Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
I hope you're right.
One is in production but unprofitable,
Price to book value 0.37
Mcap 44m
One is basically some land ready to start building a mine on.
Price to book value 0.94
Mcap 43m
So the smart money would go on the one that's in production, right?
But what if the one already in production had disappointed time and time again.....for whatever reason
And the one nowhere near production received serious interest from potential buyers with stacks of cash and a proven track record in mining?
Was searching for an update on how many CBM wells they now have and came across this
Rating upgraded to 'CRISIL BBB+/ Stable'
https://www.crisil.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/GreatEasternEnergyCorporationLimited_August%2030,%202022_RR_297936.html
I can see the 75.5K and 16K trades @ 12.1p
I sold a little elsewhere today and topped up 47K @ 12.7p to bring my average down below 20p now
I guess someone or some people need to sell when there is no interest from buyers.
Even if GEEC cannot find a partner of some kind to fund large scale shale exploration/production they've still got plenty more CBM wells to drill have they not ?
From their website, not sure how up to date the well numbers are -
"GEECL's Raniganj (South) block licence area covers 210 sq. km (52,500 acres). We will drill 300 wells in the contracted area. A 5-well cluster pattern will be followed for drilling the wells. The wells are connected by an internal MDPE pipeline network going into our Gas Gathering Station and then feeding the gas into our dedicated external steel pipeline network.
Area of 210 sq. km.
10.62 TCF of Original-Gas-in-Place
156 wells drilled
A further 144 wells planned to be drilled
56 deviated wells have been successfully drilled
Dedicated pipeline of 77.62 km running through the heart of the Asansol-Durgapur industrial belt"
The next quarterly update (Q1 23) is unlikely to be uplifting in terms of revenue. We'll not be stoping until May (or possibly late April if they are ahead of schedule). It's Q2 update that will be more interesting.
With hindsight I'd have sold out at £1.40 to buy back in at <£1. But equally one could sell out at £1.40 only to see it reach £1.80
Naturally I'd prefer the SP to be £1.40 than £1, but as a long term holder with no intention to sell the sustainability of the divi is more important than the SP.
Based on your growth numbers the 5 year gain using the calculator increases to 140% (mine being 99% gain without factoring in any growth)
But if there is dilution to pay for acquisitions then the mcap should theoretically rise by the value of the raise, the SP be relatively unaffected and FCF to pay the divis also increase proportionately to the value of the acquisition, or greater than that if it was a really good deal?
I've just done a simulation on excel.
Starting at £1 SP with a quarterly divi of 3.7p which is roughly what we have now.
Assuming constant SP and constant divi for the next 5 years, with divi reinvested quarterly, at the end of Y5 with compounding you would have achieved a 100% return.
All hypothetical I know, and it assumes a constant SP with all revenue coming just from the divi. You would expect some growth in SP in 5 years if the company continues to perform, so in reality if returns to shareholders can be maintained it should be even better.
@broomtree
More imported LNG will be needed to replenish European gas reserves this year. Russian pipelines were operating fairly normally for the 1st few months of 2022 until some mysterious explosions. That shortfall will need to be made up and imported LNG will be part of it. I can see healthy (but not daft) long term gas prices returning and being maintained for the foreseeable....