Member Info for Billfunk1

It's not clear that you appreciate the difference between the present and the future. There isn't $3tn-$5tn of value currently in bitcoin so it's unlikely you will see the whole float traded twice over every day. But as speculators we must look to the future. Is a 1980 computer the same as a 2025 computer?

You are effectively arguing for Bitcoin being undervalued rather than having anything fundamental against it.

If you are conflating bitcoin with 20k+ other cryptocurrencies then you are dreadfully under-researched here.

Bitcoin's volatility is largely due to its tiny size (a $200tn+ asset trading at $2tn) currently in its speculative phase prior to becoming the established money of the world.

Bitcoin is regulated by code which is far superior to having the FCA attempt to do it.

The US should issue bitcoin bonds and save themselves. Then dump gold and buy bitcoin with it, largely demonitising it and screwing China.

All your fiat BS is eventually going to zero.

This has very little to do with their web3 offerings. It's about transmitting MCAP value into bitcoin as aggressively as possible. Over the last few years we can observe that this is done most efficiently around 2-3x mNAV

No 9x mNAV is far too high. They would be leaving too many bitcoin for other people. Saylor keeps his around 2x and he's the best at this with the strongest MCAP-to-HODL transmission.

Still £1bn+ MCAP

Proportional to their nano MCAPs I am speculating that there will be a huge amount of new money invested in both SWC and COIN which will greatly increase their MCAPs like Metaplanet (who grew from $20m to $2bn very quickly).

Ask yourself what happens to a £10m stock when you force £50m into it? Or £50m into a £50m stock. Add in extra retail interest. Add potential uplift to FTSE and the passive forced flows from pension schemes and ETF tracker funds.

It is only speculation as I do not have 20/20 vision into the future but currently these are 2 of 3 (Vinanz also iirc) bitcoin treasury stocks listed in the UK. If British institutions want bitcoin proxy exposure then it stands to reason these are their only options. Or perhaps every British institution completely ignores every bitcoin proxy stock forever? I would think that unlikely.

Andrew Webley just said something to the effect that he is very bullish on Institutional buy in to SWC. I remember seeing a seminar/meeting in Gibralter (memory sketchy) where JVS and Webley both spoke. I speculate that they are aiming to play a similar playbook and if Andrew is bullish on tutes then JVS will also be targeting tutes. I think we will be looking at ballpark £100m of new capital here which will flow into SWC and COIN.

If they can get it done and maintain a functional flywheel then the potential is £1bn+ MCAPs in the long run. Please refer to 3350

Https://x.com/ourgoodlifeuk/status/1923408234389410055

Well worth a listen. Key for me was how bullish they are on institutional buy-in. Just to re-iterate this has the potential to be a £1bn+ company.

I love analysts. Target 38.40 lol. I know it's how they have to be but they sound like clowns putting such pathetic targets on stuff like this. Either the market grants them an 2x+ mNAV and they can deploy the Saylor flywheel in which case they will be a £1bn+ company. OR the useless degenerates in the City smash their mNAV to 1x and deprive them of the flywheel and almost freeze bitcoin additions. In which case the market will value them at their hodl. It's one or the other but certainly not 38.40. At least it's a buy.

To be fair if they both aggressively adopt the Saylor flywheel strategy they will both easily 10x and even 100x. SWC is sat just below 10x right now after a dip today. They both have the potential to be £1bn companies in the long term.

I suspect that was before he discovered bitcoin.

Comparing a bitcoin treasury company to a gold miner is like comparing a Bugatti to a dead horse.

No need to wait. MSTR have deployed this strategy extremely successfully and can be purchased in a UK ISA. Metaplanet in Japan have also successfully adopted bitcoin and can be purchased in a UK ISA. There are about 80 companies worldwide who have adopted the bitcoin standard with varying degrees of success, most of which will be accessible in an ISA.

Any company CAN adopt the bitcoin standard whether they DO or not is a different thing altogether. In future many companies WILL adopt bitcoin.

It's past hasn't passed. They had to dump all their bitcoin. Now they have nothing apart from a sub par mining operation in the most competitive industry in the world. You're telling me ARB are a better bet than MSTR?

Long term this is dead. Mining is a far inferior business to simply holding the bitcoin on treasury. ARB have never made a profit and no longer hold any bitcoin. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to invest here versus several very strong alternatives namely MSTR, CEF-XXI, ASST, even SWC are significantly better than ARB.. You would have to be touched by madness to invest in ARB today.

The whole strategy is that they DO dilute their shareholders in fiat terms to accrete bitcoin value. It's very deliberate.

Some of you are harbouring the misapprehension that it's somehow a bad thing that anyone can buy bitcoin when in fact that's the beauty of it. Everyone WILL be buying. There is a first mover advantage here whilst spot bitcoin is discounted 99%. If companies could buy gold for $35 an ounce and then wait, I would be buying them too. If I could buy a few acres of Manhattan in the 19th century and wait, I would do that too.

So long as they don't overleverage then they are diamonds not houses of cards. They will always be worth their hodl (minus debts). Miners may spike but their lunch will always be eaten by rising global hashrate and consequent lowering of hashprice. Being a bitcoin treasury company is the easiest business in the world; being a bitcoin miner is the hardest. Miners will underperform treasuries 99% of the time because the market will always tend to allocate capital to the best quality business.

Just need a 2x mNAV and the ability to dilute it in fiat terms and convert that value into bitcoin. Currently the mNAV is about 50x so they have plenty of capital. Mining bitcoin is an awful proposition.

I thought I just did. In the UK the transmission mechanisms from MC to bitcoin are slow and clunky. Bitcoiners are generally happy to wait. I'm surprised there hasn't been much of a correction yet. Likely most shareholders have low time preference like me and can wait it out.