does happen it would be a massive signal of AEX being able to have some control over its own future."

30% of Aminex, well maybe its interesting to note, that since the Board Restructuring, out of the three directors left only one is of Zubair decent, "James Lansdell is Senior Legal Counsel at The Zubair Corporation."

"The last interview that Katherine Roe gave a few weeks ago, there was no mention of M & A activity"

not seen that one Aimster, can you post a link, thanks

all we know is there's more than one Tanzy gas player in the background that have publicly made known their intensions of either a sale or merger/acquisition of sorts, and looking at Wentworths strategy you can see they have a desire could even be a need to grow their asset base from where they are, so just maybe they can see (within the mix of assets) a company can emerge, that not only would be well funded, in the short and long term, but would also have great potential for growth

Wentworth
OUR STRATEGY
Our strategy is to grow the Company beyond our current asset base and deliver shareholder value through asset; free cash flow and net income growth; and ultimately dividends with capital appreciation.

We intend to do this through a focused M&A mandate which primarily looks to leverage our differentiated capabilities, simpler Corporate platform and long-lived Tanzanian revenue generating asset.

" I do feel some sort of fund raising and maybe as soon as this week"

i shouldn't think so fjones, not just weeks from their Strategic Update, when they stated
"To take advantage of opportunities provided by the Ruvuma Farm-Out, avoid the need for further dilution, and improve shareholder value, the Company has been working on several important strategic initiatives. As part of these initiatives, the Company is restructuring the Board and further cutting costs."

i still think a merger of sorts is still being worked on.

"Not so BG you need a commercial agreement with the Local Governing authority and In Tanzania that means a GSA. 100%. "

Crusty, when i say " commerciality is established " i mean proving-up enough producible gas to warrant the development of the Ntorya gas field, of course this needs to be established before any consideration of field development/GSA.

not an expert matherdj you could be right, but i think once commerciality is established and development/gsa license granted, then the development becomes certain, and resource can be reclassified.

Crusty "how do we get to those sp catalysts "

the thing is "APT plans to spud the Chikumbi-1 well in Q1 2022 and to submit the FFD before the end of 2022" once the development is accepted and given the go ahead, the Ntorya Contingent Resources will move to reserves and Aminex's 25% will be worth considerably more. a catalysts for a higher valuation.

Crusty, we are not talking big bucks to bridge the gap to the substantial revenue Ntorya will provide