Member Info for BillBursio

I was very surprised to read this, having bought in only a few months ago. I had planned to keep this for a few years, expecting its fair value to be realised. A DCF calculation puts current fair value at over £4. Looking further ahead suggests an even bigger rise. Why would anybody sell at today's very undervalued price? But I see a couple of very big trades went through during the closing auction. Is this just just a cunning plan by management to raise MEGP's profile? Tomorrow, I think I'll "buy the rumour."

Well, at long last I received my UUUU shares at Lloyds. I have just been doing the sums. In November, the UUUU SP was up at $7.29. Today it is at a miserable $4.79. Where have these shares been for the last 5 months and what makes me think I have been stitched up?

That's a good point about the name change(s). It hasn't helped the SP and probably made it even worse. Looking back, I see that the SP has never recovered since the GFC in 2007/8. Before that, it was trading at around £25. Since then, it has just bumped along. I held the share and made a couple of quid in 2022/3, but was glad to sell at 418p. Today's price is very tempting, but as earnings per share appear to be in decline and with very slim dividend cover ....?

Does anybody know if there is much refinancing on the horizon?

I have just read an SP forecast of over $8 for Energy Fuels. I don't understand why so many people have not been credited yet. UUUU up 2.76% as I write

Lloyds/Halifax say they haven't received it yet. Would the irritating withholding tax be an issue?

I find it very hard to believe a number of claims in the Sky article:
"a Thurso-based firm with a history going back to the very earliest days of lithium ion batteries", and
"some of the world's very first lithium ion batteries were made at its Thurso plant."
I checked with Co. House and there seem to have other, now dissolved companies, called AMTE. The current one appears to have been incorporated in 2013.
This is many years after the invention of the Li-on battery in 1976 and quite a long time after the first commercial effort by Sony in 1991. One would have thought, after such a long focus on this technology, that the company would have made much more progress towards financial independence. The fact that it hasn't gained traction with the market says it all. Amte has failed to impress the market and now has its begging bowl out. Let Biden waste American taxpayers' money if he wants to. He isn't going to be around to see if he was right, or not.

On the other hand, I've been looking at the wholesale electricity forecasts for Europe. I get the impression that high prices are expected to remain until summer 2024. So, supply constraints may outweigh lower demand. I think I'm miffed about it because I tend to rely on TRIG as a low risk place to park cash.

Amircat, you are probably right. I am always slightly behind the curve.

Can anybody shed any light on the £3m worth of shares traded at 129.60 after the market closed, at 16:51. That's quite a big number.

What the .... is going on? Solid results and a big fall. Topped up at 129 only a few days ago and now substantially in the red.
I'm totally disgusted. The market is insane! Or is it me? It has been said that horses must be more intelligent than humans because they never bet on people.

TheTrotsky, I took your advice and downloaded the '22 annual. It's a massive read at about 100 pages, far too long IMHO. Far too many moving parts in this company. What I did notice was that the overall costs are very high. The direct cost of sales seemed not too bad, but the indirect costs were big. I suppose this means rents, wages, heating and so on.
I take your points regarding the important social role this company plays and its reliance on payments from the public purse. In all seriousness, perhaps it would be better off operating as a charity, like the Nuffield, or some construct like Welsh Water. I don't believe it can compete in the crowded digital payments arena, given its shortage of working capital. The lack of investment in research and development also surprised me. I'm not hostile towards PAY. I would like to buy, but haven't found an opportunity. As time goes by, I doubt this will happen, but it would be shame to lose it.

"... a lot of people on low pay are denied access to anything other than a basic bank account - they are not considered credit worthy."
We're not talking about obtaining credit, but a basic Post Office account allows you to to pay bills at zero cost. I would certainly feel uncomfortable about skimming money from the poor. But, as you have explained, that is PAY's business model.

Are you saying that PayPoint is a service aimed at poor people and those in receipt of benefits? My point is that the credits have to come from some kind of account, via card, phone, PayPal, bits of paper, vouchers or, whatever. I still don't understand why I would need PayPoint, unless all I had was bits of paper. Why wouldn't I just pay directly? Of course, I understand that some people have only cash and may be reluctant to open a bank account, but these don't seem a very sound clientele. As to whatever plans for the future the BoD may have, my focus is on the existing track record in terms of hard numbers. When I see declining values over a 5-year span, I worry that this isn't a normal turnaround situation. I see quality in this company, but little growth and erratic earnings. I would have a go if it were a penny stock, but the thought of paying stamp duty leaves me cold. But it may be less than a quid one day, so who knows?

According to the Guardian (18/08/22), "the number of people turning their backs on cash surged in 2021."
Relying on findings by the banking body UK Finance, the report indicates that "more than 23 million people in the UK used virtually no cash last year, while notes and coins will account for just 6% of payments within a decade."
I have watched this share fall over the last two years from over £10 to its current price, all the time wondering where the bottom might be. I asked my newsagent if many of his customers used PayPoint and he said "Hardly anybody." He seemed to think that most people pay using their phones.
In 2021, the proportion of the population using a smart phone was 88% (Uswitch). A year later, it had risen to 93% (Statista).
Then, when you look at the 5-year CAGR figures, you can see the effect of all this. PayPoint may offer an attractive divvy (poorly covered) , but there's not much point if the SP keeps falling by more.
I think I'll keep it on the watch list for another year or two, but I doubt the current takeover will make much difference.

Do you honestly believe this is going back to to the 30 quid it was at, not that long ago? I paid about 1048p about three years ago and kept them for about 18 months. When I sold them, I thought they were too expensive. I couldn't believe it when they carried on rising. I now avoid shares that don't pay a dividend. After 10 years, a share that doesn't isn't really investable IMHO.

Dear Fibonacci112, I never look at "Investors' Pages", because they are written by servants of the company.

Sorry Infor, I didn't realise this was a place where one had to toe some kind of party line. Your suggestion that I "go somewhere else" is rather intolerant. I don't hold this share and have no axe to grind. I am merely trying to work out whether to buy it (or not). I did take a quick profit off it a few months ago, but since then it has fallen and then showed a "death cross", back in November. Actually, there seem to be two death crosses and two golden crosses in the last year. Quite a roller-coaster, which would, no doubt, explain the rather high beta value of 7.297.

Many thanks Kign. I didn't understand that it was previously Premier and that they were effectively taken over by a private equity group. The figures didn't make sense to me. I wasn't looking at energy stocks then, being more inclined towards miners. But obviously, oilers and gassers have become more prominent since Russia .... etc., etc.
Does this HBR have real prospects? Many here seem to think so. But I have seen 12-month forecasts of between 300p and 650p. I think they will have to pay down most of their debt before free cash takes off. How long might this take, and will gas prices be this high in a year or so?

The figure I have for shares outstanding in 2020 was 35m. In 2021 it was 873m. If not dilutive, was there a placing?

Well, perhaps not half, but close to a third. Perhaps this company should be considered like an AIM share. Personally, I would hate to pay stamp duty on this share.