Member Info for Billybob15

Yes - looks like a 35m share trade in one go (as T disclosed threshold passed on 18/7). Was off market as it didn’t show up in volume traded. The buyer is already late with their RNS disclosure.

Barclays - target price 40p

The ridiculously low valuation can be demonstrated by comparing the enterprise value in 2021 to now. Then the share price was 45p (MCap £155m) and debt was £145m (ex leases). Today the share price is 93p (MCap £325m) and debt (ex leases) is £35m giving it an EV of £360m. However, in 2021 the stores were closed by Covid and everyone thought CF would go bust. Today it had over half a billion pounds of sales and an ebitda (post leases) of £83m. Massive undervaluation today! And no credit given for reducing debt by £110m - that alone is worth 33p a share.

Triumph - these assets, shorn of an expensive and useless management team, head office and listing costs is worth a good amount of money. What potentially takes it significantly above the current share price is competition between bidders for the assets. I would agree with you if this were a bilateral transaction but we know at least two possible buyers, Nightcap and Luke Johnson et al who you have to assume would step up to buy the whole thing if their restructure looked like it wasn’t going to happen.

You have to assume that the Nightcap management team could make a better fist of this than the useless Keith Edelman and co. Time to pass the baton on…

😂😂

Only a win for new investors if restructure goes through. If someone offers 5p now they will likely get it and new investors get nothing. That is why I am not selling as you only get rights (and diluted 84%) if nobody buys in the short term.

Volume so far today is less than 4m shares so less than 2% of the company - so irrelevant imho. The restructure is a stay of execution and if used I would expect a break up over six months - so I will take up my rights on the same terms as Luke Johnson et al. Big question is can anyone step up in the next couple of weeks to buy what is there (with 20m gbp of net debt) at a more attractive level than the restructure option? That is why I think some people have chosen to buy at 1.6p - but it is a binary bet albeit one that could return 2-5x.

Hi Steve - I reckon the update will be 9th - the second Tuesday of January - last year it was Tuesday 10th.

What leadership from the CEO and CFO with a purchase of about £160 each…tells you what is wrong with this company. Roll on Adolfo.

Euan Sutherland - a uniquely useless CEO - good riddance! Onwards and upwards.

The only thing I can think of is that some may be disappointed there wasn’t an unscheduled trading update. On 26 Sept they updated the market that first half revenue was up 11.5% on prior year. I believe they would only have to update that if things had changed by +/- 10%. Given some retailers (incl WRKS) have reported a slow start to Christmas I take that as a positive. Also I believe that Nov & December account for almost 40% annual sales so I am still feeling good about this.

Xenor - how can you still be up on this share when it is trading at all time lows?

Thanks Trenners - I still think the PE houses will be running a slide rule over Capita at these prices.

Does anyone know what happened to the rumoured takeover by CVC that the Daily Mail reported? It seemed to go quiet and I can’t find any more info but I see CVC has just closed a €26bn fund.

Lorenzo

One of the (many) reasons I like CARD is that I believe it will soon be back into the FTSE 250 when index funds and other institutions will have to buy in / take notice. A MCap of 500m pounds achieves that. For CARD that is a share price of 146p. If you add the net debt and the lease debt to that (164m), you get 664m pounds. Compare that to the ebitda of 112m and it represents an EV/ebitda ratio of 5.9x. I would pay that every day for a cash generative market leading business especially when it is focussed on the value end of the market. NB They are so much cheaper than the competition that management could imho increase prices further - that would fall straight to the bottom line (after deducting VAT). They talked about restoring dividends in FY25. That sounds like a long way away but the first day of FY 25 (year ending Jan 2025) is actually 1 Feb 2024 - only 9 months from now.
I hear what you say about not waiting for the last penny to sell a share - the same reasoning applies to not waiting for the last penny to buy the share.

Hi Lorenzo - I hear what you are saying but if you believe this can trade up to 150p plus is it worth waiting for an 80p that may never come and potentially miss the jump to 150p. There is not much liquidity here and as someone said on LSE the institutions will take a few days to process the results and to decide to buy in. When they do, the lack of liquidity could mean the share price moves upwards sharply. I am staying in (because of FOMO)

NOFEAR is taking credit for taking the price down but on my screen CPI is actually headed in the other direction almost 2percent up.

Just discovered the filter button and got rid of NOFEAR - much happier now.

So many shortens talking ******. I have bought more today and will continue if the share price falls further.