Gallium : Rare Earth Export Issues in China14 Nov 2025 10:40
Came across this article about Gallium. Did you know that China exports 98% of the world and it is mainly used for electronics. Anyway, this is a risk that you cannot ignore.
===
o produce just 100 tons of gallium annually (less than 17% of China’s current production), the U.S. would need to:
- Increase Aluminum Production Sixfold: This requires building new alumina refineries and aluminum smelters, costing an estimated $30 billion.
- Overcome the Energy Challenge: The new smelters would require approximately 51 billion kWh of continuous, 24/7 power. This is equivalent to building six new Vogtle-scale nuclear reactors (three separate projects), costing an estimated $110 billion and taking a minimum of 12 years to complete.
- Train a Specialized Workforce: The U.S. would need to find and train at least 35,000 highly specialized industrial workers in a country that has spent decades dismantling its vocational training and manufacturing base.
The Market Problem: Even after spending $140 billion and waiting over a decade, the new capacity would create 4.7 million tons of aluminum as a byproduct, exceeding the entire current U.S. domestic demand. This would result in a permanently unprofitable venture that could only be sustained by permanent taxpayer subsidies, as the product would not be globally price-competitive with China.
https://www.joelwong.net/2025/10/21/how-long-can-china-play-the-rare-earths-card-arnaud-bertrand/