Member Info for blackgold00

A good post from Ufufu, from the Telegram Group, hope he doesn't mind me sharing.

Ufufuo

"Last thought for now…

"It was back in 2017 that the share price hit about 7.5p…during the NT2 drill."

"Things went south fast when it became clear that the promised back-to-back drill of NT3 (now CH1) had been put on ice."

"Plenty has changed since then.  Vastly improved macro picture (particularly within Tanzania).  Reduced %age ownership of Ruvuma.  Asset now understood to be much, much larger (about 6000% larger according to APT’s last estimates).  The free carry. Etc, etc."

"Funny thing is, back then, we hit ~7.5p but there was no plan for how we would get gas to market.  We didn’t have money to do that.  There was no GSA.  No agreed Full Field Development Plan (remember that’s fully approved now too).  No clarity on a pipeline from Ntorya- let alone confirmation that the route was sorted, land secured, funding in place and detailed engineering design in progress.  No potential mini LNG for Ntorya as another route to market.  The 3D seismic hadn’t been done, etc."

The years of delays - caused largely by the previous Tanzanian President’s administration - and the loss of income from Kiliwani sapped the share price."

"The point is, the market was happy to value Aminex at 7.5p based on the asset (again, understood to be much larger now), the excitement of the drill and the prospect of the massive target at CH1.  All with little or no clarity on route to market, funding for that, etc."

The delays have destroyed belief in any timeline presented - understandably."

"If they can start to increase the rate of progress and news flow, confidence will build and the share price will respond accordingly.  In many ways the project is in a much better place now than in 2017.  So, many multiples of current share price should be very achievable."

"The Development License is the last big piece of paperwork to get out of the way.  They must surely then have no reason not to crack on with development."

"Hopefully 2024 will be our year.  Finally!"

Most of the investment money I have put into Aminex has been put in, about the last year.

Yes fingers crossed development licence news soon 🤞🤞

" At the signing today, the Tanzanian authorities expressed the importance of energy security for Tanzania and its people and the development of Ntorya is crucial to the provision of much-needed natural gas. The authorities also indicated that the Development Licence will be received very soon. We will provide a further update to the market on the progress of the other Ruvuma workstreams in due course."

Yes Crusty, but hopefully not to long a wait now. 🙂

"Aminex now anticipates early issue of the Development Licence which will allow the award of a rig contract and enable the drilling of Chikumbi-1 and the workover of Ntorya-1. The testing of Ntorya-2 is now scheduled for mid-year using an in-country mobile test unit."

" The authorities also indicated that the Development Licence will be received very soon. We will provide a further update to the market on the progress of the other Ruvuma workstreams in due course."

I guess the news didn't suit the short term drill junkies, well not just yet, but it will. Lol

Yes agree Baramara, let's see what the CPR brings, I think alot of the final decisions/agreements/signatures have been waiting on it.

"Any idea what price per share ARA would offer?"

I do not see that as a very likely outcome

"fictitious dates " ?

I see that as maybe misplaced (over inthusiasm) by some government ministers, I mean what some were saying last year back in June was obviously unachievable. And it's interesting that now some ministers have been replaced?

The last time we had a CPR, we got the news of ARA Farm-In to the Ruvuma PSA, so I wouldn't be surprised to get some sort of corporate news following the CPR ?

Mr Moi, Aminex are not running the show, they can't say anything until the operator ARA informs them

Also, we could get the the first insight into the recourse potential of the Jarasic, yes all exciting stuff, shouldn't be long now before they're ready to start release news, and/as all the time this has been going on the demand for gas has been growing.

"We look forward to receiving a revised CPR based on the high-quality data achieved from the acquisition of the Ruvuma 3D seismic survey that will permit a complete revision of gas reserve and resource potential; "

Nice man

"The results of the interpretation will be released by an independent third party company in the form of a CPR."

"This usually takes a month, so we should hear about the CPR by the end of the month, if not then by February"

Wondered, yes agree, though I think its possible we could get an earlier release of the CPR findings than you anticipate. Of course time will tell. 🙂

"The entire 3D seismic data processed interpretation will be completed in Q4 2023, permitting a total revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field. Moreover, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd has been contracted to produce an updated CPR before the end of this year."

ah yes maybe, lol, though i did find a load of ****les just the other day, down at starcross, they looked like little gems on the beach and tasted yummy yummy. yes and you too, have a great christmas rojo

Yes, I'm feeling extremely confident, just like I was at the start of 2023. Yes this year Rodney 😃😅

Merry Christmas one and all

Well I've often wondered what they plan re the workover at NT-1, we know the well hit the very edge of the Ntorya gas field with only a 3 metre net pay zone, and floweg gas 20mmcfd. als they were planning to side-track the well into a thicker part of the pay zone to try to increase the flow, that was before they decided to drill the NT-2 well.

So maybe they're planing a side track for NT 1 to increase the gas flow ?

"AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - "

Another AEX ?

We can only but hope Northern, this from the half year report

" The entire 3D seismic data processed interpretation will be completed in Q4 2023, permitting a total revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field. Moreover, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd has been contracted to produce an updated CPR before the end of this year."

Referring to the wording of this and last extension I do believe

Ruvuma Farm-Out Update and Additional Funding

30 September 2020

"Aminex announces that the parties to the Ruvuma Agreement have, at Aminex's request, agreed to extend the long stop date for satisfaction of the remaining conditions to the Farm-Out from 30 September 2020 to 15 October 2020. "

"Aminex remains hopeful that Tanzanian Government approval of the Farm-Out and transfer of operatorship will be obtained by 15 October 2020. The Company notes that this is the ninth extension to the long stop date and has been advised by ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") that the long stop date will not be extended again. Consequently, if such Government approval is not obtained by 15 October 2020, APT will have the right to terminate the Farm-Out Agreement."

Yes absolute steel, though we mustn't forget it wasn't ARA that set the deal but Wentworth.