Member Info for Billfunk1

I didn't know it was increasing today, no.

I think in such a wacky market like this one has to allow the market to be the arbiter of value. So I take my lead from the golden boy, Mara, and his little brother, Riot. Then you apply penalties for not being on Nasdaq or having your operation in China, or dodgy debt agreements.

But on a very basic level you are either picking the fastest horse or the value horse, or both. How much does each PH cost in terms of MCAP?

The morons in the British Treasury hate bitcoin because they can't f.uck around with it like they can with Sterling.

I sent an email to my MP telling him to tell the Treasury to buy btc when it was 17k and use it to back worthless sterling. The response was that they didn't need need to as everything was under control. Meanwhile they will need to print an extra £1 trillion and counting to deal with COVID. I suggested £100bn. So that's significantly over £100bn they have cost the exchequer for not doing as I instructed them to do.

Morons.

£2.20 factors in the 430PH in Feb. That is my current fair value with btc = $40k

To advance much beyond that PW will need to announce an expansion up to 3.5EH total or more IMO.

Riot = 3.8EH by October 2021

I'm going to use 35PH per million capex.

Our 6m would give us 210PH

I think a raise of $90m would take us over 4EH. If we did raise at $3 it would only be an extra 30m shares.

Correction:

MARA are getting S19s only 70k for $170m = $2428 each for 84TH.

It's not a differentiator as they are not paying stupid for S19 Pros. Who would at that price?

So everyone's electricity costs are between $0.0275 and $0.035 per kWh, new machines are broadly similar hash and efficiencies. Very roughly this is just current hash and expected future hash versus current MCAP.

Electrical capacity seem to be the limiting factor. If I had a shed with 1000MW I know I would want to fill it with second hand S17s.

I always assumed Mara were right to buy the bleeding edge kit because it would future proof them. But now I'm thinking 5X is a huge price to pay for only 57% extra. Could Mara and Riot be making a huge co.ck up in their purchasing here?

No doubt they are getting big discounts. But just how big I wonder?

So I am trying to do some valuations which include future hashrate. Some companies only divulge how much they are raising and not the expected hashrate. So I want to know roughly how much PH a company gets for each $1m raised?

$1m = 111 bitmain S19Pros at $9k each.
These each provide 110TH so 110 X 111 = 12120TH = 12.12PH per million raised

£1m = 556 Bitmain S17s at $1.8k each
70TH x 555 = 38850TH = 38.85PH per million

Please let me know if I am wrong here so I can correct. Just typing as I go along here. Thoughts out loud. But earlier in the year we credited PW with his great frugality. Now I am thinking in this market it is actually a differentiator. It's all well and good Riot and Mara steaming ahead for the Nasdaq fanboi crowd, but ultimately these S19Pros are 5 times the price of the S17s for only 57% extra hash and using slightly more electricity. Is that really worth 5X ?

If money was no object wouldn't you prefer your company to be buying S17s rather than S19Pros?

I have just given the efficiency of the machines. The power costs would be separate from this. I have not been made aware of any sizable differences between all the NA players in this regard. I haven't researched it and am happy to be educated. I have assumed an efficient market in energy where all companies have located to super cheap grids. This may well be a poor assumption to make.

Yet so useful for a small company who owns 5% of ZEC equihashrate

I see people claiming our efficiency is better than Mara or Riot but it won't be true when they get the S19Pros in later in the year. They will give Mara and Riot about 28PH/MW whereas we are on about 21PH/MW with second gen ASICs. We may be getting more than this owing to the recent £100k partnership with the efficiency company. I forget their name.

The money being placed on Mara and Riot is largely a bet on their future value which is worth discounting.

RR - the price is now driven solely by the Americans. I would be happy to be proven wrong but I see London AM flat unless there is the QB RNS. The flash crash killed momentum and we haven't regained it though in this market and sector I wouldn't expect this to last very long at all. I see fair current value at roughly half of one Riot or just under $1bn currently. This gives me a short term price target of $3.

Once there we should be able to get a Nasdaq listing though this is not without danger. We would be late to the Nasdaq crypto party and may face heavy shorting pressure. It depends how ambitious PW is ultimately. It may be wise to remain a nice little frugal crypto mining laggard. Hard to tell at this stage. I would like to know about PW's plans for expansion.

Yes mate, life changing here and my daily Mara spread bet!

I think 6 million might approximate to roughly 100PH worth of S19 Pros though not an expert at all and happy to stand corrected. On that basis we would need 100m+

I know Mara have done several placings to get to 10.34EH. I will dig out the figures.

The Dollar is collapsing because they are expanding the money supply so quickly. Attempting to ban bitcoin would have little effect on that. All that has happened politically is the world has flicked from a democratic hegemony to a fascistic one. This is a good thing for speculators as the money from the wealthy people is in stocks and they will be taken care of in a fascist system.

That's fine but I'm looking at future growth now. Both Mara and Riot have announced future expansions and the market has responded strongly. Without at least an announcement of a 2021 expansion to 3EH+ it will be hard to value this alongside Riot.

Currently I think it's worth half of one Riot given most of their kit isn't arriving until October. But if we can expand to 3.5EH by EOY we should command the same value.

So naturally I am speculating as from where we can secure this electricity and these machines.

Krautyankee - the thing is when all crypto miners are looking to expand why would Core Scientific want to give up a large fraction of their energy capacity? I can see them leasing off small parts so as to optimise and sweat their assets but to give up meaningful amounts would be to cede power to the opposition.

Ultimately the 400MW belongs to CoreScientific for the foreseeable. They have 113,000 machines so would an unlikely takeover target for Argo.

Ian. If you hold this until at least Nov/Dec this year you will make a good profit. Easy to say, hard to do in practice. You have a good price so the volatility now shouldn't bother you too much.

We have two problems as far as I can see. One is we have just about reached our energy capacity. The other is that Mara and Riot have got dibs on all the Bitmain stock.

I would expect we can source source slightly less efficient ASICs from Canaan or Ebang but I don't know much about the electricity supply. No point buying extra machines if we can't plug them in!

Riot has 550PH rising to 3.5EH in October 2021.

We have 645PH rising to 1.075EH in Feb.

I think we are worth about one half of one Riot conservatively. PW needs to outline 2021 expansion plans.

Very clear now. US up, UK up. US up, UK up, US flash crash, UK down.

The price is being driven by the Americans. Thank God.