focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I'm doing alright on BT. Suspect if any of us were doing tremendously or if anything we said had an impact on the share price, it's unlikely we'd be posting on LSE. My strategy, fwiw, is believing 110 is the bottom, buying when it gets near it and selling when it's near 120. Do that a few times and roll in divs and it's golden.
I agree the board are low quality, as are both the outgoing and incoming CEOs. But BT are making a lot of money. Despite the best efforts of their highest paid. Pension liability down, debt down, revenue up. Staff numbers will halve over the next 5-10 years. Automation, low maintenance networks will significantly reduce service costs. And the divi is good. Not great but definitely not terrible. Drones, IoT and healthcare will all add a bit more cash to the pot. And they're simplifying their technology, who you've the system cost and the worker costs reduced. Holding for long-term.
"ah, I see". There should be a chin-stroking emoji. Maybe ask the CFO to confirm, but the outcome is as I've said below. And subscription numbers are decreasing. So saying it'll be fine as churn will balance out across MNOs is incorrect. Subscribers have less cash to spend on broadband and mobile, so they're going to cheaper suppliers (and that's not BT). If you don't understand that then I suspect share trading isn't for you.
Are you asking me? If so, it was the most recent finance update (unsure what the meeting is called - it's the media update when all the Soho razzers ask Qs of Bumsen and Lout). Wondering if it was June or July '23. A journo said (paraphrasing0 "What's the point of putting up your prices by CPI + x every year when you lose so many customers?" and the responses was something like I posted below.
I'm making the numbers up but it was something like putting the prices up increases revenue by 10% and those that leave as a result of the increase are equivalent to 4% revenue so a net gain of 6%. The price increase more than pays for the leavers. Doesn't sound sustainable, tbh. But that's BT.
It's a mechanism to encourage unhappy employees to leave, without hefty redundancy costs. The cost of living payment went to 85% of employees. Would have cost only £24m to give you everyone - again, a device to cost-effectively nudge employee out.
1. Let's automate her role and save the cash. 2. CEOs are worth the big bucks because they are intellectually superior and can increase market-cap / shareholder value regardless of any macro conditions. 3. Philip Jansen is a clown (a fortunate clown, but a clown nonetheless).