Member Info for bignose58

Bothwell,

If JM had an ounce of business sense, he would have gotten rid of Jamie and the BOD a long time ago and replaced them all with competent people with the necessary Pharma experience. That said, I am pretty sure its all ticking away nicely in the background.

The only reason I see for the lack of an update is because of the rights issue, which I am pretty sure was played (no updates in the prospectus) to enable JM to effectively own the company without any opposition from pi's buying shares. Too many questions would be asked if, just after the manipulated SP, announcements were made which rerated the sp.

Mind you, If this takes off, which I am sure it will, JM will become a multi-billionaire which will certainly impress all his mates.....lol

Although I cannot see any problems with the China approval process since it’s being run by a third party and out of the hands of incompetence, I don’t have faith in ERPs own efforts in progressing the FDA approval process given it’s taken 4 and a half years from the first announcement on phase II start and we still have not had a go ahead to start phase iii, which beggars belief.

Morning The.Italian, yup just seen it and as I was expecting absolute zilch in content. More shenanigans going on given there should be much positive news waiting in the wings ( of course it could indicate it’s not that positive). Anyones guess really.

So I guess we must now wait for the annual report.

Indeed. And not forgetting the completion of the Chinese phase iii recruitment.

I expect there may be something, like some previous years. “Profit warning and operational update”

I still cannot understand why the DLI team didn’t appear to take up their shares (as far as I could see only one of the investors was listed as taking up the rights), particularly since they would appear to be throwing their investment in Longevity down the pan, unless they were part of the 18 unlisted uk investors ?

Although the initial batches for China came from PSNW, they will certainly arrange their own home manufacturer for the sales launch, especially since they are targetting 9mill sufferers in the first year (remember, most sufferers could well want more than one can/year = poss 18mill or more.
PSNW can only produce 8mill cans/Year on the current manufacturing line, although I'm uncertain about the Italian manufacturer. I would expect a possible delay if they are going through an upscaling and reapproval process. I would suspect that PSNW may well be kicked into touch following their inability to solve the impurities issue.

Something really strange going on with the ASX sp and market cap calculation, which I had noticed before. Current sp = 3.935 (as I write), yet market cap = 660mill, however. Last Friday when I posted on sp level, it had just touched 4 and market cap was just under 600mill, which makes no sense.

Because the market wasn't closed all week. Why don't you check out the HKSX holiday schedule - just google it ?

Up over 12% today. Back to 4 AU$ and a market cap close to 600 mill.

I assume this could be due to China opening up ? Could this be an indication of what may happen to ERPs sp once news is announced about the China submission ? Fingers n legs crossed it just may be ;-)

Could well be, although the Omen was about the antichrist …lol

Whoops , I got that post wrong too. Submission b4 mid year and approval b4 year end. Must surely be the tablets I’m on…….lol

Exactly….. ;-)

Mornimng The.Italian,

You are indeed correct, my bad. I meant to write that submission should be submitted before mid year with approval before the end of the year.

Dougie, there is a good chance of approval before the end of the year since the Chinese do appear to be on the ball and on track. They managed to process nigh on 280 subjects (phase I and III) within the announced timeline, which is amazing if one looks at the FDA phase II process currently in its 4year. As such, I feel there is a real good possibility of approval by year end. Of course, all speculation on my part, but based on how they still progressed through their COVID lockdowns etc, I see no reason for it not be a real possibility.

I also feel continued news on the NMPA progress starting with the trials completion announcement (not all Chinese are aware of the trials progress website, although some may already be following given the recent buy activity) could bump-start a gradual rerate towards H2 and then continue following an NMPA submission announcement towards year end. And if luck is with us, we may expect a sales commencement by the end of the year, assuming they start getting everything in place beforehand.

AIMHO, but could pretty well happen.

"Gong Xi Fa Cai" :-)

Of course there is news and certainly no excuses in JG performing his Fiduciary duties in providing an op update.

We know the product received approval of an import license in June 2022 for Singapore (JG seems to think it is not of financial importance, yet they did announce about the Macau and HK submissions which are less so, particularly since it took twice as long for the approval)- meaning there is no consistency.

We know from the Chinese medical website that the phase III recruitment process finished last year and from that the documentation is in the process of being collated ready for submission. Once approval is given, which should be by mid year if not before, PLE/ERP will receive:

A payment of up to US$6,000,000 as a registration milestone upon receipt from NMPA of the approval of an import drug license in respect of a licensed product.

A payment of US$2,000,000 upon the First Commercial Sale in the Territory. ( this could be this year if they have made the preparations and pull their fingers out)

They will be initially targeting 9million sufferers in the first year, which, given the content in previous announcements will be about 2/3rds of the US cost/can (i.e 100 USD/can). which could be 900mill USD, however. I would suspect this is be on the very optimistic side., although Wanberg should surely know their own market possibilities.

Certainly 2023 could be a good year and a significant change in ERP's fortunes.

That said; given the agreement states:
PLE would receive 25 percent of net receipts and tiered percentage royalties on net sales, ranging from the low to high teens, except that lower payment structures will apply in certain circumstances where a generic product has successfully entered and impacted the market in the Territory (this, I would speculate, could take a few years to reach a conclusion)

So, even with 13% (lowest teen) on say 50% of the 9mill and neglecting the 25% of net receipts, that still would give an income of close to 60 mill usd in the first year of sales. This could lift the SP significantly depending on the P/E ratio considered attributable in HK.

http://www.endurancerp.com/ICMServlet/download/13-2210-3602/EAnnt-FosunLicenceAgreement(03Dec2018).pdf

I'm not considering the US since its driven by the company and from history I expect there to be more delays and ccok-ups (remember it should have been approved mid 2017 based on an unambiguous FDA way forward). That and the possibility the phase III and submission could take a further 2 to 3 years to reach any conclusion.

Certainly appears that the Chinese submission, which was touted by JG to be full of bureaucratic red tape, is the market to reach a conclusion first. The FDA approval process has been nothing other than an a disappointment driven by incompetence.

Anyway, onwards and upwards with China and sideways with the US.

The.Italian,

You wrote “for fda”, but really meant “for fcuks sake” lol

Don’t mention taxidermy since anything with the word tax in it will cause JM and JG to both have heart attacks…….lol

The.Italian,

Curating indeed. Since it’s taken them so long with anything and everything, they would be better calling the company ERP Museum. :-)

And I really liked your slight Freudian slip re the fda. (no change on the QC status for fcuks sake) …lol Or was it a case of “dyslexia rule KO”….lol

Morning The.Italian,

I see DVP has had a nice consistent rise since mid Dec. It has just passed the 600mill AUS$ Market cap mark. I bet the A team are kicking themselves for being impatient and selling too soon…… lol

The usual manipulative ERP 10k share buy at close today taking the sp back in a positive direction. I’m sure it will bounce around like this till the long overdue update is given.

CNY this weekend so the whole of China will be on a go slow for the next week or two. I wonder how the submission is progressing? ;-)

The.Italian,

You are correct. It is of no significance. He is still working on the FDA approval process.

I’m only guessing here, but I cannot help but feel phase iii may have already started. I only write this since there has been a total block on information and given that it’s Dr Mike who updates the gov website, I would suspect that he has been advised to not do so.

I could be totally wrong, but I can’t for the life of me see why there have been no updates regarding the Q&A process.

Just my opinion on the matter of course ;-)

Both well,

Given that there will be less free shares in circulation, surely sp movements could be more volatile. Yes there are double the number of shares, but effectively most are now out of circulation being held by the A team.

But I do agree that he must feel it’s worth holding on to, although his investment is still pocket change to him. (Especially since he must realise only a few LTH’s were willing to invest hence the huge underwriting of the shares which are on him).

Ok, thanks for the heads up.