Member Info for Billybob15

Roguemale1 - we do have an accountant, I qualified as an ACA many years ago. The 712m is net debt (debt-cash), so although I wish your maths was right you have double counted the cash.

Billzo - you have to compare apples with apples. The 21.5m PBT is AFTER paying interest on the 712m debt. The calculation should be: 10x 96.6m ebitda is an EV of 966m less 712m net debt gives 254m MCap with 140m shares is a share price of 181p. As a check, with eps of 11.9p that equates to a PE ratio of 15.2x. On that basis I believe the share price should be c180p. The share price at 115p represents 9x ebitda or 9.6x PE.

Billzo - the 52 week high is just over 250p so I suspect he would have to offer that. That would cost him 250m pounds for the 100m shares he doesn’t already own. Add that to the 100m pounds he paid for the shares he has and it totals 350m pounds. He sold the business for 1,350m in 2003. Not a bad deal…If he waits too long he may have competition from trade or PE so he should get his skates on. He may even bring Andrew Goodsell back to work his magic…

Don’t be so melodramatic - just look at the volume traded so far today - less than gbp 500k, and I was over 10% of that (buying). Any selling in this thin market will drive down prices and I will pick up bargains.

My mistake - it is IFRS16 on leases which replaces IAS17…not FRS17

Guys…put the handbags away. Take a look at last years Annual Report. The difference between EBITDA and PBT then was 74.5m (85.6-11.1). This year it is 58 (106-48). The largest individual item is depreciation on right if use assets (37.4). This is because of the ridiculous FRS17 write up off leased assets (with a correspondingly stupid increase in leasehold debt which confuses everyone). This lease cost flows through the P/L as a depreciation charge. The key things to focus on in my view is that between FY22 (Jan22) and FY23(Jan23) ebitda has grown by 24% and PBT by 4x. The EPS was c11.3p which at an undemanding historic PER of 10-12 gives 113-136p. I continue to buy at these undervalued prices.

Knowbody - do you think the Russian tanks are made of gold?

I am amazed at the number of daily posts on this share. I have built up a decent long position (average in the high 20s) and I am confident it will be a good investment. However, my timeframe is 12-24 months as opposed to a few days which seems to be the case for too many here. Relax - it will come good but give it some time.

Some very extreme views being stated in both directions…FWIW I suspect the late off market trade was a large II finally clearing their position (for whatever reason). The stake looks to have been picked up by another II. Without the overhang I would expect the SP to return to levels of a couple of months ago. Not sure what the implications of that would be for FTSE 250 membership but index funds may have to buy back in soon…

Dear SMS, I do hope you don’t invest based on graphs…Look at the fundamentals and the figures. One of the first pages in the presentation last week shows sales of £3m, ebitda of £295m with debt of £880m. An EV of 10x ebitda or 1 x sales would translate into a share price of c£1.24. As a former PE partner I imagine that many if my former competitors will be running the slide rule over Capita.

Actually that was one of my purchases

Well done Beachbum - great cause and good luck with it.

Lovelace - I suspect the dead cat bounce as you put it will be driven by Lombard Odier reducing their short, so good news all round and well done to anyone who bought under 40p

Also don’t be overly spooked by the size of the share price move today - I don’t see anything CF specific. I have a screen of shares I monitor and many are faring worse. It is the smaller, less liquid stocks that are seeing the greatest pain. Volume traded to date today is about £1m - so not huge

Purple - this is a seasonal business with a working capital build starting after the summer for Xmas. This probably means they don’t pay down equal monthly instalments of the loan. In my view, the more important date is that the last lockdown began to ease on 8th March 2021. So once they have the Feb management accounts (or at worst the March accounts) they with have a covid free last 12 months trading. This can be used as a base to refinance the current loan taken out in the middle of covid, the debt level should not be too high and so associated fees minimised. They can then announce that dividend repayments can resume. I imagine that will help the share price and so I bought more shares this am.

Rox - a paper loss is only a concern if you have to realise it. FWIW I have a higher average entry price and larger stake (so a larger unrealised loss). With a 2 year horizon I am relaxed. To put it into context, at IPO CF was valued at the equivalent of about £1.25m per shop, this peaked at over £1.5m/shop and currently sits at around £200k/shop. Before people start screaming that there are other things that need to be taken into account, such and USD/GBP and NMWage increases - I understand that, but it is still and interesting ready reckoner.

In the last month the share price has fallen 25%, apparently based on general market reaction to Russia / Ukraine war rather than CF specific news. As a small stock the hedge funds can move the price around. Fundamental value will show through though especially once the dividend is restored.

I have added 250k at 46.5p - perhaps a bit early but I see this at 150p within 2 years. I will happily take 3x over 2 years!

Simply Wall St have updated their fair value view of CF to £1.12. There does seem to be upward momentum in the price but it keeps being held back. Over the next few days we should learn whether this is the hedge funds trying to move the price down with their shorts.

Did anyone else notice that the trading update yesterday didn’t include contact details for Tulchan Communications (their PR agents)? The January 2021 TU had a phone number for them. That suggests to me that Tulchan either weren’t shown or did not agree/draft the wording. Why not?