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This is the kind of thing I'm talking about, all of a sudden we are looking at an accelerated route out of lockdown. As if by magic....it's a rag newspaper report, but it kind of follows my thinking. The market will not wait for flights to resume, it will anticipate that they will and price it in accordingly, way before it happens. I'm saying get in if you don't mind a bit of risk, and it could pay handsomely. Purely speculative of course, and completely based on my own thoughts!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14025299/covid-vaccine-over-65s-letters-inviting-jab-monday/
Though the UK's borders are closed in all-but name, there is hope on the horizon says one travel expert.
Paul Charles, founder of travel consultancy the PC Agency, is confident that holidays will be possible by May:
“If the Government wishes to avoid a swathe of job losses across the aviation and travel sector, then it needs to set out an exit plan for these tougher measures. More testing is the answer in the short-term to preventing further variants, but tests should be done at the airport on arrival and replace quarantine.
There is no way that the Government can stop 40 million vaccinated people living their lives by May – and that includes overseas trips. Otherwise what is the vaccine, that we’ve been promised will unlock normality, for?”
This thread has some sector-specific news on for anyone looking for info........https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/10/travel-news-hotel-quarantine-uk-list-countries-vaccine-passports/
This kind of proves what I'm saying, the pressure will mount from all angles and appears to be ramping up slowly already. The government will have to decide their next course of action soon......."The Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) has called for sector-specific Government support for the travel industry, and a clear exit strategy from the UK's tightening travel restrictions.
A spokesperson told Telegraph Travel:
At present, very few people are going overseas due to the restrictions on travel. However, we will restart travel at some point and any requirement for multiple tests could have serious cost implications for travellers, which will hurt demand, so any new measure needs to be temporary.
Government needs to work with the industry to develop a roadmap to reopen travel. As the vaccine rollout progresses in the UK, it is appropriate that the Government keeps their approach to testing requirements, and other matters, such as vaccine certificates, under careful review to enable international travel to recover while at the same time protecting public health. Wider use of rapid testing methods, providing quicker and cheaper testing, could be part of that solution.
In the meantime, we need to see some recognition from the Government of loss of income and revenue experienced by the travel industry over the last 12 months, by providing tailored financial support to help businesses get through the crisis."
What do you think? Having worked within the field of engineering for over 25 years, I can say this.......Rolls Royce prop up an entire network of engineering companies. Many of them subcontract tens of millions of pounds worth of work for Rolls, every year. I do not know of a single engineering company that doesn't manufacture something for Rolls Royce either directly or indirectly. I'm sure there are some, but you can bet your bottom dollar that they are all pushing to get work from them. If Rolls Royce fails, then the engineering industry in Britain will collapse overnight. Redundancies will go through the roof. Furlough is the only thing propping up many engineering companies linked to Rolls. Pretty soon the government will be under intense pressure to get flights going again. The daily rate of infection is dropping rapidly across the globe and in my opinion, we will be flying far sooner than anticipated. The government will not let Rolls royce collapse, because the financial implications of doing so to our economy and the engineering industry as a whole will be astronimical.
Having looked over the daily coronavirus charts globally. The figures for new cases are now coming down exponentially across the globe. This is the first time it's happened since the start of the pandemic. This gives me some hope that the restrictions could be lifted far sooner than initially anticipated. ie. Jan 7th 843,000 new cases daily.........Feb 7th 361,000 new cases daily. This difference alone is enough to get me excited about a new period of growth and prosperity.
We are definitely heading away from restrictions longer term..... "The news comes as Mr Johnson has said he is "optimistic" people will be able to enjoy a summer holiday this year, but said this was dependent on the success of the vaccine programme and the level of infections coming down."
Bought in at £1.04 and doubled up at today's prices. news out about the potential for a single shot vaccine which is 85% effective, also estimates are that we could all be vaccinated by May, at current vaccination levels.
This year will be the year that we get back to normal for sure. People will be desperate to book holidays, businesses across the UK will start to recover meaning commerical and coroporate flights will start to fill up, and a new cycle will send this share northwards.
Sentiment drives share prices, and for that reason alone I am investing before sentiment turns and I miss the boat!
I cannot pass an opportunity up, and rolls royce at close to £1.00 is a bargain. I see it as a longer term hold. You could not pick a worse time to invest in rr in some peoples opinions. But to me, it's inevitable that this company will recover. I have worked within the field of engineering for over 25 years and feel i know this company well. So to invest when it's on its back a bit seems like the perfect time to gain maximum value. There are risks sure, but I can't see a major downside, especially given that vacinnations are rolling out faster and faster each day. GIve it a few months and I'm sure it will pay off!
Im still not back in and probably wont be for a while, my funds are still tied up in other things!
Finally hearing that AML Gaydon is reopening on the 10th of August, where they make the db11!
Positive news surely for all invested!
I think this was always going to happen, hence why I sold a little early at 59p. On the plus side the automotive industry is picking up slowly. AML parts are still being made at an increasing rate. This whole move is just about raising finance. The main danger is AML going out of business. The short term hit you are taking now is to ensure a sustainable company that will eventually, albeit slowly climb back to where we know it should be. It's bridging a gap between DBX sales being realised and the lack of funding until then. Investors have caution but I still think positivity is warranted, if not more so now. Gaydon still on track to reopen at the end of July. So long as that happens I can see this little move dissipating and the SP should rise. The volatility should lessen, which may turn some people in to longer term share holders, but provide a more definite return by Christmas. If I can get back in at 40p ill fill my boots. It seems unlikely, but I will take the risk of waiting.
The SP is hovering. After days of rises, it's settled into a new range and awaits further news. Still plenty of upside potential. Still lots of possible good news to come. Sentiment changes on a hat. The good thing is that the bad news of late has been priced in, (redundancies etc etc), manufacturing figures show that auto companies are running at around half what they were pre covid-19 through June, July and August,. But that figure is set to improve with Mays figures showing a small recovery compared to April. I think that September will be the crucial month for recovery. I am still out, looking for a possible in again in a few weeks time!
I'm watching from. The sidelines. Hoping to buy back in for under 60p. In all honesty I see a bounce back tommorow after todays panic over the US. The v shaped recovery looking more like a u with global cases still rising overall. A lot of redundancies popping up in manufacturing after the 10th. So it's hard to judge at the moment. Could be a hold and see. I expect optimism to return soon though. Could easily bounce back to 75 -80p by close of play tommorow.
Good to see resilience in the sp. I sold at 59 and expected it to drop today. I'm not going to buy back in now. I'm investing in New equipment for my printing business instead! A quick in and out for 80% profit, so I'll take it and run! All the best to you amlers, the market has shrugged off everything thrown at it so far so hopefully you get your sell price soon!
If you look at active shorts, they have dropped aston martins short by around 2.5 times more than any other company they are currently shorting....you just need good news over weekend and it will rise back to the 58-60 again.
Save this to track shorts .....https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BFXZC448/