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Morning all,
I thought I’d have a stab at summarising the operational activities and release of newsflow over the coming weeks and months. Lots of variables here, so any thoughts on this would be welcome – e.g. I may be being too optimistic / pessimistic on timings, and others may have differing views on the precise sequence of events etc. But here goes...
📅Oct/Nov
1. Testing of MOU-3, then Declaration of CNG Commerciality (DoC):
• Testing to commence on or before 16/10/23; approx 10d of testing.
• 43m of sand; threshold for commerciality 2-5mmcfgpd (see Keith’s post @08:30 from yesterday – i.e. flow likely to significantly exceed this value)
Allowing for some delays and data analysis, DoC made in first half of November (but could be sooner?)
📅Nov
2. GSA:
• GSA announced with “...a group focussed on the downstream energy business to... sell its share of gas produced at the well head.”
Likely in (early) November, immediately following DoC
3. CNG Financing Deal:
• “The Company is also in discussion with several parties regarding the financing of the CNG development.”
Likely in November, immediately / soon after GSA.
4. T&T:
“... final negotiations regarding the treatment of the historical TRex liabilities is expected to be successfully completed paving the way for Completion to occur BEFORE the amended Long-stop Date of 30 November 2023.”
• Cory Moruga deal confirmed within the next 7 weeks
• CM CPR published
📅Nov/Dec/Jan
5. Further Drilling and Testing:
“Financing options are being crystallised which will allow funds to be re-purposed for further appraisal drilling activity and value accretion through drilling success."
So drilling to commence immediately after announcement of CNG financing deal:
• Drill MOU-3 ‘twin’ optimised for shallow section – then test 11m of net pay @339-350 (3% formation gas) +/- other sands @449m, 509m, 555m, 751m. Drilled from same pad as MOU-3.
• [Then possibly test MOU-1 (conventional perforation)]
Whilst drilling MOU-3 ‘twin’, construct well pads for the following, and then (back-to-back):
• Drill Jurassic ‘crestal’ appraisal – targeting >200m of net pay. (Test Jurassic?)
• Drill SW extension of MOU-3 structure (test if necessary)
Note: 7-8d per drill. If drilled back-to-back, all 3 could potentially be drilled before YE (though possibly into Jan 24?)
IRL:
• Possible progress on SA for Corrib South (and perhaps Mag Mell) post publication of Energy Review. (Though won’t be holding my breath!)
📅Jan/Feb/Mar 24
M&A:
Assuming positive outcomes from the above drilling and testing campaign, corporate activity for PGVMB in Q1 ‘24 (sale + stub equity/royalties)
T&T:
Possible additional activity:
• I-T deal (service provision of CO2 EOR, or full sale of asset to PRD);
• JV deal for CM (FWIW, my money’s on expanding the partnership with TX
Androcles,
From what I’ve gleaned during discussions on such matters, I’m very happy to learn that conventional perforating guns are now being used.
The gist being… why take the risk with a method not used in this setting (or country) before when conventional perforation is tried and tested (worldwide) and is accepted as the industry gold-standard? So this is a very positive aspect of the operational update, IMO.
Presumably Vivo Energy has to be high on the list as our potential gas off-taker?
A partnership between Vivo and CHAR was announced back in May to supply Anchois gas (and presumably now any had from the Loukos licence) to local industry:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CHAR/partnership-agreement-chariot-and-vivo-energy/15938167
So you’d have to think Vivo would also be very keen to partner with Predator – quicker to first gas and (likely) more it.
https://www.vivoenergy.com/en/our-business/commercial/core-commercial
Gudin and Silverfoil,
From the RNS 30th August:
“Guercif rigless testing on track and scheduled for September execution”, and
“The Sandjet rigless testing programme is on track and scheduled to be executed and completed in September.” [Paul’s comment]
Then, from the RNS (Interims) 19th September:
“The outlook for the REMAINDER OF 2023 will see the rigless testing programme in Morocco initiated and completed and, subject to results, the CNG development plan being progressed targeting "First Gas" in 2024.”
Clearly something happened between the publication of these two RNS’s (a mere 20 days) that has subtly shifted the time-frame for testing from definitely being in September, to then being completed by YE.
Of course, this may simply be the result of delays in importing the testing equipment (e.g. CTU) to Morocco.
Or - and this is my own personal hunch, FWIW - it may be that more detailed analysis of the well data combined with discussions with potential farm-in partners (see Keith’s and the Cube’s intriguing posts!) has led to a shift in operational priorities.
MK111,
This is what Paul said at the IMC presentation back in Feb (nicely summarised by Matt's response): (From 37m0s)
https://youtu.be/7xbTMWdGHtQ?si=AdWwblO0CipdfQCb
"Given that any kind of corporate transaction would require government approval if you were disposing of a licence or a part of a licence, for example, and government consent which would take a long time, one of the preferred options could be in the early stages of developing this opportunity and realising the potential, would be to sell potentially an interest in the shares in the Moroccan subsidiary. Not a controlling interest but a certain interest that eventually could lead to an option to buy the entire company in a success case. That would make more sense as it would not require any government consents. But it would also give the company comfort that whoever might come in on that basis would be sufficiently large enough to take out the whole thing if we prove up what we think we’re going to prove up in 2023. That’s probably my preference at present..."
(cont...)
So my reading is that, after discussions with potential industry partners following the ‘phenomenal’ [Paul’s words] MOU-3 and MOU-4 drill results, the focus is now on drilling in preference to testing – and that further successful drilling will be sufficient to trigger an M&A deal. Of course, subject to funding, there’s always the opportunity to do BOTH drilling and testing simultaneously as both are relatively quick – 7-8d to drill a well and (from what I’ve been told) approx 10 days to test it.
Just my views, of course. But, as ever with PRD, there appears to be plenty of ‘optionality’ on how Paul progresses the business from here, all of which have a high chance of achieving positive outcomes for the company and us shareholders (IMO).
Hi Jimmy,
When Paul’s talking about the ‘market’ (as in ‘market sentiment’ and ‘market dynamics’, as per the interims) my feeling is that he’s talking about the O&G industry, and specifically the ‘M&A market’, rather than the ‘stock market’ itself.
I fully agree that the stock market is currently significantly undervaluing PRD due to the lack of flow data (and therein, of course, lies the opportunity for us pi’s) but, rightly or wrongly (and I think the former), I don’t think that this is of great concern to Paul.
As Trifle says, the market cap (as determined by the stock market) is relevant for fund-raising via placings. But I think Paul’s focus will now be on advancing the business through M&A (farm-out or full sale of PGVMB) rather than further placings so the short-term stock market valuation is potentially of less significance.
I also agree that advancing the CNG business to cash flows to then organically fund future drilling would be an excellent approach. However, I don’t think Paul expects PRD to still be the operator of Guercif by the time of first gas (~mid 2024) so this is not likely to be of relevance, IMO. Whichever company(s) takes over Guercif will have sufficient funds to progress both the CNG development to first gas (excellent profit margins, great for Moroccan industry, though relatively low gas volumes in the grand scheme of things) AND further drilling and field development for G2P/G2EU simultaneously (much higher gas volumes).
(As per Keith’s post from yesterday, $100M to rapidly develop Titanosaurus to first gas will be financially very manageable for a supermajor / major, particularly considering the incredible IRR / NPV10 metrics.)
As we know, Paul stated in the most recent Sunday Roast podcast that “We want to be in a position by summer of an exit route and a value” and that there were “several parties who are fundamentally interested…”. So I think both suggest that we’ll have exited Morocco in the near-term (before YE?) save for any potential for stub equity / royalty payments, of course (depending on how Paul wishes to structure the deal).
And cattleman, you’re correct in what Paul said in the SR podcast about testing, suggesting it’s not an industry priority:
“But as I say, I wouldn’t get obsessed with testing any well because a lot of companies don’t test wells these days. You can get enough information to determine what wells may or may not produce at. We have an offset well, for example, to MOU-1 in the Rharb basin, which has very very similar characteristics [presumably LAM-1] and we know from that well which is tapping a much smaller volume of gas that they did achieve commercial gas rates for CNG.”
(cont...)
Wobh,
Thanks for that update, interesting.
As for Paul and Lonny being out of the country, I wonder if this is to assess the Jurassic as per 30th Aug RNS:
“A field trip is being planned for the autumn to evaluate the reservoir potential of the entire interval of interest in Jurassic surface exposures to the south of the Guercif licence area.”
On reading the interims, what struck me most was the clear focus on drilling rather than testing, so I do wonder if the former is now the immediate priority for the company. For example:
“Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc (PRD), the Jersey-based Oil and Gas Company ("Predator" or "the Company") FOCUSSED ON NEAR-TERM, HIGH IMPACT DRILLING FOR GAS IN MOROCCO is pleased to announce its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2023.”
[This was pointed out on the other bb – it’s the first sentence in the interims after the bullet-point highlights, so presumably Paul is wishing to emphasise his priorities and intent here]
“Market sentiment has changed for the oil and gas sector in the early part of 2023 and those companies that are activity driven and FOCUSSED ON DRILLING AND DELIVERING NEAR-TERM VALUE with a reasonable expectation of early monetisation are being favoured by investors in the sector”
“Market dynamics are cyclical and currently the APPETITE IS FOR NEAR-TERM, VALUE CREATING, DRILLING SUCCESS.”
I’m speculating of course (and could be wildly wrong!) but my feeling is that the next activity will be drilling:
• Jurassic appraisal
• +/- MOU-3 ‘twin’
• +/- “Evaluation of the higher pressure shallow gas encountered in MOU-3 and a southwest extension of the MOU-3 structure...”.
Then test all wells (potentially up to 5 wells in total?) before YE, by which time it’s also possible we may have a partner on board.
With the 30th Aug RNS stating that testing would be in September, if the plans have changed then I’d expect an operational update next week although, ultimately, news will come when it comes and I’m confident it’ll be worth the wait. As Keith said last week: “I'm happy to sit back and trust Paul & Lonny.”
Https://www.newstalk.com/news/eamon-ryan-there-should-be-no-general-election-until-march-2025-1508060
“The Green Party leader Eamon Ryan has said the next general election should not happen until March of 2025. Minister Ryan wants the Government to run as late as possible in the hope of building more homes in that time. Many in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil favour an election date in the autumn of 2024.”
Which sounds a bit like Eamon’s desperately trying to cling on to power for as long as possible… I wonder why?! Perhaps it has something to do with the Greens currently sitting at only 3% in the polls, compared to 7% at the time of the last election in 2020. No wonder Eamon’s sounding a bit worried...😉
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/ireland/
So potentially we only have another 12 months to put up with Minister Ryan calling the shots and stalling on granting the successor authorisations (and 18 months at worst).
As Paul said in the interims, just a bit more patience required with Ireland:
“The Company's strategy is to exercise patience and to ensure that our applications for successor authorisations remain under active consideration until such time that the argument for security and diversity of gas supply and the protection of strategic infrastructure for the Energy Transition becomes overwhelming.”
Donalb,
Good spot! I must have looked at that slide numerous times over the years and never noticed that Guercif is now in Algeria!!
Morning Matelot001,
Re reservoir thickness…
Keith posted this link last month which nicely depicts the reservoir depths in the Guercif licence:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-Composite-ProRle-across-Guercif-Basin-For-location-see-Fig-2_fig3_46603074
(For Keith's original post, see "Guercif Basin Subsurface" on 21st Aug:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/?page=4 )
As Keith said: "It indicates there could be gas from the Neogene 1000m down (as we already know) all the way to the Triassic over 4km down."
As for volumetrics...
You may recall that GRH has previously made reference to the Leviathan gas field (e.g. see links in Kasjnaton’s earlier post) and, as such, I think this article makes an ‘interesting’ (or, in fact, somewhat ‘mind-boggling’!) read:
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/leviathan-gas-field-levantine-israel/
“As per the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates, the entire Leviathan BASIN holds a MEAN APPROXIMATION OF 1.7 BILLION BARRELS OF RECOVERABLE OIL and a MEAN OF 122 TRILLION CUBIC FEET OF RECOVERABLE GAS.
The Leviathan gas FIELD’s natural gas reserves are estimated to be 18 TRILLION CUBIC FEET (TCF). Besides natural gas, the field is said to contain 600 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL beneath the gas layer.” [emphasis my own]
So, clearly the Leviathan field is huge (as its name suggests!) but that’s only a (fairly small) part of the whole basin’s overall potential. Therefore, and without getting too far ahead of ourselves, presumably the potential for similar volumes in Guercif exists too (as has been discussed on the bb previously)?
[Also, see slide 19 for the connection between Leviathan and Guercif:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2019/02/New-Presentation.pdf ]
With all this in mind, I think it’s worth re-repeating Seabright’s comment from last month (I just love this comment of his)...
“However can I respectfully suggest that we are merely….scratching the surface.”
😎
(cont...)
Ireland:
“In Ireland the Company's shorter-term emphasis has shifted so far in 2023 to attempting to secure a successor authorisation for Corrib South.”
“Maintaining the longevity of the Corrib gas field infrastructure during the Energy Transition for blended gas and hydrogen storage and possible LNG imports contributes to this strategic objective.”
“The Company is working with a POTENTIAL STRATEGIC PARTNER in the event a successor authorisation for Corrib South is awarded.”
“Following an UNSOLICITED APPROACH in relation to Corrib South from a potential strategic partner of substance…”
T&T:
“...a HIGH IMPACT appraisal well in the under-developed Cory Moruga licence may be scheduled for 2024.”
“The Company therefore recognises SIGNIFICANT UNREALISED POTENTIAL RESOURCES within the Cory Moruga Licence.”
“...there is scope for a miscible CO2 EOR project early in the development phase of any production opportunity if original reservoir pressures are not permitted to steeply decline. This can in a success case lead to a SIGNIFICANT UPLIFT IN ULTIMATELY RECOVERABLE OIL…”
“… final negotiations regarding the treatment of the historical TRex liabilities is EXPECTED TO BE SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED paving the way for Completion to occur BEFORE the amended Long-stop Date of 30 November 2023.”
“...the Company has a reasonable expectation that consent will be granted based on its ability to offer CO2 EOR as a development option.”
Afternoon all,
Interims can often be a pretty dry affair but I thought these were intriguing with lots of new information.
For those who may not have had the chance to read them yet, here are a few highlights [emphasis my own]:
General / Financial:
“[The Company] has not diluted project equity in that time on the basis that any future monetisation of assets has a greater chance of attracting ENTITIES OF SUBSTANCE if the OPPORTUNITY IS MATERIAL to them.”
“The Company has NO THIRD PARTY DEBT.”
“Our projects in Trinidad and Ireland remain patiently managed at minimal cost and can be ADVANCED RAPIDLY to create potential shareholder value as and when negotiations reach a stage where licences and acquisitions receive regulatory approval and consent.”
“Market sentiment has changed for the oil and gas sector in the early part of 2023 and those companies that are activity driven and FOCUSSED ON DRILLING AND DELIVERING NEAR-TERM VALUE with a reasonable expectation of early monetisation are being favoured by investors in the sector”
“Our strength lies in being an EARLY MOVER to identify value-creating opportunities and to patiently bring them to a stage where early monetisation is a realistic goal.”
“The Company has sufficient funding, if required to execute the acquisition of TRex Holdings (Trinidad) Limited within the next 12 months and also to contribute to the initial costs for a CNG development in Morocco subject to the award of an Exploitation Concession.”
Morocco:
“...NEW GAS BASIN covering up to 240 km² in the northwest corner of the Guercif Licence.”
“The outlook for the remainder of 2023 will see the rigless testing programme inMorocco INITIATED AND COMPLETED and, subject to results, the CNG development plan being progressed targeting "First Gas" in 2024”
“Market dynamics are cyclical and currently the APPETITE IS FOR NEAR-TERM, VALUE CREATING, DRILLING SUCCESS.”
“The primary advantage of Sandjet is that it allows DEEPER PENETRATION into potential gas reservoirs beyond the wellbore zone impacted by heavier drilling mud invasion in circumstances where the drilling is over-balanced. It is also more COST-EFFECTIVE compared to conventional perforating options using explosives where there are a number of separate reservoir sands to be evaluated for assessing the potential to co-mingle on production.”
“MOU-3 has de-risked the potential to nominate other potential structures prospective for gas for short and medium-term drilling which will provide both "RUNNING ROOM" and further OPPORTUNITIES TO ADD PROSPECTIVE GAS RESOURCES.”
“The Company has interest from TWO LENDERS to provide debt financing for a CNG development...”
(cont...)
Cont...
So the time-frames for the de-risking events you mention, especially for Morocco (and perhaps IRL too?) can now be measured in a matter of weeks or a couple of months at most.
🌜One final comment from Paul…
“The way it is for oil and gas companies… your market cap is always not going to reflect what the potential value of the company is… (but) it only takes one well or one agreement to change that value and IT WILL BE CHANGED OVERNIGHT” [Sunday Roast April 2023]
Thanks (as ever) Keith,
What really struck me on reading your paragraph on de-risking events is the potentially very short (and narrowing day-by-day, of course) time-frames for execution:
[I particularly love your dinosaur-emoji bullet-points… brilliant! So I couldn’t resist following your lead with a few emoji bullet-points of my own😎]
🔥Gas flow-rates
“The Sandjet rigless testing programme is on track and scheduled to be executed and completed in SEPTEMBER.” [RNS 30th August 2023]
(Testing of each well takes only about 10 days to complete)
⛽Calculation of Reservoir Volumes
“Upon completion of these studies and integration with the rigless testing results for MOU-1, MOU-3 and MOU-4, scheduled to be completed in September 2023, new volumetric estimates will need to be calculated and an updated CPR is currently expected to be produced by the END OF NOVEMBER 2023.” [Prospectus 10th August 2023, p14]
🔥Gas Sales Agreement
“In parallel with the testing programme agreements for the sale of gas... are being progressed.” [RNS 30th August 2023]
“Gas sales and CNG financing agreements triggered by release of test results” [RNS 8th November 2022]
💲Financing of CNG equipment
“Subject to rigless testing results, an initial Compressed Natural Gas development can potentially be funded by a debt instrument linked to production…” [RNS 30th August 2023]
“Gas sales and CNG financing agreements triggered by release of test results” [RNS 8th November 2022]
🦖Confirmation of Jurassic Potential
“The updip appraisal of the Jurassic target encountered in MOU-4 is a KEY OBJECTIVE of the Company.”
“Well design and sourcing of long lead well inventory has commenced.”
“A field trip is being planned for the AUTUMN to evaluate the reservoir potential of the entire interval of interest in Jurassic surface exposures to the south of the Guercif licence area.”
“Opportunities for further drilling, in particular to evaluate the Jurassic structure partly penetrated by MOU-4, are being developed. The strategy has a clear objective to identify and pursue balanced risk-reward projects where early NEAR-TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE can be delivered through drilling success. Current market dynamics support drilling activity and VERY NEAR-TERM VALUE CREATION.”
[All RNS 30th August 2023]
🤑JV or acquisition of Guercif licences
“We want to be in a position by summer of an exit route and a value.” [Sunday Roast April 2023]
[And see comments above]
🐴As for T&T and IRL:
“...I would just reinforce the fact to all our shareholders that we’re not a one-trick pony… we also have significant value developing in offshore Ireland and Trinidad... So yes, Morocco’s the focus, but do not underestimate the other potential value in the company which could crystallise at ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.” [Sunday Roast, April 2023]
cont...
Rob,
My reading is that the 18 individual horizons for perforation is for MOU-1 only. The 4 additional data points will then be used to help plan a through perforation and testing programme for MOU-3 which will presumably be even more extensive (43m of likely gas sands, as interpreted by NuTech). Then MOU-4 to follow (64m of sand, including 2m of Jurassic).
And that’s just the testing programme…
Let’s not forget from the 30th Aug RNS that:
“The updip appraisal of the Jurassic target encountered in MOU-4 is a KEY OBJECTIVE of the Company.”
Paul’s comment was very telling, IMO:
“Current market dynamics support drilling activity and VERY NEAR-TERM value creation.”
As we know, the drills are taking only around 7-8d to complete, so Paul’s use of the phrase “VERY NEAR-TERM” suggests there’s potentially a deal to be done for PGVMB immediately after the successful drilling of the Jurassic crest. As Paul said earlier in the year (Sunday Roast) he was hoping for a Morocco exit by the end of the summer.
Finally, GRH has tweeted a timely reminder this morning:
“The magnitude of the Prize.
Way beyond the grasp of most.
That’s it🔥”
https://twitter.com/GrahamHengland/status/1702576659222704171
Gatto,
It’s also well worth having a look at Methodology’s superb regression analysis of flow rates per metre of net pay on Reddit:
“MOU-1 and the Rharb Basin: Net Pay v Well Flow Rate.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/
A few points to highlight:
• "A pilot CNG development in the range 2 to 5 mm cfgpd is economic" – RNS 15 December 2021
It has subsequently been stated that only 1mm cfgpd is required for a pilot CNG study (see FDC broker note)
• “The average Flow per Meter of net pay for various choke sizing is: 1.36 mmscf/d. MOU-1 Net pay: 10-12m”
Of note, PRD has frequently made reference to an offset well in the Rharb basin (LAM-1) which flowed at 1.9mm from only 1m of net pay. (See slide 16:)
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/19204501/PRD-Proactive-Presentation-Final-09.09.2021-1.pdf
• “Therefore - The chance that MOU-1 flows greater than 2mmscf/d: 0.86 * 0.99 = 0.85 = 85%”
• Note that this analysis was performed before the MOU-3 and MOU-4 wells were drilled, and the total net pay is now over 150m from the 3 wells. MOU-1 testing alone is aiming to perforate 18 individual horizons. So it’s likely that Methodology’s calculation of 85% commercial CoS (to achieve a minimum flow of 2mmcfgd) is likely to end up being conservative (IMO).
A superb summary of the investment thesis for PRD – huge thanks, as ever, Keith for taking the time and effort to post 👍
A couple of very minor points to add, if I may…
Re Areal extent:
The Titanosaurus prospect’s areal extent was further increased to 126km2, as per p32 of the 2022 Annual Report (released in April this year):
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/04/POGH-2022-Annual-Report.pdf
“Revised seismic mapping has identified a structure covering 126 km², an increase in size of 23% compared to that previously reported in 2021.”
BTW, I’m only pointing this out as don’t want you to be accused of being a member of the FUD brigade by your stating that Titanosaurus is ‘only’ 102km2 😉
Re Profitability:
Specifically regarding CNG, from the Proactive presentation in May this year (slide 6):
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Proactive-Presentation-18-May-2023-FINAL.pdf
“Morocco CNG US$4.84 million/BCF @10% NPV (Management estimate)”
Which nicely highlights just how profitable CNG is cf G2P, so the more gas we can sell through CNG the better. Though as Paul has said (Proactive interview 14/7/23), there’s “...potentially there’s just too much gas there for the CNG market” so some gas will have to go to G2P/G2EU, of course.
Also, I realise that you’re also only wishing to reference official PRD documents and that you’re certainly far too modest to wish to plug your own superb posting history, but I do think it’s worth taking this opportunity to reiterate your IRR calculations (See Keith’s post from 16/7/23 – one of the most truly memorable posts ever, IMO):
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/?page=7
“Over the last few decades, I have used NPV & IRR to evaluate literally hundreds of projects, I would put those with an IRR of around 100% in the exceptional category. The G2P/G2EU example I used to give an NPV12 of £2.5Bn has an IRR of 386%. I have never seen such a high number, nor such a short payback period.”
Top posting, Keith!
Many thanks again
BRV
(cont...)
(... add so much to the bb)
My mention of seabright got me thinking a bit more about all of his brilliant posts…
For any relatively new investors, I think it’d certainly be time very well spent reviewing his full posting history:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/seabright/
I posted a brief summary of some of his key comments last year but I think these are definitely worth re-posting (with apologies to those who've read this before) as they serve an excellent reminder of the opportunity that exists at Guercif: [added emphasis my own]
“Large faults coincide with surface and subsurface anticlines of the Guercif Basin.
These anticlines, arched like folded structures, are associated with synsedimentary strike-slip faults and are characterised by their POSITIVE FLOWER STRUCTURE.
The presence of positive flower structures is favourable for the formation of structural closures and thus the accumulation of hydrocarbons.”
“Most of the largest gas fields in the world contain very little oil. Most of the largest oil fields contain very little gas. The exceptions tend to be basins that have undergone considerable uplift and erosion. Here we can find LARGE OIL ACCUMULATIONS NEXT TO LARGE GAS ACCUMULATIONS. GUERCIF IS ONE SUCH EXAMPLE.”
“GRH and others have mentioned many times about the importance of hydrocarbon charge and intensity. It remains the most important geochemical factor when estimating large oil and gas fields. GUERCIF IS HYPER CHARGED.”
“The area we are targeting has a maximum Neogene-Quaternary depth of 2,000m. Beneath this lies a Jurassic substratum of approx 1200m followed by Triassic deposits and a paleozonic basement down to 7km, ALL OF WHICH COULD BE CHARGED WITH HYDROCARBONS.”
“It is my belief that GRF-1, MSD-1, TAF-1X and KDH-1 and Mou-1 are located close to FOUR major faults that are CONNECTED (Imagine the branches of a tree) to each other and are deeply seated to a depth of 7km.
The most interesting fault is the fault that runs though the BMD: Boy Msaad Diapir. This major fault is the trunk that feeds the branches connecting the Well areas mentioned in the previous paragraph. It’s the deepest fault extending to 7kms deep and largely follows the Moulouya river from the Bourached region to the Bni Snassene belt. If I was to guess it would extend to approx 100km in length.
In total there are FIFTEEN major faults crossing the structural domain area.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDROCARBONS ARE TREMENDOUS.
All that is required is PATIENCE.”
And from his most recent post earlier this month...
"...can I respectfully suggest that we are merely….SCRATCHING THE SURFACE."
When the sp is drifting like it is at the moment, it's often easy to forget the sheer magnitude of the opportunity at Guercif.
(And, as Bob says, let's not forget about T&T and IRL too, of course).
So I've said this before but I think it's certainly worth repeating....
THANK YOU seabright!
(and THANKS also to all our other resident geologists who