FT9 Jun 2020 21:44
“To sellside, and Metro Bank goes down to “sell” at Investec. The upshot is that in spite of everything it remains as close to becoming a functioning metro as a functional bank. Even at 0.2x 2020e tNAV it’s not a bargain when you have to wait for 2024 for any kind of profit, Investec says:
When Metro Bank launched ten years ago in Holborn it embarked on an epic journey to win “fans” and change the face of British banking. This week, as it opens its second store in Cardiff, (store No.76 in the UK), complete with drivethru service, from a customer perspective, the Metro story continues to thrive. It now boasts over 2 million customer accounts. However, the path back to profitability still appears much more problematic, and as such, following a 6- day 54% share price bounce, on 0.2x 2020e tNAV, we cut to Sell (from Buy).
... In essence, although Metro’s “static” capital position was strong at 31 Dec 2019 (CET1 capital ratio 15.6%), it needs to conserve capital to absorb (1) planned investment spend through 2020-23 to “retool” the business, and (2) a LOKIN-20 IFRS9 impairment charge in H1 2020. As such, it has been shrinking the loan book (on a net basis) over the past four quarters and we do not expect it to recommence growth until 2021e.
... Metro is, in its existing format and in the current low interest rate environment, “structurally” loss-making. Its cost of deposits rose sharply during 2019 following the “RWA miscategorisation” debacle which was disclosed in January 2019. In this regard it has, we believe, turned the corner, with three consecutive quarters of net deposit inflows, with marginal deposits once again being sourced through current account and “relationship” deposits rather than relying on expensive fixed term products. However, Metro has yet to rebalance its loan portfolio to enhance yield. It is heavily underweight consumer lending.”
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/09/1591698256000/Markets-Now---Tuesday-9th-June-2020/